请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明[Table_Title]2019中报总结:4G扩容及5G带动无线相关业绩提振,非经常收益拉动行业ROE回稳[Table_Title2]通信行业[Table_Summary]报告摘要:1.5G建设周期启动初期,内生性增长乏力,非经常收益拉动ROE企稳:收入增速持续放缓,存量竞争激烈毛利未见改善;应收账款持续扩张,经营性现金流萎缩,收入质量有待提升。2.销售规模扩大,研发持续增强,5G拉动费用提升,期待相关投入加速变现3.分板块情况:1)电信运营商:存量博弈加剧,5G投资承压,行业拐点仍未明确2)主设备商:4G扩容带动无线主设备商收入增长,FTTH及传输光设备投资放缓相关厂商承压显著,运营商产业链条主设备商ROE持续下滑3)光器件及光纤光缆:光纤需求不景气毛利率、存货周转率持续下滑;光器件器去库存周期,数据中心光模块上游景气度高4)基站天线及射频器件:4G扩容及5G前期备货影响射频器件受益较早,收入增长拉动ROE水平提升;预付账款增速与收入增速错周期规律预示无线射频行业还未到景气周期5)物联网:收入持续稳健增长,国内竞争仍然激烈,海外市场成为稳毛利关键6)IDC:行业收入增速回落进入淘汰阶段,关注在建工程增速快的龙头公司4.风险提示5G运营商资本开支、建设进展不及预期;5G相关技术方案带来竞争格局新变化;受宏观经济因素影响互联网公司开支不及预期。评级及分析师信息[Table_IndustryRank]行业评级:推荐[Table_Pic]行业走势图[Table_Author]分析师:宋辉邮箱:songhui@hx168.com.cnSACNO:S1120519080003联系人:柳珏廷邮箱:liujt@hx168.com.cn联系电话:010-51662928-6%3%12%21%30%39%2019/012019/042019/07通信沪深300证券研究报告|行业投资策略报告仅供机构投资者使用[Table_Date]2019年09月09日证券研究报告|行业投资策略报告请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明219626187/21/2019022816:59正文目录1.5G建设周期启动初期,内生性增长乏力,非经常收益拉动ROE企稳......................................41.1.收入增速持续放缓,存量竞争激烈毛利未见改善....................................................41.2.应收账款持续扩张,经营性现金流萎缩,收入质量有待提升...........................................62.费用端:销售规模扩大,研发持续增强,5G拉动费用提升..............................................72.1.销售费用:4G后周期整体趋缓,2019受5G建设影响开始提升........................................82.2.管理费用:持续走高,平均管理费用率创十年内历史新高.............................................82.3.财务费用:经营性现净金流萎缩,经济下行及融资外部环境压力使得平均财务费用率居高不下.............82.4.研发支出:5G伊始,研发投入持续增长,重点关注现金流充裕持续研发的优质企业......................93.分版块情况:....................................................................................93.1.电信运营商:存量博弈加剧,5G投资承压,行业拐点仍未明确.......................................103.2.主设备商:4G扩容带动无线主设备商收入增长,FTTH及传输光设备投资放缓相关厂商承压显著,运营商产业链条主设备商ROE持续下滑.............................................................................123.3.光器件及光纤光缆:光纤需求不景气毛利率、存货周转率持续下滑;光器件器去库存周期,数据中心光模块上游景气度高.........................................................................................123.4.基站天线及射频器件:4G扩容及5G前期备货影响射频器件受益较早,收入增长拉动ROE水平提升;预付账款增速与收入增速错周期规律预示无线射频行业还未到景气周期.............................................143.5.物联网:收入持续稳健增长,国内竞争仍然激烈,海外市场成为稳毛利关键............................153.6.IDC:行业收入增速回落进入淘汰阶段,关注在建工程增速快的龙头公司...............................164.风险提示.......................................................................................16图表目录图1CS通信指标营收总和及增速情况(亿元)..................................................................................................................4图2CS通信指标扣非净利润总和及增速情况(亿元)......................................................................................................4图3CS通信总营收分季度环比指标(亿元)......................................................................................................................5图4CS通信剔除值总营收分季度环比指标(亿元)..........................................................................................................5图5CS通信上市公司营收增速及净利润增速分布情况(家)..............................................................................................5图6CS通信销售毛利率及净利率-算术平均........................................................................................................................6图7CS通信摊薄ROE-算术平均(调整值).........................................................................................................................6图8CS通信应收账款周转率及应收账款占收比..................................................................................................................6图9CS通信应收账款占总资产情况......................................................................................................................................6图10CS通信存货及存货周转率情况....................................................................................................................................7图11CS通信净营业周期及资本开支/折旧摊销情况..........................................................................................................7图12CS通信现金收入比-算术平均......................................................................................................................................7图13CS通信经营性净现金额情况(亿元)........................................................................................................................7图14CS通信三费率-算术平均.............................................................................................................................................8图15CS通信三费率-整体法.................................................................................................................................................8图16CS通信上市公司营收增速及净利润增速分布情况(家)............................................................................................9图17通信细分行业ROE情况(%).......................................................................................................................................10图18移动电话去话通话时长持续下跌,未见收敛(%).................................................................................................11图19三大电信运营商折旧摊销情况(亿元).....................................................................................................................11图204G渗透率50%是ARPU上升拐点(元;%)............