香港珠宝企业领先地位不可动摇首次覆盖周生生及六福并予买入评级20180104银河国际26页

1中国消费行业2018年1月4日李嘉豪,CFA—分析员(852)[e-mail]王志文,CFA—研究部主管(852)[e-mail]香港珠宝企业:领先地位不可动摇首次覆盖周生生及六福并予买入评级行业估值自上而下：在中国市场结构性增长的支持下，珠宝市场逐步复苏。我们长远看好中国内地市场的前景，因国内的消费升级持续。我们的主要投资思路是，更多大城市以外的消费者可买得起更多奢侈品，为珠宝零售商缔造可持续的增长。我们预计在未来几年，珠宝商的同店销售增长将保持高单位数。整体中国市场的增长将由针对中产阶级的产品所推动，而高端产品将继续受累于反腐工作。而香港市场方面，尽管当地需求正在回升，但由于内地游客现在更倾向到其他地方购物，我们预计来自中国内地游客的需求将趋向平缓。我们预计，短期内整体同店销售增长将处于高单位数，然后在财富效应的持续支持下,同店销售增长中线将稳定在中单位数。我们预计，香港市场的一个重要投资主题是租金的下调，这可能将持续至2019年。香港珠宝商的定位良好，有能力捕捉中国消费升级的机遇。我们对三大香港珠宝零售商，即周大福、六福及周生生的前景感到乐观。总体而言，我们认为香港品牌将有能力捕捉中国内地中高端客户（例如在产品定位、市场策略方面），并预期在内地市场增长之中，香港品牌将继续保持领先地位。珠宝商未来重点将是扩张内地的销售网点。例如六福在18财年将销售网点净开店数目上调至一百间。电商也有望成为增长的引擎，但由于短期内销售管理费用和资本开支增加，可能需要一段时间才能看到利润。自下而上：六福有望在本轮周期中突围而出。我们的选股是建基于中国奢侈品市场正在健康复苏的关键假设，及中产阶层的消费升级需求将支持可持续的增长。我们注意到，香港珠宝商在更积极扩大销售网点，我们相信这有助改善盈利。不过，我们相信六福有望成为本轮周期的最佳表现股份，因为从前几个周期的经验来看，其同店销售增长有望优于同业。以现价距离目标价的升幅计算，我们推荐股份的次序为周生生（+23.0％）六福（+15.9％）周大福（+6.4％）。我们认为周生生的估值最具吸引力，而由于公司的基数较低，其在中国内地的扩张有望取得更多可见的成果。六福估值已不再被低估，但我们仍看好公司在当前周期的扩张，相信目前股价有一定的上涨空间。虽然周大福应继续成为中国珠宝市场的领跑者，而公司亦继续致力削减香港业务成本，但我们认为估值已反映了基本面以及市场领先地位的溢价。中国奢侈品行业来源:彭博,中国银河国际证券研究部预测CompanyTickerLastPrice(HK$)TP(HK$)RatingCTF1929HK8.659.20HOLDLukFook590HK33.9039.30BUYCSS116HK18.7023.00BUYCompanyTickerRatingPrice3-YearHK$FY0FY1FY2FY1FY2CAGR(%)FY1FY2ChowTaiFookJewellery1929HKHOLD8.6528.2721.0818.8434.1211.8910.282.852.64LukFookHoldingsIntlLtd590HKBUY33.9019.6017.5215.1011.8316.0317.262.071.88ChowSangSangHldg116HKBUY18.7017.0615.0912.3813.0621.9418.161.331.25EPSGrowth(%)PER(x)PBR(x)周大福六福周生生持有买入买入公司股票代号评级股价(港元)每股盈利增长公司股票代号股价目标价评级(港元)(港元)周大福六福周生生持有买入买入2ChinaConsumerSectorJanuary4,2018TonyLi,CFA—Analyst(852)[e-mail],CFA—HeadofResearch(852)[e-mail]:LeadingPositionUnchallengedInitiateChowSangSangandLukFookwithaBUYRatingValuationofthesectorTop-down:JewelleryMarketRecoveringGradually,SupportedbyStructuralGrowthinChina.Wearelong-termbullishontheMainlandChinamarket,asitisundergoingaconsumptionupgrade.Thecoreofourinvestmentthesisisthatmoreconsumersoutsidemajorcitiescanaffordmoreluxuryproducts,creatingsustainablegrowthforjewelleryretailers.Inthecomingyears,weexpectSSSGforjewelerstoremaininthehighsingledigits.Themarketwillbedrivenbyproductstargetingthemiddleclass,whilehigh-endproductswillcontinuetobedampenedbytheanti-graftcampaign.ForHongKong,weexpectdemandfromMainlandChinesetouriststobecomelukewarmastouristsnowprefertoshopelsewhere,althoughlocaldemandispickingup.WeforecastthatoverallSSSGwillbeinthehighsingledigitsinthenearterm,andthenstabilizetomid-singledigitsasthewealtheffectcontinues.WeexpectanimportantthemeforHKtoberentalcostreductions,whichcouldlastuntil2019.HongKongJewelersAreWell-PositionedforChina’sConsumptionUpgrade.WearepositiveontheperformanceofthethreeleadingHongKongjewelleryretailers,namelyCTF,LukFookandCSS.Ingeneral,weconsiderHongKongbrandstobebetterpositionedtocapturethemid-tohigh-endmarketinMainlandChina(e.g.productposition,marketingstrategy),andweexpectHongKongbrandstocontinuetomaintainaleadingpositioninthegrowingMainlandmarket.ThefocuswillbeexpandingthePOSnetworkinMainlandChina.Forexample,LukFookhasrevisedupitsPOSnetadditionto100inFY18.E-commercemaybeanengineofgrowth,butitmaytakesometimeforprofittobevisibleduetoincreasingSG&Aandcapexinthenearterm.Bottom-up:LukFookcouldoutperforminthecurrentcycle.OurstockpickforthesectorrestsonthecriticalassumptionthatChina'sluxurymarketisrecoveringhealthily,asconsumptionupgradedemandfromthemiddleclasssupportssustainablegrowth.WenotethatHongKong-basedjewellershavebeenmoreaggressiveinexpandingtheirPOS,whichwebelievewillbehelpfulfortheirearnings.However,webelieveLukFookcouldbethebestperformerinthiscycle,becauseitsSSSGislikelytooutperform,basedonexperienceinpreviouscycles.Ourorderofpreferenceis:CSS(+23.0%)LF(+15.9%)CTF(+6.4%),basedonourTPupside.WebelievethevaluationofCSSisthemostattractive,whileitsexpansioninMainlandChinacouldreapmorevisibleoutputduetothelow-baseeffect.LFisnolongerveryundervalued,butwearestillpositiveontheCompany’sexpansioninthecurrentcycle,andseesomeupsidepotentialinthecurrentprice.AlthoughCTFshouldcontinuetobetheleaderintheChinajewelrymarket,anditscost-cuttingeffortsinHKaremorevisible,webelievethevaluationalreadyreflectsthefundamentals,aswellasthepremiumforitsmarket-leadingposition.ChinaLuxurySectorSources:Bloomberg,CGISResearchestimatesCompanyTickerLastPrice(HK$)TP(HK$)RatingCTF1929HK8.659.20HOLDLukFook590HK33.9039.30BUYCSS116HK18.7023.00BUYCompanyTickerRatingPrice3-YearHK$FY0FY1FY2FY1FY2CAGR(%)FY1FY2ChowTaiFookJewellery1929HKHOLD8.6528.2721.0818.8434.1211.8910.282.852.64LukFookHoldingsIntlLtd590HKBUY33.9019.6017.5215.1011.8316.0317.262.071.88ChowSangSangHldg116HKBUY18.7017.0615.0912.3813.0621.9418.161.331.25EPSGrowth(%)PER(x)PBR(x)3ChowSangSang[BUY,TP:HK$23.00].WeinitiatecoverageonChowSangSang(CSS)withaBUYrating.EventhoughthescaleoftheCompanyisthesmallestofthethreeleadingjewelersinHongKong,weexpectitsgrowthinthecurrentrecoverycycletobemorevisiblethanforsomebiggerplayers.Weexpectthatwith