5G行业海外专题一5G频谱划分落定运营商设备投入未来三年CAGR有望超2020181210

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-海外行业深度研究报告Overweight（Maintained）[e-mail]@[e-mail]:S0190510110012SFC:BIS749Drivenby“Higherspeedwithlowerprice”,thedemandofdataflowhasincreasedsignificantly,theexpansionof4Gnetworkandtheconstructionof5Gnetworkisurgent.BySeptemberof2018,China’sDOUhasachieved5.15GB,andYoYis162.5%.Thesignificantincreasementofdataflowisduetothegovernmentrequirementof“Higherspeedwithlowerprice”.Afterthe4Gnetworkusageexceeds70%,telecomoperatorsshouldexpand4Gnetwork.Basedonthepresentnumberof4Gbasestations,themaximumDOUitcanhandleis11GB,whichmeansthattheexpansionof4Gnetworkisofgreaturgency.Howeverthereexistsmaximumdatacapacityfor4Gnetwork,simpleexpansioncannotsatisfytheincreasementofdataflow.5Gnetworkcandrasticallyincreasethedatacapacity,thus,itsconstructionisvitalandurgent.Werecommendcloselyattentionofthreeinvestmentpoints:theofficialdeterminationof5Gradiofrequencydivision;thetimewhen5Gequipmentpurchasebeginsandindustrialorderisplaced;massiveconstructionof5Gnetworkincorecities.Theworkingfrequenciesof5Gnetworkaredifferent,andthiswillleadtodifferentequipmentdesignandpurchaseofcomponents.Thus,theradiofrequencydivisiondeterminesthestandardofprocurement.Oncetheradiofrequencydivisionisdetermined,thetelecomoperatorscanstarttorealizenetworklayout.Theimportanceofradiofrequencydivisionislargerthanissuinglicensesanditindicatesthattheinitialconstructionof5Gnetworkbegins.Accordingtotheconstructionpaceof3Gand4G,thetelecomoperatorswillinvitepublicbiddinghalfayeartooneyearbeforeissuingthelicense.Atthattime,theindustrialorderwillbeofficiallyplaced,andthebonusbroughtby5Gconstructionisrealized.Besides,therevenueincreasementoftelecomequipmentindustrywillstart.However,duetothehighconstructioncostof5Gnetwork,itwillnotbeconstructedinalargescalealloverChinaimmediately.Thetelecomoperatorsprefertoconstruct5Gnetworkincorecitiesandareastosatisfythedatarequirement.Themassiveconstructionof5Gnetworkincoreareaswillalsoleadtotheacceleratingincreasementofequipmentorders.Underneutralforecasting,webelieve2018-21theCAPEXoftelecomoperatorswillbe291.1/341.4/422.9/583.6billionCNYandCAGRwillbe26%.Underpessimisticforecasting,webelieve2018-21theCAPEXoftelecomoperatorswillbe291.1/331.2/394.3/516.3billionCNYandCAGRwillbe21%.Underoptimisticforecasting,webelieve2018-21theCAPEXoftelecomoperatorswillbe291.1/351.7/453.6/660.3billionCNYandCAGRwillbe31%.Recommendations:1)YOFC(6869.HK)isintheleadingpositioninopticalfiberindustry.Weexpect5Ginvestmentwillbringconsiderabledemandofopticalfibersstagebystage.WeestimateYOFC’srevenueduring2020-22growsby53%comparedto2016-18.ReiteratingBuy.2)ChinaTower(0788.HK)benefitsfromthefollowingcellsitesconstruction.WeestimatethenumberofChinaTower’scellsiteswillincreaseby5.7millionsitesinthe5Geraandbytheyearof2017thenumberis1.9millionsites.Accordingly,thecompany’srevenueisexpectedtogrowrapidly.3)ZTE(0763.HK)isworldlyleadingcommunicationequipmentprovider.Weestimatethecompany’stelecomequipmentaverageannualrevenuein5Gmassconstructionperiodwillgrow113%thanin2017.4)Comba(2342.HK)isthesecondlargestbasestationantennaproviderandapioneerinsmallcellsitesconstruction.Weestimatethecompany’saverageannualrevenueofantennafeederbusinessduring5Gmassconstructionperiodwillbe167%largerthanin2017,andaverageannualrevenueofsmallcellsitesbusinesswillbe296%largerthanin2017.Potentialrisks:1)Economicfluctuationsmaydenttheindustry’sprosperity;2)Unexpectedunfavorableindustrypolicies;3)Naturaldisastersorpoliticalevents;4)Fiercer-than-expectedmarketcompetition.5GOverseaIndustrialTopic1:5GRadioFrequencyDivisionisDetermined,CAPEXCAGRofTelecomOperatorsMayExceed20%inNext3Years.10/12/2018请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-海外行业深度研究报告目录一、5G：大通信容量及超低延时，未来多项应用的基础....................................-4-1.1、5G：高工作频率以及频谱带宽带来高通信容量.......................................-4-1.2、多项技术革新进一步提升通信性能...........................................................-4-1.3、大数据容量以及低延时是未来多种应用的基础........................................-5-二、流量需求暴增，进入4G扩容，5G初期建设阶段........................................-6-三、政策导向决定建设节奏....................................................................................-7-工信部....................................................................................................................-7-发改委....................................................................................................................-8-地方政府................................................................................................................-8-运营商..................................................................................................................-10-设备商..................................................................................................................-12-四、重要投资节点..................................................................................................-13-4.1、5G频谱划分正式确定，网络规划开始，初期建设开始........................-13-4.2、设备集采开始，产业链订单正式落地，5G建设正式铺开....................-14-4.3、核心城市网络大规