2019年华南地区经济情况特别报告华南美国商会2019265页

TheAmericanChamberofCommerceinSouthChina2019SpecialReportontheStateofBusinessinSouthChina华南美国商会2019年华南地区经济情况特别报告Content目录56SpecialSupporter特别支持机构58economicConditionsinSouthChina华南地区经济概况64GuangdongProvince广东省82FujianProvince福建省92GuangxiZhuangAutonomousRegion广西壮族自治区104HainanProvince海南省114HongKongSpecialAdministrativeRegion香港特别行政区120MacaoSpecialAdministrativeRegion澳门特别行政区01•Preface02•StudyreSultS03•economicoverview序言调查结果经济概况16Demographics受访企业组成23RevenueandProfitability收入与利润29Reinvestmenttrends再投资趋势42Businessenvironment营商环境49US-ChinaBilateralRelations美中双边关系08President’sMessage会长致辞12Keytakeaways关键要点13SpecialSponsor特别赞助商©2019TheAmericanChamberofCommerceinSouthChina版权所有华南美国商会2019年“SouthChinaEconomicOverview”courtesyofEY.“华南地区经济概况”由安永授权刊登。Reproductionforcommercialuseisstrictlyprohibited.Thisdocumentisavailablefreeofchargeinelectronicformat:严禁复制以作商业用途。华南美国商会官方网站提供该出版物电子版免费下载。Lastupdated:Feb20,2019最后更新2019年2月20日TheAmericanChamberofCommerceinSouthChinaSuite1801,GuangzhouInternationalSourcingCenter8EastPazhouAvenue,HaizhuDistrictGuangzhou,Guangdong,PRC,510335华南美国商会中国广东省广州市海珠区琶洲大道东路8号广州国际采购中心1801室,510335Tel.[phone]Fax.(8620)[e-mail]•Preface序言98DearMembers,China’sextraordinaryprogresshasprovidedhistoricopportunitiesforworldpeaceandprosperity.DailytradebetweentheUSandChinaisnowvaluedatmorethanUS$1.5billionperday.Thetwocountriesaremoreconnectedthaneverbeforeintheirmutualhistory.Ifthe40thanniversaryofSino-USdiplomaticrelationshipprovesnothingelse,itprovesthatcooperationisinthebestinterestforbothcountrieswhileconfrontationdoesneithercountryanygood.Tosucceed,bothcountriesmustworktogether.Inspiteofalloftheobstaclesthrownatitlastyear,thestateofbusinessinSouthChinaforAmericaninvestmentremainsrobust.Almostallofthebusinesseswhoparticipatedinour2019SpecialReportontheStateofBusinessinSouthChinaremainprofitableinChinaandoptimistictowardsthefutureoftheeconomy.China’sJanuaryexportandimportdata,releasedshortlybeforethispublicationwenttoprint,showChina’sJanuarydollar-denominatedexportsrose9.1percentfromayearago,healthilybeatingaforecastofa3.2percentcontraction.China’simportsfell1.5percentoverthesameperiodprovingfarbetterthantheten-percentpredicteddecline.China’soveralltradesurplusofUS$39.16billioninJanuaryalsooutperformedtheestimates.TheJanuaryfigurescaneasilyconfirmthefindingsofthisSpecialReportasmanycompanieshavetakenadvantageofthe90-daytrucebetweentheUSandChina,completingordersforrushdeliveryfromtheUSandChina.Thoseordersordealsaccountfor20to30percentofthecompanies’annualnumbers.ThegoodnewsisthatPresidentTrumpannouncedinmid-FebruaryduringtradenegotiationsbetweenthetwocountriesthathemayextendaMarch1deadlineforadealandkeeptariffsonChinesegoodsfromrising.Amongmanyfindings,theSpecialReportsuggestsmostbusinessexecutiveshavehadsufficienttimetoassessthepresentandpossiblefutureimpactofthetrade中国改革开放40多年来，经济社会发展取得的非凡成就，为世界和平与繁荣提供了历史性机遇。仅美中两国的日贸易额便超过了15亿美元，两国关系的紧密程度达到历史最高点。要说美中建交40周年证明了什么，那便是“合则两利，斗则俱伤”。要实现共赢，两国必须协同发展。尽管去年障碍重重，但美资企业在华南地区的投资依然强劲。华南美国商会的《2019华南地区经济情况特别报告》（下简称《特别报告》）显示，几乎所有外资企业在华均保持盈利状态，并对未来经济发展持乐观态度。2019年1月中国进出口数据显示，以美元计，中国出口同比增长9.1%，比3.2%的预期降幅要好；进口同比下降1.5%，远比10%的预期降幅要好。当月贸易顺差为391.6亿美元，也超出了市场预期。以上数据印证了《特别报告》的结论：众多企业利用美中为期90天的“休战期”，交付了两国的紧急订单。此类订单量或交易额在上述企业年度数据中的占比达20%至30%。好消息是，特朗普总统在2月中旬两国贸易谈判期间宣布，他愿意考虑将3月1号对中国加征关税的期限延后，并保持对华进口税率，暂不上调。《特别报告》的许多调查结果也显示，大多数企业高管有足够的时间来评估贸易争端对企业业务的短期冲击及未来潜在的影响，同时相应地扩大2019年在美中两国的再投资计划。虽然中国经济确实略有放缓，但仍以超过6%的速度增长。在2018年推迟再投资的企业增加了2019年在华再投资的预算，以解决去年因此得不到满足而增加的客户需求。然而，尽管面向中国市场的生产再投资大幅增加，但某些企业也将出口制造的相关部分再投资转移至其他亚洲国家。或许这些企业是在两方下注。同时，美中两国的新闻媒体充斥着双方的高谈阔论和报复性关税的报道。大多数受访企业认为，美中两国的争端可能会在2019年后的很长一段时期内产生影响。且到目前为止，美中两国的关税对企业的负面影响已经超过了正面影响。然而，相比过去两年，受访企业2018年全球年收入和中国市场年收入的波动幅度很小，越来越多的企业亲爱的会员：President’sMessage会长致辞disputeontheirbusinesses,andhaveincreasedtheir2019plansforreinvestmentsintheUSandChinaaccordingly.WhileitistruethatChina’seconomyhassloweddownslightly,itisstillgrowingatarateofoversixpercent.Companieswhichpostponedtheirreinvestmentsin2018haveincreasedtheirbudgetsforreinvestmentsinChinain2019inordertokeepupwithcustomerdemand—aneedintensifiedbythepostponementoftheirreinvestmentsin2018.However,whilethereinvestmentsinChinarelatedtotheproductionfortheChinesemarkethaveincreasedsubstantially,afewcompanieshavealsoshiftedsomeexport-manufacturing-relatedreinvestmentstootherAsiancountries.Perhapsthesecompaniesarehedgingtheirbets.Thenewsmediahasbeenfullofloftyrhetoricandreportsofretaliatorytariffsfrombothsides.MostoftherespondentsbelievethatthedisputebetweentheUSandChinamayhaverepercussionslongafter2019,andthatsofar,thenegativeimpactofthecombinedtariffsoncompanieshasexceededthepositive.However,comparedwiththepasttwoyears,companiesonlyreportveryslightfluctuationsintheglobalannualrevenueandannualrevenueinChinain2018.AnincreasingnumberofourrespondentshavegainedmorerevenuefromChina,andmorecompaniesreportthatthepercentageoftheirglobalannualrevenuefromChinahasincreasedcomparedwith2017.Mostofthecompaniesreportthattheiroverallreturnon