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Increasesin2018RedMeatandPoultryPerCapitaDisappearanceLargelyDuetoStrongProductionForecastsNextYearPositivechangesin2018percapitabeef,pork,andpoultrydisappearanceareexpectedtobedrivenlargelybyproductionincreases,butalsobychangesintrade.Lambandmuttonpercapitadisappearanceisexpectedtodecline1.7percent,however,duetoasmalldeclineinproductionandasmallincreaseinexports.Forbeef,the1.3-percentincreaseinpercapitadisappearanceto57.9poundsistheresultofa2.2-percentincreaseinthe2018productionforecast,togetherwithstrongerbeefimports(2.9percentlargerthanthe2017forecast)anda1.9-percentincreaseinbeefexports.The1.7-percentchangeintheporkpercapitain2018—to50.9pounds,thelargestpercapitadisappearancesince2004—isexpectedeventhoughexportsareforecasttoincrease3.8percentnextyear.Thecurrentporkindustryexpansion,withproductionnextyearexpectedtoincrease3.5percent,drivestheexpectedincreaseinpercapitaporkdisappearance.Thebroilerpercapitadisappearanceincrease—1.3percentto91.3pounds—isduetoanticipatedproductiongrowthof1.9percentplusasmallincreaseinexports(+0.8percent,yearoveryear).Theturkeypercapitain2018isexpectedtoincrease1.1percentto17pounds.Theincreasederivesfromlargerproduction—1.9percentoverthe2017turkeyproductionforecast.Theincreaseinturkeypercapitaisanticipatedeventhoughturkeyexportsareexpectedtoincrease7.8percentin2018.Thestrongincreasederivesfromthecontinuedrecoveryofexports,afterthesharpdeclinein2015duetodiseaseproblems.-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.52Beef+vealPorkLamb+MuttonBroilersTurkey2018Percapitaconsumptionofredmeatsandpoutry,retailbasis:percentchangefromayearearlier1.32%2.35%-1.67%1.31%1.12%%Source:EconomicResearchService,U.S.Dept.ofAgriculture.Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlookMildredHaleymhaley@ers.usda.govKeithlyJoneskjones@ers.usda.govEconomicResearchServiceSituationandOutlookLDP-M-277July18,2017ContentsCattle/BeefDairyPork/HogsLamb/MuttonPoultryContactsandLinksTablesRedMeatandPoultryDairyForecastWebSitesAnimalProductionandMarketingIssuesCattleDairyHogsPoultryandEggsWASDE-----------------------------TableswillbereleasedonJuly27,2017ThenextOutlookReportreleaseisAugust16,2017-----------------------------ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.Cattle/Beef:Fourth-quartercommercialbeefproductionisexpectedtobe7.0billionpounds,andbeefproductionfortheyearisrevisedupwardslightlyto26.5billionpounds,or5percentabovelastyear.Pricesfor1,100-1,300poundChoicesteersareexpectedtoaverage$117-$121perhundredweight(cwt)forthethirdquarterand$113-$121percwtforthefourthquarter.ForecastsforU.S.beefimportsin2017and2018arerevisedupwardby30millionand45millionpounds,respectively.U.S.beefexportsareforecasthigherby10millionpoundsin2017andup35millionpoundsin2018.Dairy:Milkproductionforecastshavebeenreducedfromlastmonth’sforecasts,asexpectationsforgrowthinmilkpercowarelower,primarilyduetorelativelylowyield-growthinrecentmonths.Additionally,yieldsoverthenextseveralmonthsmaybeaffectedbyrecentextremeheatinsomewesternareas.Withtherecentincreaseinexportsandcompetitivepricesforcheese,expectationsforexportsareincreasedoverlastmonth.Withlowerexpectationsfordomesticdemandandrecentdeclinesincheeseprices,milkpriceforecastshavebeenloweredfromlastmonth’sforecasts.The2017all-milkpriceforecastis$17.65-$17.95percwt,areductionfrom$17.80-$18.20forecastlastmonth.The2018all-milkpriceforecastis$18.00-$19.00percwt,areductionfrom$18.10-$19.10forecastlastmonth.Pork/Hogs:HogandpiginventoriesreportedintheJuneQuarterlyHogsandPigsreportsuggestporkproductionincreasesforthebalanceof2017andinto2018.Despitelargerhogsupplies,strongdemandforpork—bothdomesticandforeign—isexpectedtokeephogpricesyear-over-yearhigherinthesecondhalfof2017andthroughthefirstquarterof2018.Lamb/Mutton:Second-quarterpricesaveraged$153.46percwt,increasingnearly$15abovethefirst-quarterlevels.Thinmarketscontinuetoinfluencepricevariability,causinglargeswingsinmonthlyChoiceslaughterlambpricesatSanAngelo.Pricesareexpectedtoweakenfortherestoftheyearasaresultofexpectedlowerdemand.Poultry:Forecastbroilerproductionwasincreasedslightlyforthesecondquarter,andthepriceforecastwasincreasedforthethirdquarter.Eggproductionhasremainedabovelastyearasexpected,andnoforecastsforeggswererevised.Duetotheslowdowninturkeypoultplacements,coupledwithsustainedlowpricesforwholebirdsandmostcuts,theforecastfor2017turkeyproductionwasreducedby30millionpoundsto6.062billionpounds.Inaddition,the2018forecastwasreducedby75millionpoundsto6.180billionpounds.2Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook/LDP-M-277/July18,2017EconomicResearchService,USDACattle/BeefCattleAvailableforSlaughterGiveMeatpackersOptionsCommercialbeefproductionfor2017isrevisedupwardslightlyto26.5billionpounds,duetogreaterthanexpectedcommercialslaughterinthesecondquarterandhigheranticipatedcommercialslaughterinthethirdandfourthquarters.Aspackershavebidhigherforfedcattleforslaughterinthefirstandsecondquartersof2017,feedlotsexperiencedpositivereturnsfrommarketingcalvesboughtatrelativelylowpricesduringthesecondhalfof2016.Thepriceforfeedersteersweighing750-800poundssoldattheOklahomaCityNationalStockyar