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GlobalResearch28May2019U.S.BeautyRetailUBSEvidenceLabinside:What'sHappeninginBeautyRetail,1Q'19OurpricingsurveyfoundthespecialtybeautypricingenvironmentstableWecheckedthepricesof275topULTAproducts(asofApr24)atotherretailersandfoundthatbeautypricingremainsrationalinthespecialtychannel.OnexactSKUmatcheswithULTA,Sephora'spriceswere0.1%moreexpensive(in-lineinJan),JWNwasin-line(0.1%premiuminJan),&Macy'swas-0.2%cheaper(3.2%premiuminJan).Givenpricingwasessentiallyon-paracrosstheboard,weseethecompetitiveenvironmentasrelativelystableinthespecialtybeautyanddepartmentstorechannel.Nordstromidentifiedahighlypromotionalbeautyenvironmentinits1Q'19WhileEL&Sephoracharacterizedthebeautypromotionalbackdropasrelativelystableintherecentperiod,Nordstromnoteditashighlypromotional.Assuch,weleveragedUBSEvidenceLabgeospatialdatatoidentifythosewithB&MoverlapwithNordstromlocations.Inparticular,92%ofNordstromstoreshaveaSephoracompanyownedstoreswithina5mindrive&84%facecompetitionfromMacy's.Interestingly,JWNfaceslesscompetitionfromULTA(41%ofNordstromstoreshaveanULTAwithina5mindrive).Thepromotionalpressuremaybecomingfromthosewithelevatedoverlap.ContinuedweaknessatJCPenneylikelybenefittedothersJCPreporteda-5.5%compdeclinein1Q'19,withthebeautycategoryperformingin-linewiththeoverallbusiness.Only20%haveaSephoracompanyownedstorewithina5mindrive.Assuch,wethinkit'sprobablynotrecapturingmuchlostsales.Further,58%haveanUltawithina5mindrive&77%withina10mindrive.Thus,ULTAcouldbecapturingthebulkofthedisplacedshare.45%haveaMacy'swithina5mindrive.ManyofULTA'stopproducts&newitemsarenotavailableelsewhereFor175top-sellinggoodsatULTA,only49%wereavailableatM,45%atSephora,&35%atJWN.Inmass,42%wereavailableatAMZN1P,29%atWMT1P,&15%atTGT.RecentadditionstoULTA'sassortmenttendtohavelimiteddistributionatotherretailers.Of100newitemstoULTA,only13%wereavailableatSephora,9%atM,&6%atJWN.Inaddition,therewaslimitedavailabilitythroughthemasschannel.Exclusiveproductsrepresent9%ofULTA'sassortment,withmanyotheritemsexclusivetothespecialtybeautychannel.ThesefactorsinsulateULTAfromcompetition,inourview.WethinkthisshouldsupportcontinuedcompgrowthatULTA.Figure1:ULTAtopproductsavailableatotherretailersFigure2:ULTApricesrelativetoothersonLFLitemsSource:UBSSource:UBS6%15%29%35%38%42%45%47%49%0%20%40%60%SBHTGTWMT1PJWNWMT3PAMZN1PSephoraAMZN3PMSephoraoffered45%ofULTA's175top-sellingproducts0%0%0%-13%-9%-13%-6%-29%-13%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%SephoraMJWNSBHTGTAMZN1PAMZN3PWMT1PWMT3PULTAwaspricedin-linewithSephora,Macy's,&Nordstromonlike-for-likeitemsEquitiesAmericasRetailers,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]PinarErgun,[e-mail][phone]GustavoPirasOliveira,[e-mail][phone]JulieZhuang,[e-mail][phone]U.S.BeautyRetail28May20192TableofContents•KeyTakeaways–Takeaway#1–WfooterlanswitfJCPelley/Senforastores?–Takeaway#2–WfooterlanswitfNorbstromstores?–Takeaway#3–ProbsatoterlanwitfULTAismalaeeable–Takeaway#4–Cosmetiasstoresalesbeaeleratebil1Q'19–Takeaway#5–ULTA'snriailebistribstiolisattraatite•MolitoriletfePriaileCltirolmelt–UBSCtibelaeLabPriaileIltellieelae•MolitoriletfePriaileCltirolmelt–BeastyRetailPriaile&Atailability•MolitoriletfeStoreLalbsaane–UBSCtibelaeLabStoreOterlan•MolitoriletfeStoreLalbsaane–UBSCtibelaeLabDemoeranfias•MolitoriletfeStoreLalbsaane–UBSCtibelaeLabReeiolalCxnossre•Annelbix1:MetfoboloeyPaee3Paee4Paee5Paee6Paee7Paee8Paee9Paee12Paee19Paee31Paee34Paee40U.S.BeautyRetail28May20193KeyTakeawaysSeatiol1U.S.BeautyRetail28May20194Takeaway#1–WhooverlapswithJCPenney/Sephorastores?•JCPelleyrenorteba-5.5#aomnbealileil1Q'19.Fsrtfer,olitsearlilesaall,tfeaomnalylotebtfattfebeastyaateeorynerformebil-lilewitftfeoterallbssiless.AsssafweleteraeebUBSCtibelaeLabbatatoibeltifytfosewitfeletatebletelofstoreoterlanwitfSenforastoreswitfilastoreatJCPelleyloaatiols.•SenforastoreswitfilastorefaaebireataomnetitiolfromULTA.Ata10milstebritetime,77#ofSenforastoreswitfilastoreaomnetewitfalULTAstore.Tfislsmberrisesto87#wfelaolsiberilea15milbritetime.•RelatitetotfeDenartmeltStores,56#ofSenforastoreswitfilastoreaomnetewitfaMaay'salb14#ofSenforastoreswitfilastoreaomnetewitfaNorbstromwitfila15milstebritetime.•SenforastoresareloaatebalosetoSallyBeasty.96#ofSenforastoreswitfilastoreaomnetewitfSallyBeastyata10milstebritetime.Tfeoterlanrisesto99#wfelaolsiberilea15milstebritetime.Source:UBSEvidence