巴克莱美股农业行业美国农业2019年6月牛肉配额201961723页

EquityResearch17June2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyequityresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE18.Restricted-InternalAmericasAgribusinessBBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes:June2019InourJuneeditionof“BBQ–Ben’sBeefQuotes”,wecontinuetofollowtheindustrynewsanddata.Supplyanddemandimbalancesandtradewarpressuresremaindriversofvolatilityanduncertainty,weremaincautiousahead.Asinthepastwehighlightimportantnews,majortrendsinagri-productpricing,demandandtradedata.Weincludeeggs,poultry,pork,somelambandveal–it’snotallbeef!NewsAgrowingnumberofplayersintheplant-basedmeatmarket.Perdue,BeyondMeat,TysonFoods,MapleLeafFoods,andNestle,amongothers,enterthealternativemeatsmarket.Growthfortheplant-basedsegmentisexpectedtobeledbythegoaltoreducemeatconsumptionasaresponsetorelatedhealthconcerns,environmentalrisks,andtheimpactonanimalwelfareinindustrialfarming.Theshiftinglobalmeattradecontinuestounfold;ChinauppeditsinspectionproceduresonCanadianmeatandmeatproducts,ontopofpreviousrestrictions.Smallchangesintheindustrylikethesecanincreaseuncertaintyandvolatilityinthemarket.Prices&FeedProductionwasstrongforredmeatgivenhigherslaughterrates,aswasforbroiler;yetweseemoreflattishtonegativegrowthratesforturkey.Pricescontinuedtoperformoverallmixed;wegenerallysawpositivey/ygrowth.Nonetheless,weremaincautiousonuncertaintyregardingsupply/demandbalancingoutalsoasinventorylevelsriseandvolatilityforsomemeatscontinues.Trade&USDAOpportunitiestofulfillthesupply/demandimbalanceobstructedbytradetariffs.Retaliatorytariffscontinuetopressureexports;someU.S.meatproducersaremissingopportunitiestodirectlyexporttoChinafollowingtheeffectsofASF.Meattradetrendsandmarketdynamicscontinuetoshift.UncertaintygrowsaschangesinmeattradedevelopundertradewarsandtheglobalimpactofASF;newtradepartnersanddifferenttypesofproteins(buffalomeat)arenowindiscussions.Meatavailabilityexpectedtocontinuegrowing.USDAestimatesfor2019and2020redmeatandpoultrypercapitaavailabilityat220.8mnand220.9mnlbs.,respectively(vs.219.5mnlbs.in2018).OurStocksStayingOWonTSN(TopPick),PPC&BRFS;EWonHRL,JBS&SAFMandUWonMRFG.INDUSTRYUPDATEAmericasAgribusinessNEUTRALUnchangedAm[e-mail],[e-mail],MexicoBarclays|AmericasAgribusiness17June20192CONTENTSAMERICASAGRIBUSINESS..............................................................................3News...................................................................................................................................................................3Commoditytrends.........................................................................................................................................4Priceperformance..........................................................................................................................................5EGGSANDPOULTRY........................................................................................6Production&Capacity..................................................................................................................................6Pricing................................................................................................................................................................7Feed-PriceRatios.........................................................................................................................................10Trade...............................................................................................................................................................11REDMEAT.........................................................................................................12Production&Capacity...............................................................................................................................12Pricing.............................................................................................................................................................14Feed-PriceRatios.........................................................................................................................................16Trade...............................................................................................................................................................17AllpricesareinU.S.dollarsunlessotherwisenoted.PROTEINCATEGORYHIGHLIGHTSPoultryPoultryproductiongrowthremainspositiveforbroilersandweakerforturkey,whilemostoftheturkeyproductionac