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U.S.Censusdata,nowavailablethroughJanuary2017,indicatesaslowpaceofshipmentsfromCanada-inpartduetolowquality-resultsincutstoU.S.importsformostclassesofwheatincludingHardRedWinter,HardRedSpring,Durum,andWhiteWheat.Afteranaggregate10-million-bushel(bu)reduction,U.S.allwheatimportsfor2016/17areprojectedat115millionbu.Thestill-strongU.S.dollarandamplewheatsuppliesinalmostallmajorwheat-exportingcountriesanchorU.S.exportsatthecurrentprojection,unchangedfromlastmonth.Higherprojected2016/17wheatproductionforAustraliaandArgentina,twomajorU.S.tradecompetitors,furtherexpandstherecord-highworldwheatsupplies.020406080100120140160180200MillionbushelsFigure1:U.S.wheatimportsbyclass1SoftRedWinterHardRedSpringWhiteWheatDurumHardRedWinter12016/17importsareprojected.Source:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,WASDE.WheatOutlookJenniferBondjkbond@ers.usda.govOlgaLiefertoliefert@ers.usda.govU.S.importsloweredby10millionbushelsonslowpaceofCanadianshipmentsEconomicResearchServiceSituationandOutlookWHS-17cMarch13,2017WheatChartGallerywillbeupdatedonMarch13,2017.ThenextreleaseisApril13,2017.--------------ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.Features:U.S.WheatLongTermProjectionsSummarywithErikO’DonoghueNon-ConvergenceinHardRedWinterWheatFuturesMarketswithLinwoodHoffman2016/17ImportsLowered,FewBalanceSheetUpdatesMinimalchangestotheallwheatbalancesheetaremadethismonth.Keymarketreports,dueoutattheendofMarch,willprovidedetailsonthird-quarterstocksandimplieddomesticuse,includingseeduseassociatedwithplantingthe2017/18wheatcrop.U.S.BureauofCensustradedataindicateaslowerpaceofimportsthanpreviouslyprojected,resultingina10millionbusheltrimtothe2016/17allwheatimportfigure,withcutsdistributedacrossallclassesexceptSoftRedWinterwheat.MaintainedStrongPaceofExportsSupportsCurrentProjectionWithanothermonthoftradedataavailable,thepatternofconsistentlystrongerwheatexportsin2016/17,isaffirmed.Thepaceofexportsalescontinuestosupportthecurrent2016/17projectionof1,025millionbushels(bu).USDA-EconomicResearchServiceestimatesofmonthlywheatgrainandproductexportsthroughJanuaryare,onaverage,nearly18millionbu(grainequivalent)largerthanduringthesameperiodinthepreviousyear.SalesbetweenSeptemberandJanuaryhavebeenparticularlystrongandareupnearly80millionbu(grainequivalent)overthesame5-monthperiodinthepreviousmarketingyear.Notably,U.S.wheatexportssurgeddespiteDecemberclosuresandongoingdelaysatinlandandcoastalportsinthePacificNorthwest(PNW).Closureswereduetoheavyrainsandsevereseaconditionswhichhaveincludedlargeamountsofdebrisinthewaterandwavesofsignificantheight.Further,BNSFRailwayreportsthatblizzardsandavalanchesinFebruarydisruptedgrainrailtransportationfromtheMidwesttothePNW.Inmid-December,theU.S.ArmyCorpofEngineersbegana14-weeklongclosureoftheColumbia-SnakeRiverSystemtomakerepairstothenavigationallocksthatsupportasignificantvolumeofcommercialrivertraffic.ThePacificNorthwestWaterwaysAssociationstates“theColumbiaSnakeRiverSystemisthenumberoneU.S.wheatexportgateway,moving50percentofthenation’swheatforexporttooverseasmarkets.”Inlightoftheimportanceofthissystemandrelatedclosures,thestrongpaceofU.S.wheatexportsisevenmoreremarkableandindicativeofpreparationsmadebythegrainhandlingindustryinadvanceoftheextendedriverclosure.However,portgridlockhasrecentlybeenreportedatPNWportswithupto60vesselsawaitingloadings.CongestionatPNWportsisencouragingtheuseofalternativeports,especiallythoselocatedintheGulfRegion.Forexample,fortheweekendingFebruary23,2017,allGulfportsmovedmorethan2.3timesthevolumeofwheatshippedviathePacificRegion.Forthesameweek1yearprior,totalwheatshipmentsfromthePacificRegionweremorethan60percentgreaterthantotalloadingsfromallGulfports.U.S.wheatexportsfor2016/17,inaggregate,wereunchangedthismonth.However,thepaceofshipments,asindicatedbyU.S.CensusBureautradedata,providesupportforfourclassshifts.HardRedSpring(HRS)israised5millionbuonstrengthofexportsprimarilyleavingoutofGulfPorts.SRWexportsarealsoraised5millionto90million,thougharestillwell-belowthe5-yearaverageexportvolumeof180millionbu.Whitewheat(WW)exportsarelowered5millionbushelsbasedontheobservedpaceofexportstodatethathavebeenimpactedbyslowportloadingsoutofthePNW.Durumexportsarealsolowered5millionbuto20million.Theslowedpaceofdurumexportsisattributedtoqualityconcernsandweather-relatedtransportationchallengesthathaveaffectedmovementsfromdurum-producingregionsinNorthernPlains.DomesticOutlook2WheatOutlook/WHS-17c/March13,2017EconomicResearchService,USDAAllWheatEndingStocksLowered,RemainHighestSince1985/86Afteraccountingforreducedprojectedimports,allwheatendingstocksarereducedby10millionbushels(bu)to1,130millionbu.Evenwiththecut,2016/17endingstocksare154millionbuhigherthanin2015/16andremainthehighestsince1985/86.Byclass,reducedimportsandshiftingexportshaveendingstocksimplications.Specifically,HRWendingstocksarereducedby1millionbu,HRSisreducedby8million,SRWisreducedby5million,WWisraised4millionanddurumendingstocksareunchanged.Thecurrentallwheatstocks-to-useratioat0.50isvirtuallyidenticaltolastyear’sfigure,andcomparest