哈佛人民币国际化英文版2018548页

PAPERMAY2018POLICYANALYSISEXERCISERMBInternationalizationImplicationsforU.S.EconomicHegemonyEneaGjozaMasterinPublicPolicyCandidate,HarvardKennedySchoolBelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairsHarvardKennedySchool79JFKStreetCambridge,MA02138:AdobeStockCopyright2018,PresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollegePrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaPOLICYANALYSISEXERCISEPAPERMAY2018RMBInternationalizationImplicationsforU.S.EconomicHegemonyEneaGjozaMasterinPublicPolicyCandidate,HarvardKennedySchooliiiBelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs|HarvardKennedySchoolAbouttheAuthorEneaGjozaisaMasterinPublicPolicygraduateoftheHarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment,wherehewasalsoaBelferIGAStudentFellow.EneahasworkedasanaideinacongressionaldistrictofficeandintheNewYorkCityCouncil,andwasinvolvedinmultiplepoliticalcampaignsatthestateandlocallevelinNewYorkandVirginia.PriortoattendingHKS,EneawasapolicyanalystattheCharlesKochInstitute,whereheworkedondevelopingnewapproachestoU.S.foreignpolicyandgrandstrategy..AcknowledgmentsThisprojectwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithouttheguidanceandsup-portoftheHKSfaculty,andparticularlymyadvisors,ProfessorMatthewBunnandProfessorArneWestad.IwouldalsoliketoextendmythankstotheBelferCenterandMercatusCenterfortheirfinancialsupporttofacili-tatefieldresearch,andtoProfessorJohnPark,ProfessorStephenWalt,andAaronArnoldfortheirinputandguidance.Iamverygratefultoboththosewhowerewillingtositdownforinter-viewsandthosewhowereabletoputmeintouchwithinterviewsubjects.IamespeciallythankfulfortheassistanceofJimStent,JeffWilliams,BenWang,XianZhuo,TonySaich,andDwightPerkins.ivRMBInternationalization:ImplicationsforU.S.EconomicHegemonyTableofContents1.ExecutiveSummary.......................................................................12.WhyInternationalize?..................................................................42.1PoliticalDrivers.................................................................................................42.2EconomicDrivers..............................................................................................63.WhatMakesaCurrencyInternational?......................................74.TimelineofInternationalization................................................105.Re-imaginingGlobalEconomicInstitutions.............................125.1BeltandRoadInitiative...................................................................................125.2ChinaInternationalPaymentServiceCorp...................................................135.3AsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank...........................................................166.AssessmentofProgress............................................................187.DomesticStakeholders...............................................................217.1Supporters.......................................................................................................217.2Opponents......................................................................................................22vBelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs|HarvardKennedySchool8.Implications.................................................................................239.Recommendations.....................................................................25Recommendation1:Scalebacktheweaponizationoftheglobalfinancialsystem.............................................................................................................26Recommendation2:Predictablebudgetsanddeficitreduction............................27Recommendation3:Makeinternationalinstitutionsmoreinclusive.....................2810.Conclusion...................................................................................30AppendixA:Interviews................................................................................................31Bibliography................................................................................................................32viiBelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs|HarvardKennedySchoolListofAbbreviationsADBAsianDevelopmentBankAIIBAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBankBRIBeltandRoadInitiativeCCPChineseCommunistPartyCNAPSChinaNationalAdvancedPaymentSystemIMFInternationalMonetaryFundPBOCPeople’sBankofChinaPRCPeople’sRepublicofChinaRMBRenminbiSDRSpecialDrawingRightsSWIFTSocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunicationWTOWorldTradeOrganization1BelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs|HarvardKennedySchool1.ExecutiveSummaryChinahasrecentlyemergedasthesecondlargesteconomyaftertheU.S.,markingaremarkableturnaroundfromtheundeveloped,larg