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Disclaimer&Disclosures:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit…Ukraine’seconomyismostexposedtoclimateriskstoitsagribusinessMULTI-ASSETGLOBALJuly2018By:AshimPaun,LucyActon,PaulBloxham,JamesPomeroy,AlexandreFalcaoandWai-ShinChan1MULTI-ASSET●GLOBALJuly2018THISCONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THEPRC)(EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAO)Didyouknow?TheUnitedNationsexpectstheglobalpopulationtocontinuetoincreasefortherestofthiscentury,whichwillexacerbatepressuresonagriculturalsystemsandglobalpercapitawateravailability,inourview.Between2030and2050,theWorldHealthOrganisation(WHO)expects250,000additionaldeathsperyearduetoclimatechange.AkeypillaroftheParisAgreement,adoptedinDecember2015andratifiedin2016,capturestheabilitytoadapttotheadverseimpactsofclimatechange…inamannerthatdoesnotthreatenfoodproduction.Agriculturerepresents2%ofGDP(average2014-2016)indevelopedmarkets(DM),7%inemergingmarkets(EM)and8%infrontiermarkets(FM).KenyaisthecountryinoursamplewiththehighestshareofagricultureinGDP(average2014to2016),of33.1%.InmanyAfricancountriesonecommodityaccountsforoverhalfofthatcountry'sexportincome.Theaverageshareofagricultureinemploymentis3%inDM,16%inEMand17%inFM(average2014-2016).Coted’Ivoirehasthehighestshareofemploymentinagricultureofallsamplecountries(49.8%).Hightemperaturesaredisruptive.Forexample,thesummerof2011intheUS,thehottestonrecordsince1955,causeddroughtandfallingcornyieldsintheMidwest,thecountry’smaincorn-producingregion.Asaresult,cornproductionforecastswerereducedby27.4mtonnesonaverage–equaltoc8%ofUSproductionandalevelgreaterthantheoutputfromtheworld’ssecondbiggestcornexporteratthetime,Argentina.Chinaisthetopproduceroffiveofthe15agro-commoditiesinoursample(rice,wheat,rapeseedoil,seedcotton,soybeanoil),andatopfiveproducerfor10ofthe15agro-commodities.In2014,ZhengGuoguang,headoftheChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,estimatedthat“inrecentyears,extremeweathersuchasfloods,droughts,rainstorms,andlowtemperatureshavecausedaveragegrainlossesof50bnkgayearinChina,withdroughtcausingthegreatestharm.”Thisisequivalenttoapproximately10%ofChina’sannualgrainoutput.AccordingtotheFood&AgricultureOrganisation(FAO),between2005and2014floodscaused37%ofcumulativeproductionlossesincropsandlivestock–cUSD34bn–withlossesfromdroughtsatcUSD17bnandfromotherclimatologicaldisasters(extremetemperatures,stormsandwildfires)atcUSD21.5bn.Inthisreport,webuildonourclimatechangevulnerabilityworkfirstpublishedinFragilePlanet–Scoringclimaterisksaroundtheworld,March2018,todevelopananalysisofcorrespondingriskstoagriculturearoundtheworld.Wecovercountriesfromdeveloped,emergingandfrontiermarketsandconsiderhowclimatefactorsposeriskstoindividualagro-commodities,tocommoditymarketsandtonationaleconomies.MULTI-ASSET●GLOBALJuly20182Summary-Commodities:Fromclimateriskstoagriculture3Engagementchecklist8Fragilecommodities9Whereareagro-commoditiesgrown?9Combiningclimatevulnerabilitywithcommodityproduction10Nationalclimatevulnerability11Fragilemarkets14Supply-demanddynamicsandpricespikes15Fragileeconomies19Theeconomicandpoliticalsignificanceoffoodcommodities20MixedimpactsacrossEMeconomies21Howwescoreandrankforclimatevulnerability24Measuringphysicalimpacts24Measuringandscoringforpotentialtorespondtoclimatechange27Overallnationalclimatevulnerabilityriskstoagriculture30Feedtheworld–finalthoughts32Digitalfarminginthecontextofclimaterisk34Buildingresilience35References36Appendix37Disclosureappendix43Disclaimer45WewouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionsofAbhishekKumarandPayalNegi,Associates,Bangalore,tothisresearchreport.MrKumarandMsNegiareemployedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andarenotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsContents3MULTI-ASSET●GLOBALJuly2018Commodities:FromclimateriskstoagricultureClimatechangecausesrisingtemperatures.Itcanalsoalterwatercyclesandexacerbateextremeweatherevents.Itresultsinhigherriskstofoodandwatersystems,populations,energyandtheglobaleconomy.Allcountriesarebeingimpactedbutsomearefacingmuchmoreacutechallengesthanothers.Wearereturningtoathemewehaveaddressedbefore:identifying,scoringandrankingthecountriesthataremostexposedtoclimatechangerisks(FragilePlanet–Scoringclimaterisksaroundtheworld,March2018).Thistime,wearelookingspecificallyattherisksthatclimatechangeposestoagriculturalcommodities–andbeyondthattoeconomicperformance.Agriculturecontributes4.6%ofglobalGDPandprovidesworkto27%ofthelabourforce(2016figures).Chart1showsfoodpricesclimbing46%innominaltermssince1990(to2018)whileagriculturalproductionvolumeshaveincreasedby76%(to2016).Howev