美国农业部美股农业行业根据甜菜种植状况20192020年美国的制糖产量会略高2019061744页

USDA,EconomicResearchServiceSugarandSweetenersOutlookMichaelMcConnell,coordinatorDavidOlson,contributorU.S.SugarProductionSlightlyHigherfor2019/20BasedonSugarbeetPlantingPaceTheJuneWorldAgriculturalSupplyandDemandEstimates(WASDE)raisedU.S.sugarproductionfor2019/20,ashigherbeetsugarproductionoutweighedlowercanesugarexpectations.Beetsugarproductionisalsoraisedfor2018/19duetohigherearly-seasonproductionfromhigherexpectedyieldsfromthesugarbeet2019/20crop.Nochangesweremadetotheforecastuseforeither2018/19or2019/20.Mexicosugarproductionisraisedforboth2018/19and2019/20.ComingintothefinalweeksoftheMexicosugarcaneharvestcampaign,the2018/19seasonisonpacetobewellaheadofrecentyear’stotals.WithlimitedgrowthindomesticmarketsandconstraintsonexportstotheUnitedStates,shipmentstotheglobalmarketareexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyfromrecentyearstobringstocklevelsinlinewithhistoricalaverages.IntheForeignAgriculturalService’s(FAS)initialprojectionsforglobalsugarmarketsin2019/20,worldproductionandconsumptionareexpectedtoincreaseatasteadyrate.Globalsuppliesarestillrelativelylargein2018/19fromtherecordproductionyearof2017/18.Thisstillweighsontheglobalmarket,withmajorsugar-producingandtradingcountriescontinuingtorespondtothesemarketconditions.Lookingforwardto2019/20,however,globalsugarmarketsareexpectedtoreturntomorestableconditions.1SugarandSweetenersOutlook,SSS-M-370,June17,2019ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.NextreleaseisJuly17,2019SSS-M-370|June17,20192SugarandSweetenersOutlook,SSS-M-370,June17,2019USDA,EconomicResearchServiceU.S.DomesticOutlookBeetSugarProductionRaisedforBoth2018/19and2019/20BasedonHigherForecastYieldofCurrentCropSugarproductionintheUnitedStatesfor2019/20isprojectedtototal9.138millionshorttons,rawvalue(STRV).Thisisa24,000-STRVincreasefromMay’sinitialprojectionandwouldbea2.1-percentincreasefrom2018/19estimates,ifrealized.Beetsugarproductionisprojectedtototal5.154millionSTRVfor2019/20—a40,000STRVincreasefromthepreviousmonthduetoahighersugarbeetyieldthanpreviouslyexpected.Beetsugarproductionfor2018/19isalsoraisedfromtheMayestimate,totaling4.920millionSTRV—or10,000STRVhigher.Table1:U.S.sugar:supplyanduse,byfiscalyear(Oct./Sept.),June2019Items2019/202019/20(forecast)(forecast)Beginningstocks1,8762,0081,5261,7021,8221,384Totalproduction9,2938,9489,1388,4308,1178,290Beetsugar5,2794,9205,1544,7894,4634,675Canesugar4,0144,0283,9853,6413,6543,615Florida1,9832,00520511,7991,8191,861Louisiana1,8621,8751,8001,6891,7011,633Texas169148134153134121Hawaii000000Totalimports3,2772,8753,2192,9732,6082,920Tariff-ratequotaimports1,6631,5381,3811,5091,3951,253Otherprogramimports326350350296318318Non-programimports1,2879871,4881,1688951,350Mexico1,2238971,4181,1108131,286High-duty649070588264Totalsupply14,44513,83113,88313,10512,54712,594Totalexports17035351543232Miscellaneous82007500Deliveriesfordomesticuse12,18512,27012,32011,05411,13111,177Transfertosugar-containingproductsforexportsunderre-exportprogram110120120100109109Transfertopolyhydricalcohol,feed,otheralcohol282525252323CommodityCreditCorporation(CCC)saleforethanol,other000000Deliveriesfordomesticfoodandbeverageuse12,04812,12512,17510,93011,00011,045Totaluse12,43812,30512,35511,28311,16311,208Endingstocks2,0081,5261,5281,8221,3841,386Private2,0081,5261,5281,8221,3841,386CommodityCreditCorporation(CCC)000000Stocks-to-useratio16.1412.4012.3716.1412.4012.37Source:USDA,EconomicResearchService,SugarandSweetenerOutlook.2018/19(estimate)2017/181,000Shorttons,rawvalue1,000Metrictons,rawvalue2017/182018/19(estimate)Table2:Beetsugarproductionprojectioncalculation,2018/19and2019/202014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192018/192019/202019/20MayJuneMayJuneSugarbeetproduction(1,000shorttons)1/31,28535,37136,88135,32533,14533,14533,55633,916Sugarbeetshrink2/5.4%6.5%8.3%7.3%5.0%5.0%6.5%6.5%Sugarbeetsliced(1,000shorttons)29,59533,06633,83432,74231,48831,48831,37531,712Sugarextractionratefromslice14.6%14.6%13.7%15.2%14.8%14.8%14.6%14.6%Sugarfrombeetsslice(1,000STRV)4,3254,8204,6434,9704,6634,6634,5754,624Sugarfrommolasses(1,000STRV)2/341380352368368368368368Crop-yearsugarproduction(1,000STRV)3/4,6675,2014,9955,3385,0315,0314,9434,992August-Septembersugarproduction(1,000STRV)461688606715655655502511August-Septembersugarproductionforecast(1,000STRV)688606715655502511633633Sugarfromimportedbeets(1,000STRV)4/--------33334040Fiscalyearsugarproduction(1,000STRV)4,8935,1195,1035,2794,9104,9205,1145,154Notes:1/USDA,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService.2/ProjectionsbasedonprocessorforecastspublishedbyUSDA,FarmServiceAgency.3/August-Julybasis.4/Sugarfromimportedbeetssplitoutforprojectionsonly,includedintotaloncefullcrop-yearsliceisrecorded.Theyareincorporatedintototalproductioninhistoricaldata.Source:USDA,EconomicResearchServiceandWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.ChallengingplantingconditionshavebeenpersistentthroughouttheEasternsugarbeet-growingStates,inparticularMinnesota,NorthDakota,andMichigan.TotalplantingintheUnitedStateslaggedbehindthepreviousyear’spaceandthe5-yearaveragepacefornearlytheentir