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GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotofiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.4IP,BXBOP TIPLBXBOP!HTDPN(PMENBO4BDIT+BQBO$P-UE3JDLZ5TBOH$' SJDLZUTBOH!HTDPN(PMENBO4BDIT TJB--$+JOHZVBO-JV KJOHZVBOMJV!HTDPN(PMENBO4BDIT+BQBO$P-UETheChineseTouristBoomWhereNow,WhereNext?November20,2015China’soutboundtourismissettobloomoverthenext10yearsandleaveitsmarkonawiderrangeofdestinations.Fueledbyexperience-hungrymillennialsandagrowingmiddleclass,thenumberofChinesepassportholdersisforecasttoswellby100millionoverthedecade–equaltoalmost1.5xallUSoutboundtouriststoday.WhileHongKongandMacauwillremainimportantdestinations,thesurgewillleadtodramaticincreasesinvisitorstodestinationTacrossAsia,Europeandbeyond.+PTIVB-V KPTIVBMV!HTDPN(PMENBO4BDIT TJB--$5IFTJBO$POTVNFSNovember20,2015AsiaPacific:RetailGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2TableofcontentsChinesetourismineightcharts4Overview:Sixkeyquestions6Chinesetourismbynumbers8Q1:Howmanycouldtravel?11Q2:Whoarethey?14Q3:Whydotheytravel?21Q4:Wheredotheygo?25Q5:Iscapacityanissue?41Q6:Whatcouldslowthetide?52Appendix64DisclosureAppendix66Thisisanabridgedversionof“TheChineseTouristBoom:WhereNow,WhereNext?”originallypublishedNovember20,2015.AnalystteamcontributorsAnalystTelephoneEmailAnalystTelephoneEmailJapanRetailHongKongRetailShoKawano+81(3)64379905sho.kawano@gs.comJoshuaLu+85229781024joshua.lu@gs.comJingyuanLiu+81(3)64379858jingyuan.liu@gs.comRickyTsang+85229786631ricky.tsang@gs.comAlanLee+85229780953alan.lee@gs.comJapanHotel/REITHongKongConglomaratesSachikoOkada+81(3)64379937sachiko.okada@gs.comSimonCheung+85229786102simon.cheung@gs.comAkiraWatanabe+81(3)64379819akira.watanabe@gs.comAlexYe+85229786666alex.ye@gs.comJapanTransportationHongKongTransportationKenyaMoriuchi+85229781255kenya.moriuchi@gs.comRonaldKeung+852-2978-0856ronald.keung@gs.comTaikiOkada+81(3)64379917taiki.okada@gs.comKoreaRetailEURetailChristineCho+82(2)37881773christine.cho@gs.comWilliamHutchings+44(20)70513017william.hutchings@gs.comJeanLee+82(2)37881729jean.x.lee@gs.comIsabelZhangZhang+44(20)75524644isabel.zhangzhang@gs.comTaiwanRetailUSRetailMichelleCheng+866(2)27304181michelle.cheng@gs.comMattFassler+1(212)9026740matt.fassler@gs.comGoldieChang+6566545154goldie.chang@gs.comLindsayDruckerMann+1(212)3574993lindsay.druckermann@gs.comASEANRetailUSLeisureJuneZhu+6568892466june.zhu@gs.comStevenKent+1(212)9026752steven.kent@gs.comAfuaAhwoi+1(212)9021760afua.ahwoi@gs.comHongKongInternet/MediaDavidJin+852-2978-1466david.jin@gs.comNovember20,2015AsiaPacific:RetailGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch3TheChineseTourismBoom:BytheNumbers4%Thepassport-owningpopulationinChina(vs.35%intheUS).Weexpectthisfiguretoreach12%within10years.(Page16)PASSPORTPOTENTIAL28%MIDDLE-CLASSMOBILITYThepercentageofoutboundChinesetouristsfromthe“urbanmiddle”class,comparedtojust3%fromthe“urbanmass.”(Page17)GRADUATEANDGOThenumberoftravel-readymillennialswhowillgraduatefromChineseuniversitiesinthenext10years.(Page18)74mn220mnTHE10-YEARTRAVELOUTLOOKThenumberofChineseresidentswhowilltraveloverseasin2025,upfrom120mnthisyear.(Page13)70mnHEADEDTOHONGKONGANDMACAU…FORNOWThenumberofChinesetravelerswhowillvisitHongKongandMacauin2015—twodestinationsthatdon’trequireapassport.(Page27)NEXTSTOP(S):JAPANANDBEYONDThenumberofChineseresidentswhowillvisitJapanin2025,upfrom5mnin2015.WealsoexpectKorea,AustraliaandEuropetobecometouristhotspots.(Page26)16mnTheaverageamountthatChineseresidentsspendon“havingmorefun.”Thisislessthan10%ofthepercapitaamountintheUS,JapanandKorea,butpoisedtogrowasChinaspendsmoreonleisure.(Page24)“HAVINGFUN”BUDGET$230/yrTheaveragecostofapackagetourtoJapan,includingmoneyspentonshopping($1,000).(Page21)$2,000VACATIONCOSTSTheamountChinesetouristswillspendontraveloverseasin2025,anincreaseof$250bnfromtoday’sfigures.(Page35)THEACCOMPANYINGRETAILBOOM$450bnThediscountChinesetouristscanexpectwhenshoppinginJapan,KoreaandHongKong,addingtotheselocations’appeal.(Page39)20-30%BARGAINHUNTING3hoursTheflighttimefromShanghaitoTokyo.ChinesetouristscanflytomostAsiancountriesinfourhoursorless.(Page29)UPINTHEAIR45VISARESTRICTIONSLIMITTRAVELThenumberofcountriesthatofferChinesetouristsvisasuponarrival.Incontrast,172countriesoffervisasonarrivalforJapaneseandKoreantourists.(Page60)November20,2015AsiaPacific:RetailGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4ChinesetourismineightchartsExhibit1:Weestimateonly4%oftheChinesepopulationownsapassport…PassportownershipbycountryExhibit2:…assuch,weexpectChinesetouristnumberstokeepgrowing…Chinesetouristgrowthoutlookbydestination(GS