瑞信美股农业行业美国农业科学诺亚化学的弧线拥挤的空间2018103139页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.31October2018Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchFertilizersAgriculturalSciencesSectorQUARTERLYResea[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail]@credit-suisse.comTheNoah'sArcofChemicals:CrowdedSpace■InvestorsStillHidinginAgonSafeHavenPerception:Aghascertainlysurpassedourinitialexpectationsin'18.Theconfluenceofprojectdelays/failures,risingproductioncosts(N&P),Chinesetariffs/Iransanctionsandenergyshortagesinthecontextofhealthyinputdemandcontinuestopushmacronutrientpriceshigher.Wecanconfidentlyarguefertilizersarethemostcrowdedindustrieswithinthechemscomplex,withsomeinvestorsreservingconcernsinCPC/seedvs.bullishferts.Thebulls'argumentpresidesonthebeliefest'swillcontinuetodrifthigher,atrendwhichweultimatelyagreewithin4QunderscoredbyourassumptionNTRandMOSwillincrease'18guidance,butwestillseemoderationin'19.Uncertaintyislikelytopersist,whilematerialrisksremain,butinvestorswillnotsurrendertheiroptimismuntiloutlookschangematerially.Ontheagmacrooutlook,weretainourneutralviewandreiterateourL-Shapedrecoveryviewforthe3rdyrinarow,asgrain/oilseedproductionshouldmeethealthydemand.■AgMacroOK,ButRegionDependent–FX/TariffstoWeigh:Weviewthebroaderagmacroasregiondependent,w/stabletohealthyoutlooksintheAmericas,modestlyoffsetbysluggishoutlooksinEurope,SEAsiaandCentralAsia.Australiacontinuestobeproblematicduetoadrought.InvestorsappeartobecognizantofLatamFXconcerns,butwe'dstressourprimaryconcernnowlieswiththeINR,IDR,MYRandRMB;FXfearsaremoreprevalentinCPCvs.fertilizers.InadditiontoAsianFX,westressthatweakpalmoilfundamentalsinSEAsiaandconcernre:India'ssugarproductionmayweighondemand(inadditiontoAustralia'sdrought).■DespiteChinaTariffConcern,USFundamentalsSound–ThankSeed:Yieldscontinuetosurprisetotheupside,especiallyintheUS/Brazil(soy),atestamenttohowwellnewhybrids/varietiesareperforming(athemewefeelisunder-appreciated).Weexpectproductiontokeeppacew/demandintheinterim,keepingpricesatlowerlevels,thoughwestressrevenueperacreisstillrelativelyhealthy.Tariffswilllikelystillweighonupsideaswell,butthereisanemergingcornoptionality.Thepotentialimplementationofyear-roundE15intheUSandofE10inChinacouldpresentmeaningfulopportunitiesforglobalcorndemandandpricesinfutureyears.■FavorCPC/Seedvs.Ferts;BeCarefulinN&P,KStableforNow:WefavorCPC/seedexposurevs.fertsduetoelevatedexpectations,butconcedesupplyriskisnowa'19issue.WhileNisstable,we'dflag:(i.)anychangeinIraniansanctions,(ii.)lowerEuro/SEAgas,and(iii.)bettergasavailabilityinEE,CentralAsiaand/orT&Trepresentdownsiderisks.InP,higherexportavailabilityfromMENAisnowa'19issue,w/someoffsetfromChina.Kisfaringbetter,asuncertaintyaroundEuroChempersists.■OurUpdatedTP's/Est'sforOurAgCoverage:MOS('18EPS$1.85TP$29),NTR('18EPS$2.75,TP$54),CF('18CSe$1.75,TP$47).31October2018AgriculturalSciencesSector2TableofcontentsGlobalAgMarketUpdates4GlobalMarketSummary..........................................................................................4USHarvestWellUnderway......................................................................................5OtherGlobalDataPoints.........................................................................................5GlobalNitrogenOverview7GlobalNitrogenPriceOutlook................................................................................10KeyNitrogenInputPrices......................................................................................12NitrogenPricePerformance...................................................................................12GlobalPotashOverview14GlobalPotashPriceOutlook..................................................................................15GlobalPotashMarketOutlook...............................................................................17PotashPricePerformance.....................................................................................19GlobalPhosphatesOverview20GlobalPhosphatesPriceOutlook..........................................................................22PhosphatesPricePerformance.............................................................................23GlobalSoftCommodityOverview24GlobalFXOverview25RecommendedReading27CSGlobalAgricultureTeam28NutrienLtd.(NTR)29CFIndustriesHoldingInc.(CF)31MosaicCo.(MOS)3331October2018AgriculturalSciencesSector3Figure1:SummaryofChangestoEstimatesEPSEstimatesP