瑞银全球休闲商品与服务业中国出境旅游整体数据强劲但基本结果却表明情况并非如此201962547页

GlobalResearch25June2019ChinaOutboundTravelUBSEvidenceLabinside:headlinenumberrobust,butunderlyingresultssuggestotherwiseMixedresultsandpotentialtoweakenfurtherTheninthUBSEvidenceLabsurveyidentifiesthreeareaswefoundinteresting:1)Chinaoutboundtravelintentionhasreachedarecord-high;2)butfurtheranalysisontripduration,spendingandplan-to-visitdestinationsrevealsweakerunderlyingpatterns;and3)Thailand,KoreaandTaiwanhavefalleninpopularity,despiteconsensusexpectingrecoveries.WithescalationofUS-Chinatradetensionsandrenminbidevaluationsincethesurvey,wenowforecasta6%CAGRover2019-20forChinaoutboundtravel(excludingHongKongandMacau),belowthe15%in2018;wethinkHongKongandMacaucouldoutpacetheothermarkets.Strongintentiontotravel,butweakunderlyingpatternsInApril2019,UBSEvidenceLabsurveyed3,314residentsinTier1-4cities.Theaveragenumberofoutboundtripsplannedforthenext12monthsbyT1&2/T3&4residentsimprovedtoarecordhighof2.9/2.6timesfrom2.7/2.2timesinApril2018.IntentiontovisitHongKongandMacaualsogrew.However,furtheranalysissuggestsweakertravelpatterns,includingshortertripdurationandfewerplan-to-visitdestinations.Againstexpectations,travelintentionweakensformostmarketsWhiletheoveralltravelintentionhasimproved,thattomostdestinationshasfallencomparedwiththeApril2018surveyresults,asrespondentsselectedfewerplan-to-visitdestinations.Webelievethiscouldbeduetotravellerschoosingtodecidetheirdestinationlater,whichposestheriskoftheirtripsnotmaterialising.Japanretaineditstoppositionasmostplanned-to-visitdestinationinthenext12monthswithmindsharestillsubstantiallyhigherthanforothers.Australiaregaineditssecondposition,whileKoreaandThailandfellonepositioneachtothirdandfourth,respectively.Taiwan,whichhadimprovedinrecentmonths,fellfourplacesinrankingto12th.Spendonvalue-for-moneyanddiversificationastravelbudgetfallsWecontinuetoseediversificationoftravelactivities,fromsightseeingtoin-depthtours.Actualspendingandbudgetontravelfell,mostlyonairfareandaccommodation,inlinewithrisingpreferenceforlow-costcarriersandbudgethotels.Duty-freeshopsatChineseairportsgainedmindshareasapopularshoppingchannels,whileinKoreaduty-freesalesismainlydrivenbyresellingactivity.WelistourmostandleastpreferredstockswithexposuretoChinaoutboundtravelbelow.Figure1:SummaryofstocksexposedtoChinaoutboundtravelCompanyReuterscodeRatingPT(LC)ExposuretoChinaoutboundtravelShanghaiInt'lAirport600009.SSBuy79.88Weexpectdutyfreesalestocontribute80%to2019earningsandlaunchofsatelliteterminalDFSin2020CITS601888.SSBuy98.3680%marketshareinChinadutyfree.Catalystsincludeintroducingdowntownduty-freeshoppingforoutboundtravellersMinorInt'lMINT.BKBuy45.00OneofthelargesthospitalitygroupsinAPACandbeneficiaryofstructuralgrowthinChinaoutboundtravelBDMSBDMS.BKBuy29.00IncreaseinforeignpatientrevenuewithChinesepatientnumbersgrowingrapidlyinthepastfewquartersCtrip.comInt'lCTRP.ONeutral41.00CtripusagegenerallydeclinedYoY,leadingustomoderateourrevenuegrowthestimatesfor2019/20andlowerourpricetargettoUS$41.00(seenotehere)ErawanERW.BKNeutral7.00Asapurehoteloperator,ErawanismorevulnerabletoaslowdowninChinesetouristnumbersAmorepacific090430.KSSell125000Amore'sChinabusinessrecoverycouldremaindifficultgivenitsmass-segment-focusedbrandportfolioSydneyAirportSYD.AXSell7.00At8%ChinesenationalsarethelargestcontributorstointernationalpassengersthroughSydneyAirportAirportsofThailandAOT.BKSell58.00RecoveryofChinesevisitorsslowerthanexpected;trafficgrowthlimitedbyslotconstraintsAucklandInt'lAirportAIA.NZSell6.25ThesurveyresultsimplysignificantimprovementinthearrivaltrendsYTDinChinesevisitorarrivalsSource:UBSestimatesEquitiesGlobalLeisureGoods&[e-mail][e-mail][phone]ChinaOutboundTravel25June20192ContentsOURTHESISINPICTURES...................................................................4PIVOTALQUESTIONS.........................................................................5Q:CanthehighgrowthofChinaoutboundtravelin2018besustained?...5Q:HowhasthetravelbehaviourofChineseoutboundtravellerschanged?10MARKETANALYSIS..........................................................................17Japan.........................................................................................................17Australia....................................................................................................18Korea.........................................................................................................20Thailand.....................................................................................................22HongKong&Macau...