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LUXURYADVERTISINGEXPENDITUREFORECASTS2016LuxuryAdvertisingExpenditureForecasts2016Writtenby:LouisMorales-ChanardandFrançoisThumerelOriginalframeworkbySandrineGrognu,JoeLunnandIsabelleMartinoliAhugethankyoutoallourofficesfortheirvaluablehelp.Wehaveproducedthispapertogiveourviewsontopicalmatters.Itdoesnotpurporttogiveanyspecificadvice,andshouldnotbetakenorrelieduponassodoing.©Zenith2016AboutZenithZenithispartofPublicisMedia,whichisoneofthefoursolutionshubsofPublicisGroupe,alongsidePublicisCommunications,Publicis.SapientandPublicisHealthcare.LedbySteveKing,CEO,PublicisMediaispoweredbyitsfourglobalbrands,Starcom,Zenith,Mediavest|SparkandOptimedia|Blue449,andsupportedbyitsdigital-first,data-drivenGlobalPractices,whichtogetherdeliverclientvalueandbusinesstransformation.PublicisMediaiscommittedtohelpingitsclientsnavigatethemodernmedialandscapeandispresentinmorethan100countrieswithover13,500employeesworldwide.Contents1Foreword2Methodology4Introduction5Globaloverview8Distinguishinghighluxury&broadluxury14Regionalsummaries24US$100million+countryentries25China27France28Germany29HongKong30Italy32Russia34SouthKorea36Spain38Taiwan40UnitedKingdom42UnitedStatesofAmerica1LuxuryAdvertisingExpenditureForecasts2016FOREWORDWelcometothesecondeditionofourannualLuxuryAdvertisingExpenditureForecastsreport.OurregularAdvertisingExpenditureForecastsreporthasbeenpublishedcontinuouslyfornearly30years,andistheindustrystandardsourceforanalysisofadvertisingtrendsamongmediaagenciesandfinancialinstitutions.Lastyear,drawingonourvastexpertiseoftheluxurysector,welaunchedtheLuxuryAdspendExpenditureForecasts,thefirststudyofmediadevelopmentsinthisever-changingindustry.Studyingtheluxuryindustryisacomplexbutenthrallingtask,sinceitisglobalinscopeandmovingataneverfasterpace.Forinstance,afteryearsofdouble-digitgrowth,thesectorhasnowenteredaneraofmoderategrowthinadspendbutgreatlyacceleratedinnovation.Brandsarelookingfornewwaystocreatevaluebyemphasisingexperienceratherthanownership,andtheyarenolongershyofdigital.Thefirstinstalmentwasatremendoussuccess,validatingourapproach.Wehavetriedtodeepenitevenfurtherthisyearwithlongerandmoredetailedmarketinsights.Wehaveonceagainsurveyed18marketsaroundtheworld,11ofwhicharefullydetailedinthisbook.Wehopeyouwillfinditenjoyableaswellasuseful.Haveaniceread.LuxuryAdvertisingExpenditureForecasts20162Thefollowing18countriesweresurveyed:China,Colombia,France,Germany,HongKong,Italy,Malaysia,Mexico,theNetherlands,Peru,Russia,Singapore,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,Spain,Taiwan,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Foreachcountry,wedefinedluxuryexpenditureasthecombinedtotalofadexpenditureinfoursub-categories:luxuryfashion&accessories,luxurywatches&jewellery,luxuryfragrances&beauty,andluxuryautomobiles.Thisreportcovers18marketsoverall,withseparatechaptersforthe11largest,wheremorethanUS$100millionisspentonluxuryadvertising.Allfiguresareofestimatednetspend,andrunfrom2012to2017.Weconvertedlocal-currencyfiguresintoUSdollarsattheaverageexchangeratesfor2015.PleasenotethatforSouthAfricathereisnosplitbetweenpaidsearchandotherdigitaladvertising,andforRussia,SingaporeandtheUKtherearenofiguresforpaidsearchexpenditure.Countriesincludedintheregionalblocsare:NorthAmerica:USALatinAmerica:Colombia,Mexico,PeruEurope:France,Germany,Italy,Netherlands,UK,SpainEasternEurope:RussiaAsia:China,Malaysia,Taiwan,HongKong,Singapore,SouthKoreaAdvancedAsia:HongKong,Singapore,SouthKoreaFasttrackAsia:China,Malaysia,TaiwanMaturemarkets:USA+Europe+AdvancedAsiaRisingmarkets:FasttrackAsia+LatinAmerica+RussiaMETHODOLOGYCountryCurrencyExchangerateChinaYuan6.08ColombiaColombianpeso2855.6FranceEuro0.9GermanyEuro0.9HongKongHongKongdollar7.75ItalyEuro0,90MalaysiaRinggit3.75MexicoMexicanpeso15.8NetherlandsEuro0.9PeruPeruviannuevosol3.35RussiaRussianrouble60.4SingaporeSingaporedollar1.36SouthAfricaRand12.72SouthKoreaSouthKoreanwon1120.7SpainEuro0,90TaiwanNewTaiwandollar31.1UnitedKingdomPoundsterling0.65UnitedStatesUSdollar1US$/localcurrency2015exchangeratesusedIntroduction5LuxuryAdvertisingExpenditureForecasts2016GlobaloverviewAfteradisappointingyearin2015,luxuryadspendisexpectedtoacceleratein2016and2017AccordingtotheconsultingfirmBain&Company,theluxuryconsumergoodsmarketgrewbyjust1%-2%in2015toreachUS$277billion.Thisgrowthrateismuchsmallerthanin2014(5%)andreflectsanoveralleconomicslowdowninseveralbigmarkets(inparticulartheBRICs)aswellasadversegeopoliticalfactorssuchaslocalconflictsandterrorism.Althoughtheseelementsofuncertaintywerealreadyinplayin2014,theyhadagreaterimpactthananticipatedin2015.Advertisersfromtheluxurysectorreactedtothesethreatsbyscalingdowntheiradvertisingbudgetsinseveralmarketsin2015.Overalladspendbyluxuryfirmsgrewonly1.9%in2015.ThisgrowthwasmainlydrivenbyEurope(+4.7%)andNorthAmerica(+3.6%),whilebudgetsdroppedinAsia(-1.4%)andEasternEurope(-20.3%).Weforecastgrowthtopickupfrom1.9%in2015to3.0%in2016and3.5%in2017,boostedbyrecoveryinAsia(withannualgrowthforecastat3.8%to2017)andEasternEurope(3.3%growthto2017).Between2015and2017,weestimatethatluxuryadspendwillgrow