2018农业发展大会PPT美国农产品市场2018年预测及长期展望农业英文2018432页

OfficeoftheChiefEconomistU.S.AgriculturalOutlook2018andLonger-termprojectionsRobertJohanssonChiefEconomistUSDepartmentofAgricultureBeijing,China(April2018)2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistIMFgrowthforecastsmoreoptimistic3.003.504.004.505.005.5020142015201620172018201920202021April2017forecastOctober2017forecastApril2018forecastPercentchangeWorld3.003.504.004.505.005.5020142015201620172018201920202021April2017forecastOctober2017forecastApril2018forecastPercentchangeEmergingmarketsanddevelopingcountriesData:IMF.22018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistDollardepreciatingsofarin2018versuscustomercurrencies-10-505101520252015201620172018todateCanadiandollarKoreawonJapanyenMexicopesoTaiwandollarChinayuan%changeY-O-YData:ThomsonReutersDatastream32018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistDownversusmostcompetitorcurrenciestoo-20-100102030405060702015201620172018todateArgentinapesoAustraliadollarBrazilrealCanadiandollarEurozoneeuroRussiaruble%changeY-O-YData:ThomsonReutersDatastream42018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOutlookforWorldAgriculture•USDAshorttermoutlookforU.S.agriculturein2018•USDAlongtermagriculturalprojectionsto202752018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistShortTermOutlookforU.S.Crops62018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistGlobalproductionandconsumptioncontinuenearrecordhighs3004005006007008002013/142014/152015/162016/17F2017/18*MMTProductionConsumptionWheatData:USDA-OCE,USDA-FAS3004005006007008009001,0001,1001,200MMTProductionConsumptionCorn050100150200250300350400MMTProductionConsumptionSoybeans72018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistGlobalendingstockstocontinuerelativelyhigh,moderatingpricevolatility4080120160200020022004200620082010201220142016WheatCornRiceSoybeansEndingstocksdaysofuseData:USDA.82018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistChinastocks,percentofworldtotal0204060801990199319961999200220052008201120142017FWheatCornRiceSoybeansCottonPercentData:USDA9ChinaStocks17/18(MMT)Wheat127Corn80Rice94Soybeans21Cotton92018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistSomeU.S.pricesexpectedtoedgeupin2018/2019Source:USDA.FromUSDABaseline.OthercolumnsfromApril10,2018WASDE20142015201620172018F%∆Wheat($/MT)220180143171173+1%Corn($/MT)146142132132134+2%Soybeans($/MT)3713293483423400%Cotton($/MT)1,3511,3491,4991,4991,389-9%AllRice($/MT)295269229278262-5%102018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistCroplandareadownfromlastyearSource:USDA.Allcotton,includesbothuplandandELScotton.*Prospectiveplantings,March29,2018Crop(mil.hectares)20142015201620172018F%∆Corn36.735.638.036.535.6-2%Soybeans33.733.533.836.536.0-1%Wheat23.022.320.318.619.1+3%Allcotton4.53.54.15.15.5+7%Otherfeedgrains5.26.25.14.34.4+2%Rice1.21.11.31.01.1+8%Principalcrops132.1129.1129.2129.1128.7-0.3%112018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOutlookforLivestockandDairy122018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistU.S.beef,pork,poultry,andmilkproductionforecastatrecordlevelsfor2018Datainreddenoterecordlevels.1TotalredmeatandpoultrySource:USDA.20142015201620172018F%∆MillionmetrictonsBeef1111111213+5%Pork1011111212+5%Broilers1818191919+2%Total14243444647+2%MillionmetrictonsMilk9495969899+2%132018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOCOfficeoftheChiefEconomistOfficeoftheChiefEconomistLivestockanddairypricesareforecasttofallin2018Source:USDA.20142015201620172018F%∆DollarspermetrictonSteers3,4073,2652,6652,6792,566-4%Hogs1,6761,1071,0181,1131,009-9%Broilers2,3131,9951,8582,0612,103+2%Milk528378359389349-10%142018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018AOC2018A