2016春全球奢侈品市场监控英文版

MARKETWORLDWIDEMONITORLUXURY2016SPRINGUPDATE2'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15+13%+1%CurrentExch.rateConstantExch.rate€77B€85B€92B€96B€108B€128B€133B€133B€128B€136B€147B€159B€170B€167B€153B€173B€192B€212B€218B€224B€253BSept11SARSSubprime&financialcrisis$/€Socio-EconomicTurbulenceChinesestockturmoilPERSONALLUXURYGOODMARKET2015E:THEBEGINNINGOFANEWERA+6%'95-'15CAGR'15-'14YoY3FOURCAUSESOFAPARTICULARLYCHALLENGINGQ42015LOWERINGTOURISTICFLOWSINEUROPEWORSENINGTRENDINUSHKANDMACAUDRAGGINGDOWNASIAMIDDLEEASTMARKEDBYINSTABILITY•LoweringconsumptionfromSeptembertoholidayseason•Heavydiscountingofdepartmentstoresimpactingsalestrenddespitevolumeupliftandjeopardizingbrands'directdistribution(bothbricksandmortarandonline)•TheParisterroristicattacksstronglyaffectedtheholidayseasoninthecityandhamperedtouristicflowsinEurope•OtherEuropeanluxurycapitalsonlypartiallyrecoveringthelostsales•MainlandChinaimprovinginthelastweeksoftheyear•HKandMacauconfirmedhighdoubledigitcontraction•SouthEastAsiaimprovingthroughouttheyear•Japanconfirmedaverypositiveperformance•MiddleEastweaktrendfurtherimpactedbysocio-politicaltensions(i.e.Beirutterroristicattack)4Lowsingledigitgrowthamidstconsumers'changingpurchasingpatterns:intercontinentaltourismslowdownandrecoveryofEuropeanlocalspendingAccessoriesandJewelryconfirming2015outperformingtrendsAppareltrendimpactedbystrugglingAccessiblegiantsWatchesfarfromrecovery++JapanandKoreamagnetsforChinesetouristsMainlandChinabacktogrowthEuropecountingonresurgenceoflocalcustomersUScontinuingQ42015trendHongKongandMacaufarfrominvertingthedecline1+%1Q2016--+~Accessories&JewelryBeautyApparelWatches++Japan&S.Korea+Europe,M.China&SEA-Americas--~RoWHK&Macau5USMARKETINDECLINEWITHNOSUPPORTOFTOURISTSANDUNEVENLOCALDEMANDSLIGHTRECOVERYINLATAMFOSTEREDBYAREPATRIATIONOFLOCALDEMANDCANADAINGOODSHAPETERRORISTICATTACKS,NEWBIOMETRICVISADRIVINGTHEDECLINEOFTOURISTICCONSUMPTIONLOCALSRE-APPROCHINGLUXURYACROSSCATEGORIESANDCOUNTRIESPOSITIVETRENDOFMAINLANDCHINABREAKINGLASTTHREEYEARSDECLINEHONGKONGANDMACAUSTILLHIGHLYNEGATIVETAIWANSTEADYGOODTRENDAMERICASStrugglingtodeliverEUROPELosingtourists,yetstandingonlocalsrecoveryGREATERCHINAAbigcomebackamidstlong-termchallenges2016FULLYEAROUTLOOK6RESTOFASIAPositivemomentumJAPANSustainable(out)performance?ROWToughpresent,yetbig(?)betsforthefutureSEAPERFORMINGWELLONINTRA-REGIONALTOURISTANDLOCALSHOPPERS,SINGAPORELAGGINGBEHINDSOUTHKOREAMAINTAININGMOMENTUMBOTHONLOCALSANDONCHINESEFLOWSCONFIRMEDTOPMARKETFORGROWTH,YETDECELERATINGVS.2015DUETOASTRONGERYENLACKLUSTERTRENDONLOCALSCASTINGSHADOWSONTHEMARKETINCASECHINESESWOULDREDUCEMIDDLEEASTSTILLRATHERDEPRESSEDWITHSTRONGINTERESTONTHEIRANOPPORTUNITYAUSTRALIAMAINTAININGPOSITIVETRENDALLEYESONAFRICA2016FULLYEAROUTLOOK7GLOBALLUXURYMARKETEXPECTEDTOREPLICATE2015PERFORMANCEIN2016EuropeAmericasJapanAsiaExcl.MainlandChinaMainlandChinaROWTOTAL2/0%-±1/1%-+2/4%++±0/2%+±0/2%++5/7%++1/3%+ConstantExch.rate8WITHALONGERPERSPECTIVE,THEMARKETISEXPECTEDTOGROWATAMILDPACETO2020FRISINGCHINESEMIDDLECLASSANDRECOVERYOFMATUREMARKETSCONSUMERSWILLDRIVEMOSTOFTHEGROWTHGENY&XTOBECOMEEVERMORERELEVANTASLUXURYCONSUMERSON-LINETOREMAINTHECHAMPIONFORMATGROWINGATDOUBLEDIGITSAHEALTHIERMARK-DOWNMARKETWILLREDUCESALESCANNIBALIZATIONTHEMARKETWON'TRELYONACLEARCHAMPIONCATEGORYNORSEGMENTTOPROPELGROWTH23%CAGRXY@-9HOWWILLTHEGLOBALPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETLOOKLIKEIN2020BoutiqueRegionEuropeAmericasJapanChinaRestofAsiaRoWConsumerNationalityEuropeanAmericanJapaneseChineseRoWConsumerGenerationZYXBabyboomersSilentShopperTypeLocalNonlocalChannelRetailWholesaleAssortmentModelMono-brandMulti-brandFormatMonobrandstoresDeptstoresSpecialtystoresOff-pricestoresOnlineAirportPricingFullPriceMarkdownCategoryApparelHardLuxuryBeautyOtherSegmentAccessibleAspirationalAbsoluteOtherAsianAccessories10MARKETDRIVENBYCONTINUOUSGROWTHOFCHINESEANDRECOVERYOFMATUREMARKETSCONSUMERSChineseconsumersstilldrivingthegrowth,stronglydrivenbytheboostoftherisingmiddleclass201520202015202020152020RegionConsumerNationalityShopperTypeAmorestrategicmanagementofinternationalpricing,reducingdifferentialsexpectedtore-patriatetouristic(i.e.Chinese)spending½Localconsumption34%Chineseconsumersca.Recoveryofmaturemarketconsumersspending,expectedtobegraduallyregainedthankstointegratedstrategiesimplementedbyluxurybrandstorecoverconsensusandtrustWHERE11GENERATIONX(GROWINGINSPENDING)ANDY(GROWINGINNUMBERS)DRIVINGTHEPERSONALLUXURYMARKET20152020ConsumerNationalityLuxurymarketmainlyboostedbyGenerationYandGenerationXGenerationYmarketvaluealmostentirelydrivenbytheChinesemiddleclassGenerationXbenefittingfromahigherluxuryspendingduetochangingconsumptionhabitsacrossregionsGenerationZapproachingthemarket,althoughstillrepresentingaverysmallsharein2020¾GenerationsXYZca.oftotalConsumerGeneration50M+NewconsumersWHO2015202012RETAILIZATIONMAINTAININGMOMENTUMAMIDSTRATIONALIZATION,OFF-PRICE/AIRPORT/ONLINEOUTPACINGChannelE-commercegaininggroundacrossformatsandmodelswithnewonesemergingMorestrategicmanagementofairportandoutletsupportingdynamismglobally(7and8%CAGR