2015全球奢侈品市场监控英文版

ThisinformationisconfidentialandwaspreparedbyBain&Companysolelyfortheuseofourclient;itisnottobereliedonbyany3rdpartywithoutBain'spriorwrittenconsentWorldwideLuxuryMarketsMonitor2015SpringUpdateClaudiaD'ArpizioMilan,May21st201523%Globalluxuryhit€224Bin2014despiteslowdowninrealterms,over€3Tcumulatedretailsalesinthelast20years10%3%GLOBALPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETTREND(1994-2014E|€B)Sept11SARSSubprime&financialcrisis$/€Socio-EconomicTurbulence@K4%7%5%32014growthinlinewith2013alsothankstoEuroweaknessinH2GLOBALPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETTREND(2013-2014E|€B)+3%+3%Note:currencyexchangeratesindexed:Q42014average=1004AmericasEuropeJapanAsia-PacificRestofWorldYoY‘14Evs.‘13GLOBALPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETBYAREA('13-'14E|€B)+4%+2%+1%+2%+3%+4%+4%+2%+9%+3%+4%+5%@KWHEREPositiveperformanceofmaturemarketsandMiddleEast,heterogeneoustrendsinAsiaOverallgoodperformance;MiddleEastslowdowninH2drivenbyRussianspendingdeclineandoilpricedropimpactinglocalstrendRecordgrowthinrealterms;VATincreasesofteninglocalspendinginH2WeakeningeurodrivingH2betterperformancethankstotouristicflowsMixedperformance:stagnationinGreaterChinaoffsetbybriskgrowthinSouthKoreaSoundlocalandtouristicconsumption;currencyeffectoffsettingH2slightslowdown5USandemergingmarketsthemaingrowthdrivers;cosmetics(bothskincareandmake-up)outperformingfragrancesAccessoriesHardLuxuryApparelBeautyOther+2%+4%+2%+2%+3%+0%WHATAccessoriesconfirmingmarketleadershipinabsoluteandrelativetermsYoY‘14Evs.‘13GLOBALPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETBYCATEGORY('13-'14E|€B)Watchessalesratherstableatgloballevel,withH2Eurodevaluationvs.SwissFrancpartiallyoffsettingworseningsituationinAsia;JewelryoutperformingonsolidfundamentalsShoesconfirmedtopperformingcategory;ongoingpolarizationinleathergoods;men'ssegmentoutperformingacrosstheboardHighdynamismofwomenswearwhilemixedtrendsinmenswear,hitbynegativeimpactofMainlandChina6WORLDWIDEPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETTREND@CONSTANTANDCURRENTEXCHANGERATES(2014E-Q12015F)(USDstable)(JPYdevaluation)(GBPappreciation)(CHFappreciation)(CNYappreciation)USD/EURJPY/EURGBP/EURCHF/EURCNY/EURLowsingledigitgrowthin2015Q1inrealtermsthenboostedbyweakEuro(USDappreciation)(JPYappreciation)(GBPappreciation)(CHFappreciation)(CNYappreciation)±++++++++7Currencyfluctuationsarebecomingarealchallengefortheindustry,impactingonpricedifferentialsandtouristflows*Note:pricedifferentialbasedonapanelofcarryoverleathergoodsitemsbyEuropeanbrandsAVERAGEPRICEΔVS.€*(%|MID2014)AVERAGEPRICEΔVS.€*(%|MID2015)UKRussiaUSABrazilChinaHongKongS.KoreaJapanUAEBrandsemergingpricingstrategiesmainlytargetingstabilityofpricedifferentials,withsometestingarealpriceharmonizationonselecteditems•Currencyfluctuations(e.g.Eurodevaluation)•Standardandexceptionalpriceadjustmentsimplementedbyluxurybrands8EUROPELUXURYGOODSMARKET(2012-2015F|€B)WesternEuropestronglysupportedbyAsiantourismalsohelpedbycurrencyfluctuations;EasternEUstillsuffering@K+3-5%+2%+4%+2%+2%YoY%•WeakeurosupportinginboundtourismintheEurozone(especiallyfromChinaandUS)-Italystartingtorecover:goodstartoftheyearsustainedbytouristsandtimidreboundofmultibrandchannel;Milan#1shoppingdestinationwithad-hocinitiativessetupfortheEXPO2015toprovideextraimpulse-Spainreboundaboveexpectations-FrancepositivetrendpulledbyParis•SoftQ1inUKbutChineseandMiddleEasternsupportingthemarket•SoundNorthernEuropedespitelessrelevantcontributionoftourists-Germansmostsolidlocalconsumers•SwitzerlandnegativeduetoCHFappreciationredirectingtouristicandlocalflowstoItalyandFrance•EasternEuropestillsufferingapartfromfewexceptions,withRussiastillonanegativetrendin2015WeakeuroattractingtouristicspendinginEuropeNote:2015FexchangeratevariationreferstotheaverageJan2015-May2015YTDfigures9AMERICASLUXURYGOODSMARKET(2012-2015F|€B)USbelowexpectationsin2015losingthesupportofincreasinglyrelevanttouristicshopping•Decreaseoftouristicshopping:strongdollarpartiallyoffsetbyselectedpriceadjustments-ChinesedecreaseimpactingUSwestcoastandHawaii,LasVegas,andNYC,whileLatinAmericaneRussianimpactingMiami•Robustyetnotboominglocalconsumption-ExceptionalcoldimpactingQ1-Slowreboundofuppermiddleclass-Departmentstorespushingoff-pricesalesandchannels-Overallpositivetrendofmen'scategories•E-comoutperformingacrossformats-Volatiletoplineevermoreexposedtotouristicflowswithsteadyincreasingrentalcostsintoplocationsquestioningbrick&mortarsustainability•Canadamaintainingsoundtrend;unevenperformanceacrossLatinAmerica,alsoimpactedbyoilpricedecline+1-3%+5%+9%+4%+4%YoY%StrongerUSDvs.EURin2015;ongoingdevaluationofRealdecreasingBrazilianpurchasingpower@KNote:2015FexchangeratevariationreferstotheaverageJan2015-May2015YTDfigures10JAPANLUXURYGOODSMARKET(2012-2015F|€B)TourismizationofJapancompletelychangingmarketdynamicsandrequiringnewinitiativestoserveconsumers@K•Fastestgrowingmarketinrealterms•Becoming#1touristicdestinationforChinese-+83%Chineseinboundtouristsin2014and+160%YoYinFeb.2015-Upto40%pricedifferentialvs.MainlandChina-Touristicpurchasereachingupto20%shareinfirstmonthsof2015vs.5-10%in2014-Tokyostillcapturingmostofthisnewimpulsedespitenewvisasreg