并购目标企业选择及价值评估案例分析

华中科技大学硕士学位论文并购目标企业选择及价值评估案例分析姓名：杨志斌申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：夏新平20060610IIIAbstractWiththein-depthdevelopmentofChineselistedcompaniessub-ownedsharesreforms,peoplepaymoreattentiontotheintrinsicvalueoftheenterprise.AlotofMerger&AcquisitionM&Acasestookthevaluationascore.HowtodeterminetheappropriatepurchasingpricebyusingcorrectvaluationmethodsandmakeascientificM&Adecisionabouttheenterpriseschoice,aretheimportantpartsofthecurrentM&AcasesinChina.Basedonthemethodscombinedthetheoryandpractice,theoriesresearchandcasestudies,qualitativeresearchandquantitativeresearch,thisthesistriestolearnfromtheactualexperiencesandresultsofM&AcasesinChinaandforeigncounties,choosethevaluationmethods,avoidM&Aerrors,enhancemergerperformance,findthewaysofchoosingtheM&Aobjectiveenterprises.Themaincontentsaretheoriginofthequestions,thepurposeandsignificanceofthestudy,theideasandmethodsoftheresearch,themaincontentofpapers;introducescorrelativetheories,thestatusproblemsofthestudyaboutthevaluationandtheM&AinChinaandforeigncountries,demonstratestwotypicalmodelsofthevaluation;areabouttheanalysissystemandgeneralprocedureofthetargetenterpriseandthemethodsofeconomicfeasibilityanalysisinM&A;thethesisanalyzesthestatusofthemechanicalandelectricalequipmentmanufactures,accordingtothecharacteristicsofthelistedcompanies,choosesDCFmodelastheprincipalofvaluation.ThethesisusesDCFmodeltoassessthevalueofYinheTechnologypurchasingChangzhengElectronicAppartusco..Ltd.,analyzesthefeasibility,andusesthePEmodelstoexamit.Thelastpartsumsupthepaper,emphasizesthatitisagreatsignificanceforthemechanicalandelectricalequipmentmanufacturestoestablishtheanalysissystemandthegeneralprocedure,usethecorrectvaluationmethods,maketheM&Adecisiononselectingthetargetenterpriseandtheprice.Keywords:MergerAcquisitionTargetSelectionValuationDiscountCashFlowModel___111.119200120055200550012006.20061120062006.1231[1].123456[2]1.2[3]JamesTobin1981Q[4]31.31234DiscountCashFlowDCF4Price/EPSPE51-1DCFPE1-1522.1Consolidation1Merger2Acquisition[5]M&A2.2.114[6]2431525[7]62.2.211[8]234562137350050042.2.31[9]19-201898-190320201926-19292050-601975-199019942[10]8[8]1984780696682.2540955.221997200020011000519730020052004IBMPC2005PK2-11997199719981999200020012002200320042005337084103119168172160500http.//[11]12345200167102.22.2.1202060ModiglianiMillerMMMarkowitzSharpeLintnerBlackScholesCowMcDonaldSiegelMyer.202060MMModiglianiMiller2070B-SBlackScholesCowRoss2080EVA2090McDonaldSiegelMyer2.2.21112[12]312341l22.3[2004]134122-1EVA2-12.3.1--DCFDCF[13]1DCFDCF13DCF01(1)ntttCFPVr==+∑21tt0CFttrPV0[14]DCFTV01(1)(1)nttntCFTVPVrr==+++∑22TVnn52DCF5143DCFβ2.3.2--PE[15]151=/=/232123-5331216341733-13-13.13.1.112183231043.1.21234193.1.3123.1.4123204.5[17]30%63.1.5112[18]32145212331232244[19]12345512342361233.1.61VVV312VVVPV32VVVABVVVPPV3.2.......24........3-22544.14.1.112000-20029.545.3“”199830002000280220021029659.97%1839.17.86%24.25%24.79%5.05%1.73%32001426510%4-12001%%%91.34.24.587.07.06.086.89.33.985.610.24.281.812.45.874.718.56.865.923.410.764.923.911.263.227.59.359.526.314.258.330.311.4200220024.1.21DCF2DCF27[14]DCF3-55DCFDCFDCFDCF3DCF[14]12342854.1.311993199800080620023500020“”21997600112CCX1“”32920022002320021049.19%84601.97200331020021.6320022.761.1340%200452027%.4644846049.19%31—4.1.41304-221.82.10.84.76.2.8681687693136611966812121220024-32002681.679.500.38136.606.430.8376.932.901.48-196.683.683.642.182.179.891.49476.212.530.341.079.843.790.45279.902.197.480.25-1.14353.561.630.21-0.082631%7.12-70.2720021231/7.287.0529.12-6.17http.//