XXXX年8月更新的预算报告原文

AUGUST2015AnUpdatetotheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2015to2025Providedasaconvenience,this“screen-friendly”versionisidenticalincontenttotheprincipal,“print-friendly”versionofthereport.Anytables,figures,andboxesappearattheendofthisdocument;clickthehyperlinkedreferencesinthetexttoviewthem.Notes:Unlessotherwiseindicated,allyearsreferredtoindescribingthebudgetoutlookarefederalfiscalyears,whichrunfromOctober1toSeptember30,andaredesignatedbythecalendaryearinwhichtheyend.Yearsreferredtoindescribingtheeconomicoutlookarecalendaryears.Numbersinthetextandtablesmaynotadduptototalsbecauseofrounding.Also,somevaluesareexpressedasfractionstoindicatenumbersroundedtoamountsgreaterthanone-tenthofapercentagepoint.Somefiguresinthisreporthaveverticalbarsthatindicatethedurationofrecessions.(Arecessionextendsfromthepeakofabusinesscycletoitstrough.)TheeconomicforecastwascompletedinearlyJuly,and,unlessotherwiseindicated,estimatespresentedinChapter2andAppendixBofthisreportarebasedoninformationavailableatthattime.Inparticular,theeconomicforecastdescribedinthisreportdoesnotreflecttheannualrevisionstothenationalincomeandproductaccounts,whichwerereleasedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysisonJuly30.InChapter2,onlyfiguresanddiscussionsofrecenteventsareconsistentwiththereviseddata.TheimplicationsofthoserevisionsforCBO’sprojectionsaredescribedinBox2-1.Asreferredtointhisreport,theAffordableCareActcomprisesthePatientProtectionandAffordableCareAct(PublicLaw111-148),thehealthcareprovisionsoftheHealthCareandEducationReconciliationActof2010(P.L.111-152),andtheeffectsofsubsequentjudicialdecisions,statutorychanges,andadministrativeactions.SupplementaldataforthisanalysisareavailableonCBO’swebsite(),asisaglossaryofcommonbudgetaryandeconomicterms().CBOANUPDATETOTHEBUDGETANDECONOMICOUTLOOK:2015TO2025AUGUST20152SummaryAccordingtotheCongressionalBudgetOffice’sestimates,thisyear’sdeficitwillbenoticeablysmallerthanwhattheagencyprojectedinMarch,andfiscalyear2015willmarkthesixthconsecutiveyearinwhichthedeficithasdeclinedasapercentageofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)sinceitpeakedin2009.Overthenext10years,however,thebudgetoutlookremainsmuchthesameasCBOdescribedearlierthisyear:Ifcurrentlawsgenerallyremainunchanged,withinafewyearsthedeficitwillbegintoriseagainrelativetoGDP,andby2025,debtheldbythepublicwillbehigherrelativetothesizeoftheeconomythanitisnow.CBO’seconomicforecast,whichservesasthebasisforitsbudgetprojections,anticipatesthattheeconomywillexpandmodestlythisyear,atasolidpaceincalendaryears2016and2017,andatamoremoderatepaceinsubsequentyears.Thepaceofgrowthoverthenextfewyearsisexpectedtoreducethequantityofunderusedresources,or“slack,”intheeconomy,loweringtheunemploymentrateandputtingupwardpressureoncompensationaswellasoninflationandinterestrates.TheBudgetDeficitfor2015WillBeSmallerThanLastYear’sAt$426billion,CBOestimates,the2015deficitwillbe$59billionlessthanthedeficitlastyear(whichwas$485billion)and$60billionlessthanCBOestimatedinMarch(seeSummaryTable1).1Theexpectedshortfallfor2015wouldconstitutethesmallestsince2007,andat2.4percentofgrossdomesticproduct,itwouldbebelowtheaveragedeficit(relativetothesizeoftheeconomy)overthepast50years.Debtheldbythepublicwillremainaround74percentofGDPbytheendof2015,CBOestimates—slightlylessthantheratiolastyearbuthigherthaninanyotheryearsince1950.OutlaysFederaloutlaysareprojectedtoriseby5percentthisyear,to$3.7trillion,or20.6percentofGDP.Thatincreaseisthenetresultofanearly10percentjumpinmandatoryspending,offsetbylowernetinterestpaymentsanddiscretionaryoutlays.CBOanticipatesthatmandatoryoutlayswillbe$199billionhigherin2015thantheywerelastyear.Federalspendingforthemajorhealthcareprogramsaccountsforalittlemorethanhalfofthatincrease:OutlaysforMedicare(netofpremiumsandotheroffsettingreceipts),Medicaid,theChildren’sHealthInsuranceProgram,andsubsidiesforhealthinsurancepurchasedthroughexchangesandrelatedspendingareexpectedtobe$110billion(12percent)higherthisyearthantheywerein2014.1.ForCBO’sprojectionsinMarch,seeCongressionalBudgetOffice,UpdatedBudgetProjections:2015to2025(March2015),:2015TO2025AUGUST20153Inaddition,outlaysrelatedtothegovernment’stransactionswithFannieMaeandFreddieMacandforhighereducationprogramswillbegreaterthantheamountsrecordedlastyear.2Thoseincreaseswillbepartiallyoffsetbyincreasedreceiptsfromauctionsoflicensestousetheelectromagneticspectrumandbyreducedspendingforunemploymentcompensation.Eventhoughfederalborrowingcontinuestorise,CBOexpectsthatthegovernment’snetinterestcostswillfallbynearly5percentthisyear—mainlybecauselowerinflationthisyearhasreducedthecostoftheTreasury’sinflation-protectedsecurities.CBOanticipatesthatdiscretionaryspending,whichiscontrolledthroughannualappropriations,willbeabout1percentlessin2015thanitwasin2014.Bytheagency’sestimates,defenseoutlayswilldropbymorethan2percent,whereasnondefensediscretionaryoutlayswillbeonlyslightlybelowlastyear’samount.RevenuesFederalrevenuesareexpectedtoclimbb