JP摩根美股农业行业2019年Q2农业市场展望供应方面的制约推动了农业大宗商品的复苏2019667页

JPMAgriculturalMarketsOutlook2Q19SupplysideconstraintsfuelagricommodityrecoveryJune2019TraceyAllen(44-20)[e-mail]eendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.1AgriculturalMarketsOutlook–TangiblesupplysideconstraintswillcontinuetodriveagricommoditypricesoffthelowsWeatherpremiumsreturnedtoagriculturalmarketsin2Q19,promptingavastimprovementinperformancewhichshouldbesustainedin2H19.Up2%through2Q19to-date,theJ.P.MorganAgricultureIndexisnowleadingtheperformanceacrossthecommoditycomplexthisquarter.UnprecedentedUSplantingdelaysdriveconcernfornewcropsuppliesamidadverseconditionsinotherexportregions,promptingwidespreadinvestorshortcoveringandcommercialre-positioning.Weatherrisksarenotsubsiding,ElNiñoappearstobeintensifyingandgrainpricesarenotyetatlevelswhichdestroydemand.Despitethesofteroutlookforglobalgrowth,demandsideheadwindshavefadedintotheperipherysomewhat.However,UStradedisputesareunderminingthemarketshareofUSagriexports,notonlytoChinaamidtheunresolvedtradewar,butthepotentialforUStariffsonMexico–theleadingimporterofUScorn,alsoraisesconcernforadditionalretaliationanddislocationsinUStradeflows.Tangiblesupplysideconstraintsacrossgrainmarkets,andtighteningfundamentalsacrossthesoftswillcontinuetodrivetheagricommoditycomplexoffthelows.WeholdhighconvictionthattheseidiosyncraticfactorswhicharetighteningUSandworldagriculturalfundamentalsfaster-than-anticipatedwillovershadowthebearishimpactofalowgrowth/lowinflationenvironmentthrough2H19.Traderecommendations:westaylongtheagriindexandlongICE#11Sugarinanticipationofacontinuedimprovementinperformancethrough2H19.1Images:PixabayAGRICULTURALCOMMODITIESQUARTERLY2Q19Source:Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearch,*asofclose6June2019NearbycontractpriceYOYandYTDchange(%)Supplysideconstraintsfuelagricommodityrecovery2•TheJ.P.MorganAgricultureIndexhasoutperformedthebroadcommodityindexthrough2Q19,andappearstoberecoveringoffmulti-yearlows.Therapidturnaroundinperformancemid-quarterhasbeenledbyamaterialgrainsupplyshock,whichwehavelongflaggedandbeenpositionedfor(AgriculturalMarketsOutlook:Shortcoveringrisksahead...,Allen,22March).•ThetimingofthesupplyledbreakoutandcommencementofanuptrendintheBCOMAgriculture&LivestockIndexhasoccurredataninterestingjunctureofheightenedrisksforglobalgrowth,andunprecedentedUSexportimpediments.Thedeteriorationinthemacrooutlook,coupledwithrecordsoybeanavailabilityandlargeLatamexportablecornsupplieswilllikelyweighontheextentofupsidepricerecoverythrough3Q19.BUTfurthersupplysidedisruptionswouldlikelyfuelarecoveryingrainpricestolevelsnotseensince2012/13.•TheintensificationoftheUS-Chinatradewarisnowweighingmoreseverelyontheglobalgrowthoutlookandacutelyonbusinesssentiment.WenowexpectChinatomaintainretaliatorytariffsonUSimportswellinto2020.Whilethepossibilityofatradeagreementbeforethispointholdsalowprobability,itremainsasignificantlybullishalbeitperipheralriskfactorforagrimarkets.•Lookinginto2H19,ICE#11Sugarremainsourmostbullishcall,andat15USc/lb,our4Q19forecastcallsfora23%rallyfromspot,astheworldmarkettransitionstoadeficitbalance.•Traderecommendations:westaylongtheagriindexandlongICE#11Sugarinanticipationofacontinuedimprovementinperformancethrough2H19.AGRICULTURALCOMMODITIESQUARTERLY2Q1928.6%17.5%11.9%4.9%3.2%2.6%2.0%2.0%1.6%1.4%1.1%0.6%-0.5%-1.2%-1.9%-2.9%-2.9%-3.2%-5.4%-5.6%-5.9%-7.6%-12.0%-12.9%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%CMELeanHogsCMEClassIIIMilkCBOTCornICE#11RawSugarICE#5WhiteSugarICEArabicaCoffeeJPMCCIAgriIndexMinneapolisWheatCBOTSoymealICENYCocoaICECocoaLondonCBOTWheatCBOTSoybeanOilBCOMAgriIndexMDE-BursaPalmOilCBOTSoybeansEuronextMaizeICE#2CottonICERobustaCoffeeICECanolaCMEFeeerCattleCBOTKansasWheatEuronextWheatCMELiveCattle2Q19YTD2019TangiblesupplysideconstraintswillcontinuetodriveagricommoditypricesoffthelowsSource:CBOT,ICE,Bloomberg,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchNote:AllForecastsareperiodaverages.J.P.Morganagricommoditypriceforecasts3•Lookinginto2H19,tangiblesupplysideconstraintsacrossgrainmarkets,andtighteningfundamentalsacrossthesoftswillcontinuetodriveagricommoditypricesoffthelows.WeholdhighconvictionthattheidiosyncraticfactorswhicharetighteningUSandworldagriculturalfundamentalsfaster-than-anticipatedwillovershadowthebearishimpactofalowgrowth/lowinflationenvironmentthrough2H19,andsupportasustainedrecoveryacrosstheagriculturalcomplex.•Theimpactoffoodpriceinflationshouldnotbeunderestimatedthrough2H19–offverybenignlevels.Weatherrisksarenotsubsiding,andgrainpricesarenotyetatlevelswhichdestroydemand.•USplantedacreageexpectationshavereducedforcorn(84.5mac),wheat(44.8mac),andcotton(13.6mac)relativetoourMarchbalances,whilesoybeanplantingwilllikelyriseto85millionac,duetoweatherrelateddelayselsewhere.•USacreagewillnotbeaccuratelyknownuntilAugust-September,andgiventhelateplantinganddelaysinprogress,productionforecastsareverysubjectiveatthispoint.•Traderecommendations:staylongtheagriculturalcomplexviaanindex,staylongICE#11SugarOctober‘1913.5–15USc/lbcallspread,short12.5USc/lbput.AGRICULTURA