巴克莱美股农业行业美国农业2019年3月Ben的牛肉配额201931823页

EquityResearch18March2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE18.Restricted-InternalAmericasAgribusinessBBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes:March2019DuetotheUSgovernmentshutdownanddelayeddataavailabilitywedecidedtoskipourFebruaryeditionofBBQ.Nowasdatafeedshavebeenupdated,wearepresentingourMarcheditionof“BBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes”.Asinthepastwehighlightimportantnews,majortrendsinagri-productpricing,demandandtradedata.Weincludeeggs,poultry,pork,somelambandveal–it’snotallbeef!NewsU.S.lawmakersdebateover‘meat’substitutesinfearofthethreatitposestotheUS$110bnU.S.meatmarket.Amongmanybillswhichhavebeenpresentedregardingplant-basedproducts,somewithoutsuccess,thelatestbillproposesmakingitillegaltolabelmeatalternatives/substitutesas‘meat’.Following25recallsofmillionsofpoundsofmeatandprocessedfoods,theUSDAsetsnewguidelinesforfoodcompanies.AnincreaseinrecallsofmeatandpoultryproductsdrovetheU.S.governmenttoincreaseitsregulatoryrequirementsfortheinternalinvestigationprocessesaswellasthewaythecompaniesreceiveanddealwithclientcomplaintsaroundthetopic.Prices&FeedOuroutlookcontinuestobecautiousconsideringongoinguncertaintyinsomemarkets.Overall,whilesomemetricshaveshownimprovementsormaintainhealthygrowth,othersremainunderpressuregivenvolatilityanduncertainty.Chickenproductionstillatpositivegrowthrates,whileturkeyandredmeatproductionhadaweakerperformance.Flattishslaughterratesandlowernumbersofturkeyeggsinincubatorsdroveredmeatandturkeyproductionscontractions.Trade&USDAU.S.–E.U.tradenegotiationsfocusonagriculturalissues.KeytopicsincludeUKmarkets’bansofproductsincludingGMOs,hormone-boostedbeef,andchlorine-cleanedchickens,amongothers.Weexpecttoseeanextensiveagendaahead.USDAtakesactiononfoodsafetyconcern.Chickenandbeefstandardsmustimproveinordertohelpthedomesticmarketaswellastoexpandtoothermarkets.Meatavailabilityexpectedtofurtherexpand.USDAestimatesfor2019poultryandredmeatpercapitaavailabilityat220.5mnlbs.(vs.218.8mnlbs.in2018).OurStocksStayingOWonTSN(TopPick),PPC,JBS&BRFS;EWonHRL&SAFMandUWonMRFG.INDUSTRYUPDATEAmericasAgribusinessNEUTRALUnchangedAm[e-mail],[e-mail],MexicoBarclays|AmericasAgribusiness18March20192CONTENTSAMERICASAGRIBUSINESS..............................................................................3News...................................................................................................................................................................3Commoditytrends.........................................................................................................................................4Priceperformance..........................................................................................................................................5EGGSANDPOULTRY........................................................................................6Production&Capacity..................................................................................................................................6Pricing................................................................................................................................................................7Feed-PriceRatios.........................................................................................................................................10Trade...............................................................................................................................................................11REDMEAT.........................................................................................................12Production&Capacity...............................................................................................................................12Pricing.............................................................................................................................................................14Feed-PriceRatios.........................................................................................................................................16Trade...............................................................................................................................................................17AllpricesareinU.S.dollarsunlessotherwisenoted.PROTEINCATEGORYHIGHLIGHTSPoultryChickenproductiongenerallymaintainedpositivegrowthrates,whiledataforturkeywasmixed.EggproductioninJanuarygrew+4.7%y/ywhi