汇丰银行新兴市场资产流动GEMsfundsflowsStableinflowstoEMfundswh

Disclaimer&DisclosuresDisclaimer&DisclosuresThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.MiFIDII–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?CONTACTustodayWatchoutforfluidgeopoliticalrisksWemaintainaconstructiveviewtowardsEMandseespikesinvolatilityasanopportunitytoadd,aslongasthecurrenttensegeopoliticalenvironmentdissipates.WestillseestabletoimprovingEMfundamentals(growth,inflationandexternalbalances)andneutraltodovishmonetarypolicyoutlook,alongwithlowUST10-yearyield,softUSDandgradualFedandECBprovidingapositivebackdropforEMahead.RelativelargerinflowstoEMfundsvsDMforthethirdstraightweek,in%AUM,intheweekended9August.WithinEMbondfunds,Thailand,Mexico,India,andBrazilobtainedmostoftheinflowsinUSD,whileIndia,ThailandandFrontiermarketsgrabbedthelargestinflowsin%ofAUM.AmongEMequityfunds,China,Taiwan,S.Korea,andIndiagrabbedthemost,inUSD,whileFrontiermarkets,TaiwanandColombiasawthelargestinflowsinAUM.Inflowstonon-ETFandinstitutionalfundscontinuedliftingEMbonds,mainlyLCD,whileETFandinstitutionalfundsunderpinnedequityfunds(p.13).InDM,US,EuropeanandGlobalfundsaddedthemostwithinbondfundsbutHYreversedlastweek’sinflows.Global,JapanandEuropeanfundsledinflowstoDMequityfundswhileUSequitiesfundssawoutflowsfortheeighthconsecutiveweek.Leavingasidegeopoliticalrisks,HSBC’searlysignallingsystemstillsuggestsconstructivedemandforEMassets(p.14).Similarly,EMfundflowsmomentum(p.5)anddispersionindicators(p.8)pointstosupportiveriskappetite.Meanwhile,dailyfinancialaccountportfolioflowsshowlargeinflowstobonds(sevencountries),mainlyIndia,Thailand,andS.Korea,butoutflowsfromequities(eightcountries),mostlyS.Korea(p.15).Ontotalreturnresults,EXDadded0.2%w/w(7.6%y-t-d),onVenezuelaandEMCorpgained0.1%w/w(6.8%y-t-d),duetoHY(0.3%w/w;7.2%y-t-d).Meanwhile,LCDdropped0.5%w/w(12.3%y-t-d),duetoEMFX(0.6%w/w;5.5%y-t-d),mainlyHUF,PLNandZAR.EMequitiesloss0.1%w/w(24%y-t-d)aslossesfromS.Korea,ColombiaandIndiacloudedgainsfromChina,TurkeyandPeru.Lastweek’sequityflowsSource:EPFRGlobal,HSBCLastweek’sbondflowsSource:EPFRGlobal,HSBCBertrandDelgadoDirector,SeniorEMStrategistHSBCSecurities(USA)[e-mail][phone]KishoreMuktinutalapati*EquityStrategistHSBCSecurities&[e-mail][phone]JohnLomax*[e-mail][phone]Issuerofreport:HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.Published:11August2017*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:●GLOBALEMERGINGMARKETS11August20172BondfundflowsInflowstoEMbondfundscontinuedforthe28thconsecutiveweek,ledbyLCDandGEMandEMAsiaregionalfunds(charts25and26).Y-T-DnetinflowstobondfundsamounttoUSD50.9bn,ledbyEXD(USD30.1bn)fromthecurrencytypeandGEMfundsfromtheregionalside(USD47.1bn).Non-ETFfundshaveaddedUSD33.7bnandETFUSD14.9bny-t-d.StronginflowstoEMcorporatebondfundsforthefourthconsecutiveweek,ledbycrossoverandIGaswellasEXDandLCDfunds(charts27&28).InvestmentsinEMcorporatebondfundsamounttoUSD2bny-t-d.AccordingtoJapan’sMinistryofFinance,Institutionalinvestorsremainednetbuyersofforeignbondsforthefifthconsecutiveweek,purchasingUSD14.7bnworthforeignbondsintheweekending5August2017.Duringtheweekended9August,Uridashibond(retailbondinJapan)issuancesweretriggeredbyissuancesinTRY(USD135.7mn),ZAR(USD24.6mn)andBRL(USD22.7mn).YTD,MXNwasthefavouritecurrencyintheEMspacewithtotalissuanceofUSD989mn.MXNisfollowedbyTRYandINR.EquityfundflowsEMequityfundssawanotherweekofinflows(duringtheweekending9August).Thismarksthe21ststraightweekofinflowsintotheassetclass(chart76).RoughlyUSD44bnhasflowedintoEMequityfundssofarthisyearbutthisisstillonlyaboutathirdoftheoutflowsfromEMequityfundsinthepreviousfouryearperiod(chart62).BothactiveandpassiveEMequityfundscontinuetoreceiveinflows(chart65),withbothretailandinstitutionalfundsaddingfreshmoney(chart66).EUR,JPYandUSDdenominatedEMequityfundssawinflows,whilethosedenominatedinGBPsawminoroutflows(chart72).Amongsttheregionalfundgroups,GEMfunds(thosewithbroadmandatetoinvestacrossEMs)sawstronginflows.AsiaexJapanfundsalsosawinflowswhileEMEAandLatAmfundsregisteredoutflows(chart63).BycountryTaiwan,Qatar,Colombia,China,thePhilippines,India,SouthAfricaandSouthKoreasawinflowswhileEgypt,Chile,Peru,Mexico,Poland,Russia,Greece,Brazil,Turkey,Indonesia,UAEandMalaysiasawoutflows(chart61).Koreanequityfundscontinuedtopostinflows,albeitataweakerpaceoverthepastweek,despitetheriseingeo-politicaltensionsintheregion,asdomesticinstitutionalinvestorspumpedmoney.Ontheotherhand,Brazilianequityfunds,postedoutflowsforthesixthconsecutiveweek,despitepositivenewsofPresidentMichelTemer'ss