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TheMotherOfAllTechBattlesAUTOTECHImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisreportGPBullhoundLLPisauthorisedandregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthorityGPBullhoundIncisamemberofFINRASubscribetoreceiveGPBullhoundResearchandNewson:ATIMEOFUNPRECEDENTEDCHANGE09CHAPTER2:THEGROWINGINFLUENCEANDPOWEROFTECHPLAYERS17EXPERTVIEWChristianHerrmann,Daimler15CHAPTER3:AUTOTECHINVESTMENTSGROWINGFROMSTRENGTHTOSTRENGTH27CHAPTER4:FOURKEYTRENDSINAUTOTECH30EXPERTVIEWAlainTiquet,Nvidia36EXPERTVIEWMartinAnderlind,Northvolt43EXPERTVIEWStanBoland,FiveAI49EXPERTVIEWMagnusOlsson,Careem56EXPERTVIEWDieterMay,BMW58CHAPTER5:FutureBattlefronts61EXPERTVIEWDarrenJobling,Zerolight63EXPERTVIEWTimoBuetefisch,Cooltra65EXPERTVIEWLewisHorne,Uniti58CHAPTER6:JOCKEYINGFORPOSITION71METHODOLOGYCONTENTS5AUTOTECHSvenRaeymaekersPartnerGuillaumeBonnetonPartnerEXECUTIVESUMMARYFromthemomentthatKarlBenzbuiltthefirstpetrol-poweredinternalcombustionengineautomobileinMannheimin1885,carculturehasrelentlesslyspreadacrosstheglobe.Itsimpacthasbeennothinglessthanextraordinary:DasAutohastransformedglobaleconomies,shapedentiresocietiesandtestedthelimitsofengineeringtimeandtimeagain.Itisunquestionablyoneofthemostimportantinventionsinhistory.Asitstandstoday,iftheindustrywereaneconomy,itwouldbeamongthetenlargestonearth.Morethan100yearsafterthepetrol-poweredcarpassedgoforthefirsttime-anddespiteworldwidesalesatarecordhighin2018-stressfracturesarestartingtoappear.TeslaisontracktooutsellbothBMWandMercedes-BenzintheUS,carsalesinChinaaredecliningforthefirsttimeindecades,andseveralglobalautomakershaveissuedprofitwarningsinrecentmonths.Indeed,themulti-trillion-dollarindustryisfacingunprecedentedchangeacrossanumberoffronts,including:»Social:urbanisationandchangingtrendsincarownership»Political:regulationandpollutionlevels»Technological:autonomousdriving,electrificationandconnectivityOverthenext10-15years,fourtrendsaresettoconvergeandpotentiallychangetheindustryforever.Theyare:Electrification,autonomousdriving,sharedmobility,andconnectedexperiences.Carmakersare,consequently,confrontedwithamyriadofchallenges,particularlyinrelationtodesignandmanufacturing,alongsidechangestothebusinessmodelandcustomerrelationships.Inthisnewworld,profitsareexpectedtoberedirectedtoareaswherecarmakerslackpriorknowledgeandexperience,whileinvestmentneedstoberoutedtowardstechnologythatinmanycasesremainsuntested.Asaresult,wewillundoubtedlyseetheemergenceofnewandpowerfulplayersinthemobilityecosystem.It’scommontocomparethetrialsandtribulationsofautomotivewiththoseofthemobiledeviceindustry,wherevaluehasshiftedfromhardwaretosoftwareandecosystemsand,ultimately,hasledtothedemiseofseveralglobalgiants.Inthisfast-movingworld,onethingisforsure:autoindustryleadershavenodesiretoseehistoryrepeatitself.THEVIEWFromGPBullhound4ATIMEOFUnprecedentedChange7AUTOTECHCHAPTER16MACRO-ENVIRONMENTALFACTORSAreImpactingTheAutomotiveIndustrySources:GPBullhoundanalysis,BCGanalysis,1.Insee,2015Impactedbyanumberofmacro-environmentalfactors,themulti-trillion-dollarautoindustryisfacingunprecedentedchange,withanumberofsocial,politicalandtechnologicaldriversshiftingandalteringhowbusinesseswillperformforyearstocome.SocialWithpeoplecontinuingtovaluetheconceptofsustainablelivingandembracingapay-per-useandsharingeconomy,carownershipcontinuestofallincitiesaroundtheworld,despitetheworld’surbanpopulationgrowingfrom52%in2010to55%today.Addingintimelostinseeminglyendlesstrafficjams,ever-increasingparkingcosts,andtheavailabilityofvariousalternativemodesoftransport,includingbikes,scootersandmopeds,it’sperhapsnotsurprisingtoseeonly36%ofParisianhouseholdsowningacarin2015,comparedto80%acrossFranceasawhole.PoliticalIncreasinglyconcernedwiththewellbeingandprotectionofvehicleoccupantsandvulnerableroadusers,andequallyapplyingtonewstandardsinvehiclesafetyequipmentaswellastheoperationofnewmobilityservices,centralandlocalauthoritiesarecallingformorestringentregulationtoincreaseroadsafety.Atthesametime,pressuretolimittheenvironmentalimpactofroadtransportismounting,asillustratedbytheintroductionofemissiontargets,ICEbans,andsubsidiesforelectrifiedvehicles.Asvehiclesprogressivelyturnintodatacentresonwheels,morerigidrulesarebeingcalledforaroundprivacydataprotection.TechnologicalOverthepastfewyears,we’veexperiencedtremendousprogressintermsofenablingtechnologies,providingafoundationfortheadventofconnected,autonomous,shared,andelectricdrivingplatforms.Thesetechnologiesincludeadvancesinartificialintelligence,computervision,andsheercomputationalpower,aswellasconnectivity(bandwidthissettoincreasehugelyfollowingtheroll-outof5G),fastevolvingenergystorageefficiency,andmaterialmanagement(suchas3Dprintingforinstance).1617181920-2425-2930-3440-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970100%50%0%Licenseddrivers35-39Age19832014MillennialsvsparentsProportionofagegroupsowningadriverslicense(USA)-19%35-3920-249AUTOTECH8CHAPTER1WHATARETHEKEYTechDisruptionsDISRUPTIONHASCOMELATEButWillHaveLastingEffect