皮尤展望美国未来30年发展前景调查报告2019358页

FORRELEASEMARCH21,2019BYKimParker,RichMorinandJulianaHorowitzFORMEDIAOROTHERINQUIRIES:KimParker,Director,SocialTrendsResearchRichMorin,SeniorEditorJessicaPumphrey,CommunicationsAssociate202.419.4372“LookingtotheFuture,PublicSeesanAmericainDeclineonManyFronts”1PEWRESEARCHCENTER’sreportsareavailableat©PewResearchCenter20192PEWRESEARCHCENTER(56%)saytheyareatleastsomewhatoptimisticaboutAmerica’sfuture,hopegiveswaytodoubtwhenthefocusturnstospecificissues.AnewPewResearchCentersurveyfocusedonwhatAmericansthinktheUnitedStateswillbelikein2050findsthatmajoritiesofAmericansforeseeacountrywithaburgeoningnationaldebt,awidergapbetweentherichandthepoorandaworkforcethreatenedbyautomation.Majoritiespredictthattheeconomywillbeweaker,healthcarewillbelessaffordable,theconditionoftheenvironmentwillbeworseandolderAmericanswillhaveahardertimemakingendsmeetthantheydonow.Alsopredicted:aterroristattackasbadasorworsethan9/11sometimeoverthenext30years.Thesegrimpredictionsmirror,inpart,thepublic’ssourmoodaboutthecurrentstateofthecountry.TheshareofAmericanswhoaredissatisfiedwiththewaythingsaregoinginthecountry–seven-in-teninJanuaryof2019–ishighernowthanatanytimeinthepastyear.PublicisbroadlypessimisticaboutthefutureofAmerica%saying…Note:Shareofrespondentswhodidn’tofferananswernotshown.Source:SurveyofU.S.adultsconductedDec.11-23,2018.“LookingtotheFuture,PublicSeesanAmericainDeclineonManyFronts”PEWRESEARCHCENTER4PEWRESEARCHCENTER’spoliticalleadership.Nearlynine-in-tenpredictthatawomanwillbeelectedpresident,androughlytwo-thirds(65%)saythesameaboutaHispanicperson.And,onadecidedlyoptimisticnote,morethanhalfexpectacureforAlzheimer’sdiseaseby2050.Thepublicalsohasasomewhatmorepositiveview–oratleastamorebenignone–ofsomecurrentdemographictrendsthatwillshapethecountry’sfuture.TheU.S.CensusBureaupredictsthat,by2050,blacks,Hispanics,Asiansandotherminoritieswillconstituteamajorityofthepopulation.Aboutfour-in-tenAmericans(42%)saythisshiftwillbeneithergoodnorbadforthecountrywhile35%believeamajority-minoritypopulationwillbeagoodthing,and23%sayitwillbebad.Theseviewsdiffersignificantlybyraceandethnicity.WhitesareabouttwiceaslikelyasblacksorHispanicstoviewthischangenegatively(28%ofwhitesvs.13%ofblacksand12%ofHispanics).And,whenaskedabouttheconsequencesofanincreasinglydiverseAmerica,nearlyhalfofwhites(46%)butonlyaquarterofHispanicsand18%ofblackssayamajority-minoritycountrywouldweakenAmericancustomsandvalues.ThepublicviewsanotherprojectedchangeinthedemographiccontoursofAmericamoreominously.By2050,peopleages65andolderarepredictedtooutnumberthoseyoungerthan18,achangethata56%majorityofalladultssaywillbebadforthecountry.Inthefaceoftheseproblemsandthreats,themajorityofAmericanshavelittleconfidencethatthefederalgovernmentandtheirelectedofficialsareuptomeetingthemajorchallengesthatlieNearlyhalfofwhitessayamajoritynonwhitepopulationwillweakenAmericanculture%sayinghavingamajorityofthepopulationmadeupofblacks,Asians,Hispanicsandotherracialminoritiesbytheyear2050will__AmericancustomsandvaluesNote:Shareofrespondentswhodidn’tofferananswernotshown.Whitesandblacksincludethosewhoreportbeingonlyoneraceandarenon-Hispanic.Hispanicsareofanyrace.Source:SurveyofU.S.adultsconductedDec.11-23,2018.“LookingtotheFuture,PublicSeesanAmericainDeclineonManyFronts”PEWRESEARCHCENTER302340463846182531304027AlladultsWhiteBlackHispanicWeakenStrengthenHavelittleimpact5PEWRESEARCHCENTER’sbiggestproblems,with48%sayingtheyareveryworriedaboutthis.And,whenaskedwhatimpactthefederalgovernmentwillhaveonfindingsolutionstothecountry’sfutureproblems,moresayWashingtonwillhaveanegativeimpactthanapositiveone(55%vs.44%).Instead