XXXX年中国房产开发商展望报告_33页_英文版

October21,2010China:RealEstateDevelopers2011outlook:Volumenamestooutperform;BuyEvergrande,VankePricestodecline;achievingvolumeisthekeygrowthdriverWethinkthetug-of-warbetweenthegovernment,developers,andhomebuyersmaycontinueforsometime,butinalocalcentralgovernmentsynchronizedpolicyenvironmentandwithgraduallyrationalizinghomebuyersentiment,weexpectdevelopers’weakeningbalancesheets,butrisinginventorytoeventuallyhaveaneffectonsellingprices.Weexpectpropertypricestodecline20%fromcurrentlevelsoverthenext12months.Weretainour10%p.a.priceincreaseforecastfor2012E/2013Easwebelievepricerecoveryinfuturewillbelimitedbygovernmentpoliciesuntilameaningfulscaleofsocialhousingisbuilt.Consequently,webelieveachievingassetturnoverwillbecomemoreimportantthanpricewhenitcomestodrivingearningsgrowthandstockvaluations.Keythemes:Exposuretocentral/westernChina,brand,strongB/SWeexpectourcoverageuniversetoincreasemarketshareamidaprolongedindustryslowdownandtoimprovetheirmedium-termearningsgrowthvisibility.Inparticular,wearemorepositiveonnamesthatare(1)rapidlyexpandingtheirexposuretocentralandwesternChinaand(2)focusingonimprovingtheirproductquality/propertymanagementtoenhanceproductattraction.Moreover,webelievethatlisteddevelopers(3)withstrongbalancesheets,goodaccesstocapital,andstrongexecutionskillsaremorelikelytobeindustryconsolidatorsinthefuture.Rollingovervaluationsto2011E;preferEvergrandeandVanke(A)Weintroduce(1)ourend-2011ENAVestimates,whichnowfactorsinournewpriceassumptions(largelythesamemagnitudeasourpreviousestimatebutpushedbackto2011),furtherRmbappreciation,andrecentacquisitionsbydevelopersand(2)ourscorecardfordevelopersbasedonthekeythemesabove.Asaconsequence,weadjustourTPdiscounttoNAVbasedonthescorecardby+/-10ppt,reviseourTPsforthesectorbyanaverageof27%,andreviseour2010E-2012EunderlyingEPSforecastby8%-14%.WeupgradeCountryGardenandSino-OceantoBuy;FortetoNeutral;removeSZIfromourConvictionSellListbutmaintainourSellratingonthestock;downgradePowerlongtoNeutral;retainourBuyratingsonEvergrande(onBuy,CL),Agile,CRL,PolyHK;VankeA/B(AisonBuy,CL),Poly,Gemdale,andFantasia.Evergrande,andVankeAremainourtopBuys(onBuy,CL);retainourSellratingsonGreentown,OCT,CWTC,andIFM.IFMisourtopSell(onSell,CL).Keyrisks:Upside:Stronger-than-expectedvolumegrowth;potentialM&A.Downside:Unexpectedgovernmentpolicytighteningandamacrohardlanding.OURBASE,BEAR-CASEVALUATIONS*DenotesthatthisstockisonourRegionalConvictionList.B=Buy,N=Neutral,S=Sell.Source:Datastream,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates.RELATEDRESEARCHSept29,2010,ReiterationoftighteningonfiveaspectsSept20,2010,Socialhousing-AnewgrowthfocusSept20,2010,Triptakeaways:volumerecoverytosustainunlesspolicieschangeJune24,2010,Short-termpain,long-termgain(Part2);preferEvergrande,Vanke(A)May19,2010,Short-termpain,long-termgain;addEvergrande,VankeAtoC-BuyFebruary22,2010,Reshufflingpicksonnewrisk/rewardanalysisamidtighteningYiWang,CFA+86(21)[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetext.OtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgoto(10)[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedVickyLi+86(21)[e-mail]sCompanyLimitedTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.GlobalInvestmentResearch19/OctRatingLCYPotentialupside/downsideImpliedupside/downsideFantasia1777.HKBHK$2.4279%2.1056%Evergrande3333.HKB*HK$5.0854%3.8116%Agile3383.HKBHK$14.6038%10.51-1%Vanke(A)000002.SZB*Rmb12.6833%8.84-7%PolyHK0119.HKBHK$11.2428%8.942%SinoOcean3377.HKBHK$7.2327%6.8019%Poly600048.SSBRmb19.0025%14.15-7%Gemdale600383.SSBRmb9.0024%7.969%Vanke(B)200002.SZBHK$13.5823%11.061%CountryGarden2007.HKBHK$3.5022%2.44-15%CRL1109.HKBHK$19.8119%15.01-10%COLI0688.HKNHK$19.7716%15.99-6%Franshion0817.HKNHK$2.829%2.58-1%E-HouseEJNUS$19.978%16.70-10%Powerlong1238.HKNHK$2.457%2.353%YanlordYNLG.SINS$1.917%1.70-5%Forte2337.HKNHK$2.506%2.16-9%SOHO0410.HKNHK$6.725%5.61-12%R&F2777.HKNHK$12.654%10.85-11%Shimao0813.HKNHK$13.771%11.15-19%FinancialStreet000402.SZNRmb7.50-1%7.09-6%ShuiOnLand0272.HKNHK$4.15-2%3.77-11%Huafa600325.SSNRmb12.80-2%12.38-5%KWG1813.HKNHK$6.50-3%5.40-19%CMP(A)000024.SZNRmb18.80-6%18.09-9%Greentown3900.HKSHK$8.19-9%6.42-29%SZInv0604.HKSHK$2.40-16%1.94-32%CWTC600007.SSSRmb10.01-17%9.80-19%OCT000069.SZSRmb11.50-18%11.29-19%IFMCTCS*US$3.95-29%3.30-41%Average11%-7%12-MtargetpriceBear-casevaluation渐飞研究报告-:RealEstateDevelopersGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2TableofcontentsOverview:Stilladifficultpathahead;volumenamestooutperform2 Finetuneourforecasts;rolloverNAV-basedTPstoend-2011E6 Pricetodeclineonacc