汇丰银行新兴市场资本市场因资本流动地缘政治关注下的混合流动与绩效20170908HSBCGEMsfu

Disclaimer&DisclosuresDisclaimer&DisclosuresThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.MiFIDII–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?CONTACTustodayTotalreturnsreachnewhighsy-t-dCapitalflowsintoEMshouldcontinuegivensupportivegrowthinEM,steadytostrongcommodityprices,stabletosoftUSDandrelativelylowUSTyields.Infact,recentglobalgrowthindicators,likemanufacturingandservicePMIs,remainsolidinAugust,withstrongperformanceinEM,particularlyAsia.Moreover,gradualFEDandECBtaperingprocessesand,inthecaseoftheFed,limitedroomforaggressivefedfundstightening,shouldkeepcrossassetvolatilitysomewhatlow.Meanwhile,EMinflationremainslowbroadlyspeakingandEMCBmonetarypolicyoutlookremainsintheneutraltodovishcamp,bothsupportiveforLCD.Sure,strongperformancey-t-dmakesEMassetsvulnerabletoprofittaking,yetgivenHSBC’sconstructiveexpectationsonlocalandglobalconditionsforEM,westillseeaspikeinvolatilityasanopportunitytoaddEMrisk.Duringtheweekended6September,investmentstoEMcontinuedtoflowatafasterclipthantoDMforthethirdconsecutiveweek,inpercentageofAUM.AmongEMbondfunds,mostoftheinvestmentswenttoMexico,Thailand,BrazilandIndonesiainUSDandtoFrontiermarketsandSouthKoreainpercentageofAUM.WithinEMequityfunds,China,SouthKorea,BrazilandRussiacapturedthelargestdepositsinUSD,whereasFrontiermarkets,ColombiaandRussiagrabbedthemostinflowsinAUM.Largerinflowstonon-ETFandinstitutionalfundscontinuetosupportEMbondfunds,particularlyEXD,whilesolidgainsinETFandinstitutionalfundsboostedequityfunds(p.13).InDM,USfundsledthegainswithinbondfunds,withHYpostingsolidinflows.Meanwhile,inflowstoGlobalequityfundssupportedDMdespitewithdrawalsfromUSequities.HSBC’searlysignallingsystemcontinuestosuggestsoliddemandforEMrisk,particularlybonds(p.14).Likewise,EMfundflowsmomentum(p.5)anddispersionindicators(p.8)pointtosimilardynamics.Meanwhile,Dailyfinancialaccountportfolioflowsshowlargeinflowstobonds(sevencountries),mainlyThailand,SouthKorea,IndonesiaandIndia,butoutflowsfromequities(eightcountries),mostlyfromSouthAfrica,IndiaandIndonesia(p.15).Lastweek’sequityflowsSource:EPFRGlobal,HSBCLastweek’sbondflowsSource:EPFRGlobal,HSBCBertrandDelgadoDirector,SeniorGEMsMulti-AssetStrategistHSBCSecurities(USA)[e-mail][phone]KishoreMuktinutalapati*EquityStrategistHSBCSecurities&[e-mail][phone]JohnLomax*[e-mail][phone]Issuerofreport:HSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.Published:08September2017*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:●GLOBALEMERGINGMARKETS08September20172Ontotalreturnresults,LCDgained1.1%w/w(15.7%y-t-d),duetoEMFX(0.6%w/w;7.6%y-t-d),mainlyRUB,ZARandBRL.Also,EXDadded0.6%w/w(9.4%y-t-d),onUkraine,EgyptandVenezuela.EMCorpgrew0.5%w/w(8.1%y-t-d),mainlyonHY(0.6%w/w;8.7%y-t-d).EMequitiesdeclined0.4%w/w(25.6%y-t-d)aslossesinSouthKorea,EgyptandMexicoshadowedgainsinBrazil,ColombiaandPeru.BondfundflowsInvestmentsintoEMbondfundsacceleratedandcontinuedforthethirdstraightweek,drivenbyEXDandGEMsfunds(charts25and26).Y-t-dnetinflowstobondfundsamounttoUSD61.5bn,ledbyEXD(USD34.4bn)fromthecurrencytypeandGEMfundsfromtheregionalside(USD52.1bn).Non-ETFfundshaveaddedUSD38bnandETFUSD15.2bny-t-d.DepositsintoEMcorporatebondfundscontinueforthethirdconsecutiveweek,ledbycrossoverandEXDfunds(charts27and28).InflowstoEMcorporatebondfundsamounttoUSD5.6bny-t-d.AccordingtotheMinistryofFinance,Japan,institutionalinvestorssoldUSD1.1bnworthofforeignbondsintheweekending2September2017.Duringtheweekended6September,Uridashibond(retailbondinJapan)issuanceswastriggeredbyissuancesinINR(USD30.1mn)andBRL(USD29.7mn).YTD,MXNwasthefavouritecurrencyintheEMspacewithtotalissuanceofUSD1bn.MXNisfollowedbyTRYandINR.EquityfundflowsIntheweekending6September,EMequityfundssawanotherweekofinflows(chart76).Passivefundssawinflowswhileactivefundssawnegligibleoutflows(chart65).Institutionalfundscontinuedtoseeinflowswhilethereweresignsthatinterestisreturningtoretailfunds(chart66).EMfundsdenominatedinEUR,JPYandUSDsawinflowwhilethosedenominatedinGBPsawminoroutflows(chart72).Byregion,inflowswereseenacrosstheboard–LatAm,EMEA,GEMandAsiaexJapanallsawinflows(chart63).ForEMEAequityfunds,lastweek’sinflow(of0.2%ofAuM)wasthefirstinaboutsixmonths(chart80).InEMEA,therewasastronginflowintoETFs(chart86)whiletheoutflowsfromnon-ETFscontinuedtoslow(chart92).Bycountry,thePhilippines,Colombia,Qatar,Russia,SouthKoreaandChinasawstronginflows(asapercentageofAuM)whileChile,Taiwan,ThailandandMexicosawsizableoutflows(chart61).Amongstsectors,inflows(inpercentageofAuMterms