德银新兴市场宏观经济新兴市场结构表现指数更新20170918DeutscheBankEMStruct

DeutscheBankResearchEmergingMarketsAsiaCEEMEALatinAmericaSpecialReportEconomicsDate18September2017EMStructuralPerformanceIndex:Anupdate________________________________________________________________________________________________________________DeutscheBankAG/LondonDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.GautamKalani,PhDStrategist(+44)[e-mail]nomist(+44)[e-mail]EM,andglobal,activityhasacceleratedoverthepastyear,promisinganexitfromthelowgrowthdoldrums.Concurrently,EMinflowshaveaccelerated.However,mostofthisup-tickingrowthandinflowshasbeenduetocyclicalfactors.Foramoresustained,long-termimprovementininflowandgrowthpotential,structuralreformsarerequired.Againstthisbackground,wehavepreparedourannualupdateonindicatorsofstructuralperformance.Lookingattheoverallscores,AsianstalwartsHongKong,Singapore,SouthKorea,andTaiwanarenearthetopofthetableofthestructuralperformancescorecard.Itisstrikinghowtheseeconomiesscorehighlyinalmostallcategories,underscoringthepointforeconomiesaspiringtoachievehighlevelsofprosperitythatcomprehensive,across-the-boardreformsareneededasopposedtopiecemealefforts.Attheotherendofthespectrum,Venezuela,Argentina,BrazilandUkraineremainthebottomrankedcountries.Theseeconomiesarecharacterizedbyverypoorqualityofinstitutions,weakfinancialandgoodsmarkets,andhighlevelofstateinterventionintheeconomy.Therehavebeensomestrikingchangestostructuralrankingsbetween2007and2016.StructuralprospectswithinCentralEuropehavediverged–Polandhasimprovedconsiderablyacrossalmostallstructuraldimensions,whileHungary’spositionhasdeterioratedduetodeclininginstitutionalqualityandfinancialmarketdevelopment.Elsewhere,Colombia,PhilippinesandPeruhaveseensignificantstructuralimprovement,whileKoreahasdeteriorated(butfromaveryhighstartingpoint),alongwithVenezuelaandArgentina(fromalowstartingpoint).WhilethereisconsiderableworryaboutChina’sdebtproblemsandthesustainabilityofitsrecentgrowthmomentum,wetakeheartfromitssteadyimprovementinstructuralstrength.Whilemuchmoreneedstobedone,therehasbeenencouragingimprovementinitseducation,infrastructure,financialmarkets,aswellasgoodsandlabormarkets.Someslippageineconomicopennessandstateintervention,however,isasourceofconcern.Intermsofregions,AsiaremainsthemostadvancedonstructuralqualityscoresandLatinAmericatheleastadvanced.EMEAisinthemiddleofthepackbutthereisdivergencewithinEMEA:CzechRepublic,Israel,andPolandrankmuchmorefavourablythanRussia,Turkey,RomaniaandSouthAfrica.Distributedon:18/09/201712:09:27GMT0bed7b6cf11c18September2017SpecialReport:EMStructuralPerformanceIndex:AnupdatePage2DeutscheBankAG/LondonEMStructuralPerformanceIndex:AnupdateIntroductionEM,andglobal,activityhasacceleratedoverthepastyear,promisinganexitfromthelowgrowthdoldrums.Concurrently,EMinflowshaveaccelerated.However,mostofthisup-tickingrowthandinflowshasbeenduetocyclicalfactors.Foramoresustained,long-termimprovementininflowandgrowthpotential,structuralreformsarerequired.Overthepastyear,andindeedoverthepastdecade,structuraldevelopmentinEMhasbeenlimited,bringingintoquestionthedurabilityoftherecentgrowthacceleration.Againstthisbackground,wehavepreparedourannualupdateonindicatorsofstructuralperformance.ActivityhasacceleratedinEM,andglobally,overthepastyearSource:DeutscheBank,MacrobondEmpiricalevidencefromlongtermstudiesofeconomicgrowthshowthatmostEMeconomieshavegrownonthebackofstrongaccumulationanddeploymentofcapital(bychannelinghighsavingsrates)andlabor(takingadvantageoffavorabledemographics),asopposedtoimprovementsintotalfactorproductivity(TFP).Thereisalsoclearcross-countryevidenceshowingthatstructuralreformsarecrucialforboostingproductivitygrowth.TopropelEMeconomiestoasustainablyhighergrowthtrajectory,productivity-boostingstructuralmeasuresarenecessary.ThefollowingchartshowsclearlythatimprovementinstructuralscorestendtobecloselyassociatedwithhigherrealGDPgrowth,highlightingtheimportanceofstructuralreforms.GDPgrowthvs.structuralperformance:apositiverelationshipARGBRZCHLCOLMEXPERVENCZEHUNISRPOLROMRUSZAFTURUKRCHNHKGINDIDNMALPHLSGPKORTWNTHA-20246810-0.3-0.2-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.6AveragerealGDPgrowthbetween2007-2016(%YoY)ChangeinStructuralIndexbetween2007-current(pts)Source:DeutscheBankAnalyticalframeworkWhilestructuralreformhasbecomeapopularcatch-alltermtoencapsulatealmosteverythingoutsidethespheresofmonetaryandfiscalpolicy,andhasbeenusedwidelyinthisbroadcontext,inourviewmoreworkneedstobedoneonsystematicallyanalyzingtheprogressofspecificstructuralfactorsandidentifyingthemostimportantreformprioritiesindifferentcountries.Withthisinmind,andwiththeadditionalaimofcreatingaconsistentframeworktocomparestructuralperformanceacrossabroadrangeofEMcountries,weconstructasyntheticindex–comprisingofvariousstructuralpillars–andusethistoobjectivelyassessstructuralperformanceacross26EMeconomiesbetween2007and2016.1Further,byanalyzingthecomponentsoftheindexwearealsoabletopinpointthemostlikelypressurepointswithinEM.Whiletheprecisechoiceofindicat