搜索
ProjectedU.S.2016/17cornfood,seed,andindustrialuse(FSI)israised50millionbushelsthismonthto6,845million,reflectingcontinuingstrongethanolproductiondrivenlargelybyrobustexportstoBrazil.Totaluseisunchangedfromlastmonth,reflectinganoffsetting50-million-bushelreductioninprojectedfeedandresidualusebasedongreatercornusedtoproduceethanol,expectedgreatersorghumfeeding,andindicateddisappearanceduring2015/16.Globalcoarsegrainproductionin2016/17isforecastup12.7milliontonsthismonthtoarecord1,341.7million.ThemajorcontributorstotheincreaseareBrazil,SouthAfrica,India,andArgentinaforcornandAustraliaforbarley.Brazilcornproductionisraised5.0milliontonsto91.5million,reflectinghigherprojectionsforbothfirst-andsecond-cropcorn.ExportprospectsforBrazilian,Argentine,andSouthAfricancornarereviseduptoreflectchangesinsuppliesandcompetitiveness.U.ScornexportsareunchangedthismonthasasharpincreaseincornsuppliesinbothBrazilandArgentinaisexpectedtointensifycompetitionfacingU.S.exportsduringthelatterpartof2016/17.1.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.U.S.cornexports2012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17Source:USDA,U.S.CensusBureau,February2017GrainInspections..Mil.metrictonsFeedOutlookTomCapeharttcapehart@ers.usda.govOlgaLiefertoliefert@ers.usda.govU.S.CornFood,Seed,andIndustrialUseRaisedonImprovedEthanolProspectsEconomicResearchServiceSituationandOutlookFDS-17cMarch13,2017ThenextreleaseisApril13,2017.--------------ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.FeedandResidualUseLoweredProjectedU.S.2016/17feedandresidualuseforthefourfeedgrains(corn,sorghum,barley,andoats)andwheatislowered0.9millionmetrictonsthismonthto155.4million,onaSeptember-Augustmarketingyearbasis.Cornfeedandresidualislowered1.3milliontonsfromlastmonth’sforecast,whilesorghumandoatsprojectionsarehigher.For2015/16,slightchangesweremadeinfeedandresidualprojectionsbasedlargelyonrevisionstocalendaryear2016inUSDA’sNationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)GrainCrushingsandCo-ProductsProduction2016Summaryreport.Thismonth’sprojectionis16.8milliontonshigherthanfeedandresidualof138.6milliontonsin2015/16.GrainConsumingAnimalUnitsProjectedHigherSlightchangesinU.S.poultryinventoryprojectionsraisegrainconsuminganimalunits(GCAU)thismonth,resultingin2016/17projectedGCAUsof95.84millionunits,upfrom95.79millionlastmonthand1.7millionunitshigherthanthe2015/16estimateof94.1million.FeedandresidualuseperGCAUisprojectedat1.62tonsthismonth,downslightlyfromlastmonthand0.15tonshigherthan2015/16.02468101214161887/881990/9193/9496/9799/002002/0305/0608/0911/1214/15FeedandresidualExportsOtherfood,seed,andindustrialusesEthanolEndingstocksFigure 1Note:Marketingyears2015/16and2016/17areprojected.Source:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,WASDE.U.S.cornutilizationBillionbuDomesticOutlook2FeedOutlook/FDS-17c/March13,2017EconomicResearchService,USDACornforEthanolBoostsFood,Seed,andIndustrialUseCornusedtoproducefuelethanolisraised50millionbushelsto5,400millionthismonthonhigherusereflectedinNASS’sGrainCrushingsandCo-ProductsProductionreportandcontinuingstrongweeklyproductiondatafromtheEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA).WeeklyproductiondataindicateFebruaryethanolproductiononaperdaybasistobejustslightlybelowtherecordlevelhitduringJanuary.Inrecentmonths,exportstoBrazilhavebeenaboveexpectations.FortheSeptember-Januaryperiod,totalshipmentshavereached2.1millionliters,ofwhich0.8millionhavegonetoBrazil.TotalFSIisnowforecastat6,845millionbushels,up50millionbushelsfromlastmonth.0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.006/0708/092010/1112/1314/1516/17BillionbuFigure2U.S.cornfeedandresidualuseCorn1stQtrSources:USDA,EconomicResearchService,FeedGrainsDatabaseandUSDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,WASDE.020406080100120140Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.Jan.Feb.Mar.Apr.MayJun.JulyAug.U.S.fuelethanolexports2013/142014/152015/16Source:USDC,U.S.CensusBureau.1,000gal.Figure 33FeedOutlook/FDS-17c/March13,2017EconomicResearchService,USDAEstimatedethanolusefor2015/16wasraised17.6millionbushelsasaresultofrevisionsbyNASSpublishedintheGrainCrushingsandCo-ProductsProduction2016Summary.Inaddition,estimatedcornusedforsweetenersandstarchwaslowered6.2millionbushels.Asaresult,total2015/16FSIisraised11.4millionbushelsto6,646million,upfrom6,601in2014/15.Withstocksandtradeknown,totaluseisunchangedasthehigherFSIisoffsetbylowerfeedandresidualuse.For2016/17,feedandresidualuseislowered50millionbushelsto5,550millionasaresultofgreatercornusedforethanol,highersorghumfeeding,andindicatedfeedandresidualuseduring2015/16.Withtheexportprojectionunchanged,totaldisappearanceisprojectedunchangedfromlastmonth’sprojectionat14,620millionbushels.1,0001,0501,1001,1501,2001,2501,3001,3501,4001,4501,5002014/15I2014/15II2014/15III2014/15IV2015/16I2015/16II2015/16III2015/16IV2016/17IMillionbuFigure4U.S.cornforethanolusebyquarterSource:USDA,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService,GrainsCrushingsandCo-ProductsProduction.123456789Jan.2000Jan.01Jan.02Jan.02Jan.03Jan.04Jan.05Jan.06Jan.07Jan.08Jan.09Jan.11Jan.12Jan.13Jan.14Jan.15Jan.16Jan.17Dol./buSources:USDA,Econ