搜索
WheatOutlookJenniferK.BondOlgaLiefert2019/20WheatProduction,FeedandResidualLifted,ExportsContinuetoFaceHeadwindsThismonth’sUSDA,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsServiceCropProductionreportprovidedrevisedwinterwheatanddesertdurumproductionfor2019/20.Onnet,winterwheatisraised6millionbushelsonimprovedyields.Productiongainshelptooffsettheeffectsoflowercarryinstemmingfromincreasedback-yearexportsandleadingtoreducedtotalsuppliesmonth-to-month.Newcropall-wheatfeedandresidualisincreasedby50millionbushelsonasharpreductionincornproductionandfeeding(fig.1).Prospectsfor2019/20exportsarenotimprovedfromthepreviousmonthandremainat900millionbushels.In2019/20,recoveryinEuropeanUnion(EU)andAustraliaproductionandexportablesuppliescreatesformidablecompetitionforU.S.wheatinglobalmarkets.Onexpectationsforlargercrops,RussiaandUkraineexportsarebothraisedamilliontonsthismonthandfurtherinhibitgrowthinU.S.exportsin2019/20.05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000EndingstocksFeedandresidualExportsFoodSeedSource:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard,WASDE.Figure1:BothnewandoldcropU.S.wheatutilizationareraisedasendingstockstightenMil.buEconomicResearchService|SituationandOutlookReportNextreleaseisJuly15,2019WHS-19f|June13,2019Inthisreport:-DomesticOutlook-InternationalOutlookDomesticOutlookDomesticChangesataGlance:•U.S.CensusBureautradedatathroughAprilindicateabriskpaceofoldcropshipmentsinthefourthquarterandsupporta25-million-bushelincreaseinthe2018/19exports.oEstimatedtotalexportsforthefourthquarterorthe2018/19marketingyearexceededexpectationsastheU.S.wasabletocapitalizeonreducedexportablesuppliesfromtheBlackSearegionandmorecompetitiveexportprices.•Largerbackyearexportsservetolower2018/19endingstocksandcarryinforthe2019/20marketingyear.Reducedcarryinfor2019/20isoffsetslightlygrowthinprojectedwheatproduction.•Winterwheatproductionfor2019/20israised6millionbushelsthismonthto1,274.5milliononincreasedyields.oUSDA,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)liftedhardredwinter(HRW)wheatproductionbymorethan14millionbushelsfromthepreviousforecast,morethanoffsetinglowerprojectedproductionforsoftredwinter(SRW),down6.3million,andwhitewinterwheat(down1.8million).•OtherspringwheatproductionisunchangedfromtheMayforecastandwillbere-evaluatedfollowingtheendofJunereleaseoftheAcreagereport.•Forecastdurumproductionfor2019/20iscutslightly,down194,000bushelsfromthepreviousprojectiononreduceddesertdurumproductionreportedbyNASSforArizona.•Carryinisreducedbymorethanproductionisincreased,resultinginanet19.2millionbushelreductioninsupplies,relativetotheMayprojection.•Totaluseforthenewmarketingyearisraised50millionbushelsthismonthonasignificantexpansionofprojectedfeedandresidualuse.oWheatfeedandresidualusefor2019/20israisedonsharpdeclinesforbothcornproductionandcornfeedandresidual,whichinturnsupportsa50-centincreaseintheforecastseasonaveragecornprice.•Thetighterwheatbalancesheetfor2019/20andasignificantincreaseinthecornpricecombinetolifttheall-wheatseasonaveragefarmpriceby40centsthismonthto$5.10perbushel.2WheatOutlook,WHS-19f,June13,2019USDA,EconomicResearchServiceTable1-U.S.wheatsupplyandutilizationataglance,2018/19and2019/20Balancesheetitem2018/19June2019/20May2019/20JuneChangefrompreviousmonthCommentsSupply,totalMillionbushelsMay-JuneMarketingYear(MY)Beginningstocks1,098.91,126.81,101.8-25.0Carryinfrom2018/19isloweronincreasedoldcropexports.Production1,884.51,896.91,902.75.8Newcropproductionisraised6millionbushelsonhigherHardRedWinterwheatproductionthatisnotoffsetbycutstoSoftRedWinterandWinterWhitewheatproductionImports140.0140.0140.00.0Supply,total3,123.33,163.73,144.5-19.2Reducedcarryinmorethanoffsetsproductiongains,resultinginlowertotalsupplyin2019/20.DemandMillionbushelsFood960.0965.0965.00.0Seed61.568.068.00.0Feedandresidual50.090.0140.050.0Feedandresidualusefor2019/20israised50millionbushelsonasizablecuttocornproductionandassociatedreductionincornfeeding.Domestic,total1,071.51,123.01,173.050.0Domesticuseisraised50millionbushelsonexpandedfeedandresidualuse.Exports950.0900.0900.00.0Use,total2,021.52,023.02,073.050.0Totaluseislifted50millionbushelsonexpandeddomesticutilization.Endingstocks1,101.81,140.71,071.5-69.2Reducedsuppliesandincreaseddomesticusecombinetotightenthebalancesheet.Atighterall-wheatbalancesheetsupportsamonth-to-monthincreaseintheall-wheatprice,raised40centsthismonthto$5.10perbushel.Source:USDA,WorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardSupplyandDemandEstimates.3WheatOutlook,WHS-19f,June13,2019USDA,EconomicResearchService2019WinterWheatProductionNudgedHigheronImprovedProspectsforHardRedWinterWheatThismonth,USDA,NationalAgriculturalStatisticsService(NASS)releasedthesecondsurvey-basedwinterwheatproductionforecastforthe2019/20marketingyear.FarmerresponsescollectedbyNASSbetweenMay25andJune6informprojectionsofwinterwheatareaharvested,yields,andproduction-by-State.InNASS’JunereleaseoftheCropProductionreport,winterwheatyieldsfor2019areprojectedat50.5bushelsperacre,upfrom50.3bushelsestimatedinMayandcomparabletothe47.9bushelsperacrethatfarmersrealizedin2018.Winterwheaty