高盛高华中国农业从长计议国人饮食之变英文版20197143页

北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。证券研究报告|July18,2019|3:58AMHKT戴晔,CFA(分析师)执业证书编号:S1420517070001+86(21)[e-mail]北京高华证券有限责任公司中国农业从长计议国人饮食之变(摘要)在自然资源已被过渡挖掘，以及中国的农业生产成本上升到其他主要农业国家的两倍的情况下，中国需要通过更多技术创新带来的产量增长，和加大进口来平衡未来的食品供需。我们认为中国农业领域投资前景颇具吸引力：近期非洲猪瘟、气候因素以及去库存结束有望带动价格周期上行，从长期来看价格呈现结构性上升趋势。更值得着重关注的是，在中国农业转型之际，供应整合、饮食结构升级、高效新技术/新产品加大渗透等因素将在行业内创造相对更为强劲的增长机会。*全文翻译随后提供本报告仅供[e-mail]使用本报告仅供kol_yu_ghsl_cn使用Storyincharts5Investmentsummary6Pricingforecastsandkeysupply/demandbalance11Summaryofkeystocks12China’sagriculturesector:Amacroview,sustainedgrowthahead13ASFandglobalprotein:tighterforlonger24LTdietarypatternintransition:Notmore,butbetter34Chinesesupply:Transformationneeded43Globalsupplyresponses:FeedingChina’srisingimports57Pricingandmarginoutlook:Strongmarginoutlookforanimalprotein,bestriskrewardincorn76Chinasub-sector1:Livehogbreedingandcultivation88Chinasub-sector2:Feed103Chinasub-sector3:Animalhealth108Chinasub-sector4:Seeds114Stockpicks:Chinaandglobal119DisclosureAppendix14018July20192GoldmanSachsChinaAgricultureTableofContentsListofcontributingauthorsTrinaChen|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsAsiaLLCBrianDai,CFA|[phone]|[e-mail]|BeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedAdamSamuelson|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCMichaelPeet|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdLucaCipiccia|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCLincolnKong,CFA|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsAsiaLLCTheodoraLeeJoseph,CFA|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsInternationalSophieCarran|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdJordanShimabuku|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCYuqingLi|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsAsiaLLCAnnabelHazlitt|[phone]|[e-mail]|GoldmanSachsInternational本报告仅供[e-mail]使用本报告仅供kol_yu_ghsl_cn使用3GoldmanSachsChinaAgriculture85%ofChinabeefconsumptiongrowthfrom2018tolongterm,40%ofwhichwouldneedtocomefromimports+4%growthinnon-porkmeatChinesedemandfromChinain1Q19,whileporkapparentdemanddeclinedby5%,onthebackofAfricanSwineFever(ASF)3.5xChina’suseofnitrogen-basedfertilizerperhectareoflandvs.globalaverage0-2.5%negativeclimateimpactoncropyieldoveradecade,reportedbyIPCC150xfasterseedingoperationsusingdrone-basedseedingversustraditionalmanualseedinginChina34-60%gapsbetweenglobalsupplyandChinademandmayemerge,withoutayieldrevolution,ifChineseconsumptionupgradesarereachedby2030,whilegloballandexpansionislikelytoremaindisciplined100%higherproductioncostsforChinesecornandsoybeanvs.USandBrazil60-100%pricehikesinglobalsoybeanandcornpricesin2007-08and2011-12,whensupplydeficitwas2-8%duetodroughtDEMANDGROWTHINCHINA11%CAGRformilk&milkproductimportsinthelastfewyears24%higherdailyconsumptioningrainequivalentterms,whenChinaupgradesitsanimalproteinconsumptiontothesamelevelasJapanandKoreaSUPPLYCONSTRAINTSANDOPPORTUNITIES45%percentageofChinaporkoutputcoulddeclinefromnormallevel,byendof2020,assumingASFcomesundercontrolin2H191.8xhigheryieldinsoybeaninChinavs.US30%morepotentialyieldgaincanbeachievedintheoryforLongping’shybridriceGLOBALSUPPLY,TRADE,ANDPRICES7-42%oftheagriculturesupplyaretradedgloballytoday,andcouldgrowby12-51%duetoincreasingimportsfromChinainthecomingyears31%oftheAmazonmaybeconvertedtoagricultureuseby2050,fromcurrent17%,iflandexpansioninBrazilgrowsatover1%ayear40%ofproductioninChinaislabour,whichgrew4xinthepastdecade,vs.3-5%labourcostsintheUSandBrazilSource:FAO,USDA,NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch本报告仅供[e-mail]使用本报告仅供kol_yu_ghsl_cn使用4GoldmanSachsChinaAgriculture10THINGSTHATMAYSURPRISEYOU1Chineseconsumersonaverageeathalfapigperyear(37kgs),8chickenseachyear,andhave1steak(200g/steakorequivalentbeef)and1cartonofmilkeverytwoweeks2Americanconsumersonaverageeat0.4pigperyear(30kgs),30chickenseachyear,andhave1steak(200g/steakorequivalentbeef)and1.5cartonsofmilkeverytwodays3TheaveragedailyfoodconsumptionofChineseconsumersrequires680gofgrainstoproducevs.1700gforaverageAmericanconsumers4While1kgofbeefhasthesamecalorificvalueas0.8kgofcorn,ittakes8-10kgoffeed(cornandsoybeanmeal)toproduce1kgofbeef51kgofpoultryconsumes2kgofgrainand3,000litresofwaterover35days,whereas1kgofbeeftakes365daystoproduceandconsumes4-10kgofgrainand16,000litresofwater6Abroilercangrowto4kgin56days,andapigletcangrowtoa11kghogin6months7AUSdailycowin1985couldproducearound6,000kgofmilkperyearandtodaycanproducearound10,000kgperyear8Foodwastefromproductiontoconsumptionaccountfor20%ofmeatproductioninNorthAsiaand40%ofcereal9Totalgrain-equivalentimportsintoChinain2018isequivalenttoimportingover50mnhectareor40%ofarablelandinChina10Wastewater(COD)dischargesduetosmall-scalepigfarmingcouldleadto12mntofunreportedpollutants,equivalentto110%ofthereportedCODemissionsinChinaSource:FAO,USDA,NBS,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch本报告仅供[e-mail]使用本报告仅供kol_yu_ghsl_cn使用S