电信服务行业评估5G投资影响为电信运营商带来进一步利好但不会彻底改写格局买入中移动摘要2

2019年是中国实际铺开5G投资的第一年。我们在本报告中提供了评估中国运营商5G市场规模的框架，包括三大5G潜在应用场景：增强移动宽带（eMBB，例如智能手机提速）、海量机器类通信（mMTC，例如物联网）和超高可靠低时延通信（uRLLC，例如网联汽车）的发展路线，增长潜力以及重要指标分析。5G为电信运营商带来进一步利好但不会彻底改写格局；买入中移动在中国的5G生态系统下，我们认为运营商的角色是创新促成者而非利益获取者，例如，运营商将负责建立最优的5G网络，以推动创新创造并普及最新技术/应用。因此，我们认为运营商不会给5G服务以更高的定价并实现更高利润率。在计入eMBB、mMTC和uRLLC等新收入来源并计入相应的网络运营成本、铁塔租赁费、销售/营销费用以及折旧后，我们预计5G将在2019-23年进一步推动运营商收入增长3%-5%，盈利增长3%-7%。在运营商中，我们预计中移动将捕捉大部分收入增长机会，有望在eMBB/mMTC/uRLLC取得60%/70%/80%市场份额。虽然中国电信股的估值倍数或将随着市场对5G相关消息的看法而发生波动，但这可能缘于市场情绪的影响，而不是反映出中长期盈利的基本面前景。相应地，我们将对运营商的估值法从市净率调整为贴现现金流估值法，以更好地体现5G全周期的影响。电信供应商可能因5G周期得到更大提振；买入中国铁塔随着运营商在今年开始5G预商用，我们认为供应商将率先受益，包括铁塔基础设施的提供者（中国铁塔），基站供应商（中兴通讯）以及部件供应商（光迅科技和旭创科技）等。在这些供应商中，我们最看好中国铁塔，参见报告“中国铁塔(0788.HK):站在中国5G大潮的最前沿；买入评级”。我们的另一篇报告“5G:Movingfromthelabtothelaunchpad”分析了全球5G受益企业。*全文翻译随后提供侯雪婷(分析师)执业证书编号:S1420515060001+86(21)2401-8694|[e-mail]北京高华证券有限责任公司中国电信服务评估5G投资影响：为电信运营商带来进一步利好但不会彻底改写格局；买入中移动(摘要)2019年2月14日|6:40PMCST证券研究报告北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。WhereisChinaon5Gnow?5Sizingup5Gfortelcos10DCFtocapturefull5Gcycleimpact205Gsupplychaintoseebiggerboost24Financials27Appendix35信息披露附录382019年2月14日2全球投资研究中国电信服务目录*foruRLLC,weonlyforecastTAMforconnectedvehicles,asthemonetizationmodelsforautonomousdrivingandfactoryautomationarestillintheirinfancy.资料来源：GaoHuaSecuritiesResearch2019年2月14日3全球投资研究中国电信服务IndustryleaderChinaMobilebestpositionedfor5G;reiterateBuyAswereflectthefinancialimpactsof5Gintoourforecasts,wemakethefollowingchangestoourestimatesandtargetprices:ChinaMobile(Buy):Weexpect5GtoraiseChinaMobile’s2019E-2023Erevenuenby3%-7%andnetincomeby3%-8%.OurDCF-based12-monthtargetpriceofHK$100implies21%upside.ChinaTelecom(Neutral):Weexpect5GtoraiseChinaTelecom’s2019E-2023Enrevenueby3%-4%andnetincomeby3%-5%.OurDCF-based12-monthtargetpriceofHK$4.1implies4%downside.ChinaUnicom(Neutral):Weexpect5GtoraiseChinaTelecom’s2019E-2023Enrevenueby3%-6%andnetincomeby3%-4%.OurDCF-based12-monthtargetpriceofHK$9.8implies9%upside.图表1:GoldmanSachsGlobalTelecomvaluationcompLastTarget+/-TotalMktCapND/EQND/EBITDAROEROICCROCIEV/GCICompanyRatingPricePriceSideReturn(US$mn)SalesEBITDANI2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E2019E2019E2019E2019E2019EChinaMobileBuy82.50100.0021%26%215,2254.0%6.0%5.7%3.2x2.8x4.4%5.0%1.3x1.2x-0.4x-1.6x11.8%26.2%12.5%0.5xChinaTelecomNeutral4.274.10-4%-1%44,0305.4%2.2%8.2%3.2x2.9x2.9%3.5%0.8x0.8x0.1x0.4x6.3%7.2%8.4%0.3xChinaUnicomNeutral9.029.809%11%35,1656.4%7.1%182.6%1.1x0.8x2.1%2.8%1.1x1.1x-0.1x-0.2x6.2%5.1%5.6%0.1xChinaUnicomNetworkCommNeutral5.446.0010%13%17,0106.4%7.1%182.6%2.4x2.0x2.4%3.2%0.8x0.7x-0.1x-0.2x4.7%5.1%6.9%0.2xTelstraBuy*3.233.6011%17%27,826-2.5%-7.8%-16.2%5.8x5.8x5.3%5.3%2.5x2.4x1.0x1.7x18.7%11.0%9.1%0.6xamaysimAustraliaLtd.Neutral0.961.1317%17%14312.5%5.6%5.0%4.8x4.2x0.0%3.6%2.6x2.3x0.5x0.7x35.9%21.2%13.2%0.2xTPGTelecomNeutral7.287.20-1%0%4,6683.5%-3.1%-16.9%10.4x10.7x0.6%0.7%2.2x2.0x0.5x1.8x10.0%7.2%10.0%1.2xVocusGroupLtd.Neutral3.573.00-16%-16%1,6132.9%2.0%-8.0%8.5x7.5x0.0%0.0%0.9x0.9x0.4x2.9x4.9%4.0%7.0%0.7xTNZ/SparkNewZealandSell4.063.65-10%-4%5,0590.7%5.7%6.8%8.0x7.9x6.1%6.1%5.1x5.2x0.9x1.2x28.0%17.1%9.7%0.9xIndosatNeutral3,2602,300-29%-29%1,259-12.2%-18.0%NA4.7x4.0x0.0%0.2%1.6x1.5x1.9x2.6x-6.7%1.8%7.0%0.3xXLAxiataNeutral2,0702,40016%16%1,2560.3%3.6%-2.5%4.3x3.8x0.0%0.0%1.0x1.0x0.7x1.8x0.8%2.9%8.0%0.3xTelkomBuy3,8204,70023%28%26,6586.9%3.1%1.9%7.6x6.9x4.6%5.3%3.6x3.3x0.2x0.4x23.0%26.1%18.4%1.2xLinkNetNeutral4,3504,5505%9%9418.9%7.8%8.4%4.9x4.5x4.6%4.9%2.3x2.1x-0.2x-0.6x21.8%29.1%24.6%1.4xSMNNeutral805700-13%-9%2,9197.7%7.5%12.0%8.8x8.4x3.9%4.0%3.9x3.5x0.6x1.1x26.6%21.3%23.3%2.3xKDDIBuy2,6713,30024%28%58,1331.8%1.4%2.2%4.8x4.7x4.4%4.8%1.5x1.4x0.2x0.5x14.7%13.9%11.5%0.7xNTTNeutral4,6005,50020%24%82,9611.0%1.2%-2.5%4.8x4.8x4.0%4.3%0.9x0.9x0.3x1.1x8.9%8.6%6.2%0.4xDoCoMoNeutral2,5632,8009%14%83,3270.4%-1.1%-5.0%5.4x5.4x4.4%4.6%1.4x1.4x-0.1x-0.2x11.9%14.5%9.3%0.7xSoftbankCorpNeutral1,2911,60024%29%55,9193.5%3.1%2.1%7.2x7.0x5.4%6.2%5.2x5.0x2.3x2.2x39.7%24.5%14.5%1.3xAxiataNeutral3.943.60-9%-6%8,5762.7%4.4%2.8%6.7x6.2x2.2%3.2%1.7x1.7x0.6x1.7x4.4%6.4%8.8%0.6xMaxisSell5.704.70-18%-14%10,494-0.6%-3.0%-3.5%13.0x13.1x3.1%3.1%5.6x5.2x0.9x1.8x24.6%14.6%9.5%1.5xTMNeutral2.892.40-17%-17%2,663-3.6%-15.8%NA8.5x7.3x0.0%0.0%1.4x1.5x1.0x3.5x-2.9%-1.3%3.4%0.3xM1Neutral2.051.85-10%-5%1,402-1.7%-3.1%-14.8%8.5x8.6x4.5%3.8%4.3x4.3x1.3x2.0x24.3%10.7%7.9%0.7xSingTelBuy3.033.5016%21%35,5841.3%-4.1%-13.1%7.1x7.1x5.8%6.2%1.7x1.7x0.3x2.2x9.6%6.0%6.5%0.7xStarHubBuy1.902.7042%51%2,388-2.4%1.2%0.1%7.0x6.6x8.4%8.4%14.2x15.9x4.0x1.5x91.3%21.2%10.4%0.8xAISNeutral1811852%6%17,1724.1%3.6%0.5%8.1x8.4x3.9%4.0%8.1x7.2x1.2x1.1x48.3%19.4%21.8%2.0xDTACSell47.5033.00-31%-29%3,589-1.1%-2.9%259.6%5.4x5.2x1.5%1.2%3.3x2.9x0.8x1.1x19.5%7.6%7.9%0.4xIntouchNeutral54.2553.00-2%3%5,550-10.5%-7.5%-13.5%2.6x0.9x4.9%4.7%5.1x4.8x-0.1x-2.2x30.0%-1.4%3.3%2.3xTrueNeutral5.156.4024%24%5,484-2.4%-9.5%-76.8%6.5x7.2x0.0%0.0%1.2x1.2x0.6x2.1x-0.2%0.3%9.7%0.6xVerizonComm