房地产行业房产税渐行渐近行业步入新周期2018

本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给国投瑞银国投瑞银基金管理有限公司([e-mail])使用。26September2018IndustryResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage1Policymakersarerefininganinitialdraftofapersonalpropertytaxregulation,accordingtodomesticmediareportsinearlyAugust.Weexpectdevelopmentsaroundtheintroductionofsuchataxbeforeyearend,which,whilecrucialtolong-termmarketstability,willlikelyamplifytheimpactofcurrentpropertytighteningpolicies,startedlate2016bydeceleratinghomesalesandplacingdownsidepressureonbothlandandhomeprices.WethusremainUnderweightthesector.Personalpropertytaxpilot.AlthoughChinahasleviedpropertytaxesonbusinessessince1986,itonlylaunchedapilotpropertytaxprogrammeonpersonalpropertiesinJanuary2011,withthetrialbeinglimitedtoShanghaiandChongqing.Furthermore,thetaxratewassetatarelativelylowlevelandpolicymakersincludedawiderangeoftaxconcessions,whilebasingthelevyonhistoricalpurchasepriceofapropertyratherthantheappraisedmarketprice.Assuch,wehaveseenverylimitedimpactfromthepropertytaxonhometransactionsandpricesthereafterinboththetwopilotcities,ineithernewhomeorsecondhandmarket.Inthesixyearssincethelaunchofthepilot,therewasalmostnorealprogressonpropertytax,and,intheworkreporttotheannualmeetingofthecountry’slegislatureinMarch,propertytaxlegislationwasnotincludedamongthegovernment’stasksfor2018,causingthemarkettoassumethepersonalpropertytaxsystemwouldremainconfinedtothetwopilotcities.Realprogresslikelyin2018.Givenlimitedtoolsleftforfurtherreininginhomeprices,weexpectpolicymakerstoremainprudentindraftingthenewregulations,withthemostcontentiousissuelikelytobetheappropriaterateoftax(cfarateof0.28-2.35%intheUS);toolowaratemayactuallyboostsentimentandresultinafurthersurgeinhomeprices,whiletoopunitivemayresultinafloodofsellingonthesecondhandmarket.Evenso,wearereasonablyconfidentthatpolicymakerswillsubmitexplicitamendmentsforreview,consistentwithongoingreformsofChina’sindividualincometaxlaw.Wedonotseeparticulartechnicalobstaclestoapropertytaxbasedonmarketappraisalvaluesforallexistinghomes,andviewanallowanceof40-60sqmperpersonasreasonablewithataxrateofnomorethanc.1.0%asaffordable.Taxtocontributefifthoflandsalesincome.China'stotalpopulationreached1.39bnatend-2017,ofwhichc.813mpeopleliveinurbanareaswithalivingareapercapitaatc.36sqm.However,thenumberofofficiallyresidentcitydwellers,underthe“hukou”householdregistrationsystem,islessthan600m,ofwhichlessthanc.80%ownproperty.Onthisbasis,wecalculatethattheresidentialspaceownedbyofficiallyregisteredurbanresidentsisclosertoc.65sqmnationwide(c.72sqminShanghai),whichcompareswiththepercapitaallowanceundertheShanghaipilotpropertytaxschemeof60sqm.Assuminganallowanceof40sqmpercapita,andataxrateof1.0%,thecountrystandstogeneratetaxrevenueofRmb900bnannually,representing17%ofthecountry’slandsalesin2017.Taxburdencalculation.Nationwide,wecalculatethatapropertytax,basedonourbase-caseassumptionswouldaccountforc.8%ofahousehold’sannualdisposableincome(cf:1.2-10.3%indifferentUSstates),orjust1.6%assumingpolicymakersseta60sqmperpersonallowance.InShanghai,however,itwouldlifttheannualtaxburdentoc.20%ofhouseholddisposableincomeinourbase-casescenario(c.8%inourbull-casescenarioofa60sqmallowance).Thus,weseeahighlikelihoodthatpropertytaxrateswilllikelybesetonaregionalbasisalthoughpropertytaxesincitieswithhigherhomepriceswillstilllikelyplacealargertaxburdenonbuyers.Assuch,weexpecthouseholdswithheavyexposuretorealestateassetsmaylooktosellsomeoftheirpropertiestoreducetheirpotentialtaxburden.本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给国投瑞银国投瑞银基金管理有限公司([e-mail])使用。36September2018IndustryResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage2PersonalpropertytaxpilotinChinaThePolitBuromeetingheldintheendofthisJulyunderscoredthegovernment’sintentiontocurbhousingpricegrowth,raisingmarketexpectationsthatitwouldtakeconcretestepstowardstheintroductionofapersonalpropertytaxin2018.Inmid-July,thespokespersonfromtheNationalBureauofStatisticsstressedthatthegovernmentwaslookingtospeeduptheintroductionofpropertytax,whileinearlyAugust,mediareportedthatlegislatorshadcompletedaninitialdraftregulationandwererefiningbeforefinalsubmission.PersonalpropertytaxpilotinChina.AlthoughChinahasleviedpropertytaxesonbusinessessince1986,itonlylaunchedapilotpropertytaxprogrammeonpersonalpropertiesinJanuary2011,withthetrialbeinglimitedtoShanghaiandChongqing.Fig1:PropertytaximposedonfirmsinChinasince1986TypeTaxbaseFormulataxrateForself-useOriginalcostOriginalcost*(1-30%)*taxrate1.2%ForleasingRentalincomeAnnualRentalIncome*taxrate12%Source:SWSResearchFurthermore,thetaxratewassetatarelativelylowlevelandpolicymakersincludedawiderangeoftaxconcessions,whilebasingthelevyonhistoricalpurchasepriceofapropertyratherthantheappraisedmarketprice.Assuch,wehaveseenverylimitedimpactfromthepropertytaxonhometransactionsandpricesthereafterinboththetwopilotcities,ineithernewhomeorsecondhandmarket.Fig2:PropertytaxpilotonhouseholdsinShanghaiandChongqingsince2011PropertyTaxPilotShanghaiChongqingTaxbaseLocalresidentsNewly-boughtsecondandabovehomesLocalandnon-localresidentsAllvillas,includingnewly-boug