莱坊上海写字楼市场报告2019年Q1201955页

SHANGHAIOFFICEmArkEtrEpOrtQ12019上海写字楼市场报告2019年第一季度RESEARCH研究报告32RESEARCHSHAngHAiOFFiCEMARKETREPORTQ12019tAblE2MajorGrade-Aofficesub-marketindicators,Q12019SubmarketRent(RMB/sqm/day)Rent%change(QoQ)VacancyrateVacancyratepercentagepointchange(QoQ)LittleLujiazui12.7↓3.7%11.3%↑3.5NanjingWestRoad10.9↓0.9%3.5%↑0.5HuaihaiMiddleRoad9.9↓3.6%2.8%↑0.7Xujiahui7.2↓1.8%3.7%↑0.5TheCenturyAvenue9.2↓2.0%16.0%↓2.1Source:knightFrankresearchFIGUrE1Grade-AofficerentalandpriceindicesGiventhelimitedimpactofthenewVATpolicyontheGrade-Aofficemarketintheshortterm,theaverageofficerentcontinuedtodrop.Theweakeningleasingdemandhaswidenedtherentalnegotiationmargininfavourofhighqualitytenants,leadingtothesignificantdeclineinmarketrents.TheaveragerentinCoreCBDsdecreasedinQ1.InNanjingWestRoadtherentdecreased0.9%QoQtoRMB10.9persqmperday.TheaveragerentsinHuaihaiMiddleRoadandLittleLujiazuiareasdecreasedsignificantly3.6%and3.7%toRMB9.9andRMB12.7persqmperdayrespectivelycomparedwiththepreviousquarter.TheaveragerentinHuaihaiMiddleRoadcontinuedtodropaslandlordsofofficebuildingsalongsideHuaihaiMiddleRoadreducedrentsinordertoabsorbthevacantspacethatwaspreviouslyoccupiedbymajortenants.ThenewcompletionsoverthepastyearinLittleLujiazuisegregatedtheleasingdemandfromexistingofficebuildingsandtheyhadtoreducerentstoleaseoutthevacantspace,leadingtothedecreaseintheaveragerentinLittleLujiazuiinQ1.InQ1,theaveragerentsintheemergingandsecondarybusinessdistrictsdecreased3.9%and5.8%respectivelytoRMB7.3andRMB6.5persqmperday,comparedwiththepreviousquarter.Amongst,themarketintheRailwayStationAreawasoneofthefewestwhichperformedstableinQ1andtheaveragerentremainedatRMB6.8persqmperday.TheFinancialStreetMixed-useSchemewhichisnowunderconstructionisexpectedtoboostthedevelopmentoftheRailwayStationArea,andthelandlordsremainconfidentonthefutureprospectsofthisarea.rENtSANDprICESSource:knightFrankresearchSHANGHAIOFFICErENtSDECrEASEDAmIDSOFtENEDlEASINGDEmANDINQ12019Inthefirstquarter(Q1),thenewsupplyinShanghai'sGrade-Aofficemarketwasapproximately550,000sqm,anincreaseof53%comparedwiththepreviousquarter.Duetotheincreaseinsupplyandtheweakeningdemand,thenetabsorptionwasnegative.InQ1,theaverageGrade-Aofficerentdropped2.1%QoQtoRMB9.5persqmperday.Duetotheweakeningdemand,theaveragerentinCoreCBDsdecreasedtoRMB11.6persqmperday,aQoQdecreaseof1.7%.Newcompletionsledtohighervacancyratesinthequarter,withtheoverallvacancyrateofShanghai’sGrade-Aofficemarketreaching13.1%,up3.2percentagepointscomparedwiththepreviousquarter.Intheprimarystrata-titlesalesmarket,theaveragetransactionpriceofsellableofficesinShanghaiincreasedby2.9%QoQtoRMB74,510persqm.TheChinesegovernmenthasbeendevotedtoboostthedomesticeconomyandpromotethehealthydevelopmentofrealeconomy.TheValue-addedtax(VAT)rateonmanufacturingenterpriseswillbeloweredfrom16%to13%inApril.Moretechstart-upswillbenefitfromtherecentrelaxationofthestandardsfortheclassificationofsmallandmicrobusinessestopaylesstax.Thetaxpolicywilleffectivelyreducethetaxburdenforcorporatesandpromotethedevelopmentofenterprises.tAblE1ShanghaiGrade-AofficemarketindicatorsIndicatorQ12019figureQoQchangeOutlook(Q22019)Newsupply549,938sqm↑53%↗RentRMB9.5/sqm/day↓2.1%↘Vacancyrate13.1%↑3.2percentagepoints↗PriceRMB74,510/sqm↑2.9%↘Source:knightFrankresearchtAblE3MajorGrade-Aofficeleasingtransactions,Q12019DistrictBuildingZoneArea(sqm)XuhuiTheCentreMiddle6,000PudongQiantanTimesSquareLow14,000Source:knightFrankresearchNote:alltransactionsaresubjecttoconfirmationtAblE4MajorGrade-Aofficestrata-titlesalestransactions,Q12019DistrictBuildingFloor/unitArea(sqm)UnitPrice(RMB/sqm)XuhuiGreenlandCentre19thfloorunit35170,700PudongTagenRiversideCentre9thfloorunit7560,784Source:ShanghairealEstatetradingCentre/knightFrankresearchNote:alltransactionsaresubjecttoconfirmation050100150200250300350400Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q1Q3Q120072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192003Q1=100RentalindexPriceindexTheForeignInvestmentLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinawhichwasapprovedinQ1.Itaimstoprotectthelegitimaterightsandinterestsofforeigncompaniesandattractforeigninvestments.Apartfromtappingthevastbusinesspotentialofdomesticcompanies,Chinawillfurtheropenuptoforeigninvestments.Theintroductionoftheabovepolicieswillhavelong-termpositiveimpactsonmanufacturingandscientificresearchcompanies.Manufacturingenterprisesandtechstart-upswillbethekeyforcestodrivetheGrade-Aofficemarketinthefuture.Lookingforward,therewillbeapproximately2.3millionsqmofnewofficesupplyin2019,ofwhich60%islocatedintheemergingbusinessdistricts.Itcanbeexpectedthatofficerentswillcontinuetodropinthesecondquarter(Q2).Thedownwardtrendinrentalisinevitableduetotheweakeningdemandandthehugeamountofnewsupply.Thetrendofcompanieswithlimitedbudgetsmovingtoemergingbusinessdistrictswillalsocontinue.5研究报告上海写字楼市场报告2019年第一季度4InQ1,thenewsupplywasmainlyconcentratedinChangningofPuxiandQiantanofPudong,bringingapproximately430,000sqmofofficespacetothemarket,accountingfor78%ofthetotalnewsupply.DomesticrealestatedeveloperAnarGroup’sIMShanghaiandSOHOChina’sGube