麦格理海南政策利好前景乐观消费旅游201912852页

Pleaserefertopage50forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite(con’t)3IntroductiontoHainan4PilotFreeTradeZonebringsinnewopportunities9Duty-freepolicyrelaxationcontinues11Buildinganinternationaltourismandconsumptioncentre17ChinaInt'lTravelService(A-Share)19SunArtRetailGroup30MacVisit:SongchengPerformanceDevelopment34MacVisit:FosunTourismGroup38MacVisit:HaichangOceanPark42MacVisit:RegalInternationalAirport46AnalystsMacquarieCapitalLimitedLindaHuang,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]awaysHainan:positiveoutlookwithpolicytailwindsKeypointsFTZbringsinnewopportunities,whileduty-freepolicyrelaxationcontinues.Diversifyingtourismproductsandimprovingtransportationfacilitiescouldattractmoretourists.CITScouldbeamajorbeneficiary.ConclusionWehostedavisittoHainanandmetwithcompanies/expertsintheduty-freeshopping,tourism/leisure,retailandairportsectors.OverallweseeapositiveoutlookforHainanwiththepolicytailwindsfromthePilotFreeTradeZone(FTZ)andoffshoreduty-freequotarelaxation,whilediversifyingtourismproductsandimprovingtransportationfacilitiescouldcontinuetoattracttourists.WebelieveCITScouldbeamajorbeneficiarywithexpectedconsolidationintheoffshoreduty-freemarket.ImpactFTZbringsinnewopportunities,whileduty-freepolicyrelaxationcontinues.AsthelargestFTZinChina,HainanFTZhasbeenintroducingagreatnumberofpreferentialpoliciestoattractcapital,enterprises,andtalent,bothdomesticandfromoverseas,andhasalreadyseensomepositivefeedback.ItsultimategoalistobecomeaFreePort.Asforduty-freeshopping,saleshasexperiencedpositivegrowthafterthelatestroundofquotaraise,whiletheopeningsoftwonewDFScouldmakefurthercontributions.ThecontinuouspolicyrelaxationsupportsourviewthatthegovernmentaimstodevelopHainanintoaduty-freeshoppingmecca.Diversifyingtourismproductsandimprovingtransportationfacilitiescouldattractmoretourists.Tobestutilizeitsabundanttourismresources,Hainanhasbeendiversifyingitstourismproductofferings.Whiletraditionalentertainmentsitesandperformanceshowsmaintaintheirmomentum,premium-orientedsiteslikeAtlantisSanyahavestartedtowelcomevisitors.Newproductsinhealthtourism,cultural/digitaltourism,meetings,incentives,conferencesandexhibitions(MICE),andsportstourismaregainingmoreattention.Intermsoftransportation,Hainanisexpandingitsairportcapacitieswithexpansion/upgradestooldairportsandconstructionofnewairports,whilerail/highwaytransportisdevelopingfast.CITScouldbeamajorbeneficiary.Fromoursitevisitsandexpertmeetings,wemaintainourpositiveviewonChinaInternationalTravelService(CITS).WethinkitsSanyaDFScouldbenefitfromthequotarelaxation,whileexpectedshareinjectionfromHainanDutyFreecouldallowCITStogaincontroloverallfourDFSinHainan.WebelieveCITScanmaintainafavourablepositionintheoffshoreduty-freemarketatleastinthemid-term.OutlookWemaintainourcautiousviewontheconsumersectorandsuggestinvestorswaitfordownwardconsensusearningsrevisionstobecompleted.Topsells:Hengan,Dali,CRB,Samsonite;topbuy:CITS.WealsosuggestrevisitingChinaModernDairy,WantWant,Yili,WHGroup.MacquarieResearchChinaconsumertourtakeaways28January20192HK/ChinaconsumervaluationtableFig1HK/Chinaconsumervaluationtable(1)CompanyCodePriceRatingTPUpsideMktCapP/E(X)P/B(X)ROE(%)EPSGrowth(%)PEGDivyield(%)FCFyield(%)(lcy/sh)(lcy/sh)(%)US$m2018E2019E2018E2019E2018E2019E2018E2019E2019E2018E2019E2018E2019EDepartmentstoresGoldenEagle3308HK8.26OP11.7042%1,78110.89.91.91.717.717.8-13.28.81.14.44.85.40.4Lifestyle1212HK11.74OP17.5049%2,18210.09.03.93.242.539.338.811.00.85.45.410.38.6LuxurySamsonite1910HK22.10UP18.40-17%4,03119.317.22.22.115.413.55.7-8.3-2.12.02.2-1.11.9Prada1913HK25.05OP43.0072%7,90920.918.52.32.211.612.139.112.71.53.43.84.84.0ChowTaiFook1929HK6.50Neutral5.70-12%8,06815.914.81.91.912.612.936.37.32.08.85.0-3.04.3LukFook590HK22.35UP18.80-16%1,6699.69.01.31.214.514.034.87.01.34.04.93.00.3ChowSangSang116HK11.28OP22.70101%9346.86.00.70.610.611.246.714.30.45.96.615.615.6LaoFengXiang600612CH42.11OP62.0047%2,71415.013.03.22.823.022.913.815.20.92.42.9-15.930.5SportswearAntaSports2020HK37.45OP42.0012%12,50721.117.65.65.028.330.133.320.00.93.64.43.94.5LiNing2331HK9.42Neutral9.20-2%2,70928.321.83.42.912.714.533.930.10.70.00.01.94.5CosmeticsSaSa178HK2.78Neutral2.801%1,11919.016.93.43.518.720.330.812.31.46.36.56.92.0L'Occitane973HK13.80Neutral13.70-1%2,69623.621.62.42.310.410.9-26.99.22.31.92.14.65.0ShanghaiJahwa600315CH27.68UP20.20-27%2,62542.845.13.23.07.86.933.2-5.2-8.71.51.51.4-2.5HomeapplianceretailersGOME493HK0.67UP0.40-40%1,813NANA0.80.9-5.2-3.3107.6-51.7NA0.00.0-14.6-21.2Suning002024CH10.77Neutral14.0030%14,8941,453.2154.81.31.30.10.8-143.4839.0NA0.90.10.00.0HaierElectronics1169HK21.00OP21.804%7,21713.011.82.11.917.516.916.410.81.11.31.82.56.4QingdaoHaier