医疗器械行业深度研究报告黄金十年谁执牛耳20190319兴业证券126页

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业研究行业深度研究报告证券研究报告＃industryId＃医药生物＃investSuggestion＃推荐(＃investSuggestionChange＃维持）重点公司重点公司18E19E评级迈瑞医疗3.34（A）3.84审慎增持乐普医疗0.69（A）0.97审慎增持健帆生物0.97（A）1.27审慎增持安图生物1.371.81审慎增持艾德生物0.88（A）1.16审慎增持开立医疗0.63（A）0.91审慎增持万东医疗0.280.35审慎增持鱼跃医疗0.72（A）0.94审慎增持备注：考虑除权除息＃relatedReport＃相关报告《降税+研发加计扣除对医药企业利好几何？》2019-03-17《政策脱敏“暖春”渐现，三大优势明显--医药行业周报（2019.03.11-2019.03.17）》2019-03-17《医保目录调整将至，继续深化“腾笼换鸟”》2019-03-14＃emailAuthor＃分析师：徐佳熹[e-mail]0190513080003＃assAuthor＃研究助理：张佳博[e-mail]投资要点＃summary＃⚫技术进步、产业链成熟等内部因素为国产器械发展提供基础，政策、资本等外部因素为国产器械营造了历史性的发展机遇。企业层面，技术快速发展，国产医疗设备已逐步突破多项技术壁垒；专业化产业集群日趋成熟，为控制成本、扩大生产规模创造了条件。国家层面，医改、分级诊疗、扶持国产设备、鼓励民营医院等多项政策全面落实中，医疗设备市场进入持续放量阶段，国产厂商充分享受政策红利。市场层面，器械投融资及并购市场活跃，为优秀国产企业提供充足的资金与资源。⚫国产与进口产品同台竞争，进口替代成为未来十年器械行业的主旋律。我国已有多个领域实现进口替代，例如心血管支架、监护仪、DR以及生化诊断等产品。追溯我国已经实现进口替代的器械细分领域的成功经验，技术、品牌、性价比、渠道都是国产企业的制胜关键，政策的推动作用也不可忽视。乘着分级诊疗、基层放量的东风，预计未来五年又将有多个细分领域例如彩超、CT、MRI、化学发光等领域将完成进口替代。自主创新、平台化布局、向下游产业链延伸等是我国器械企业进口替代之外的发展逻辑；居民疾病谱的变化及健康保健意识增强，推动家用医疗器械高速发展。⚫器械“两票制”与“集采降价”形成一定降价风险，企业变革大势所趋。“两票制”加速医疗器械行业集中度提升，生产企业应加快自建营销队伍，减少对经销商的依赖，强化终端服务能力。集采降价试点也进入深水区，多模式采购不断涌现；耗材集采相较于药品有所差异，难以进行“一致性”评价，高值耗材的带量采购即使推出也需要一定时间准备，且由于规格参数众多，不太可能像药品一样独家中标，企业通过加强研发以提高产品的技术壁垒，避免产品同质化是应对之道。⚫投资建议：我们一方面看好能充分享受政策红利、研发能力强大的标的，另一方面也要考虑到“两票制”与集采降价对行业带来的影响，重点关注受政策冲击小、行业处于快速成长期、竞争结构好的细分领域，看好研发、销售能力强，品种具有差异性，终端服务能力强的企业，推荐迈瑞医疗、万东医疗、开立医疗、健帆生物、鱼跃医疗、乐普医疗、安图生物、艾德生物等公司。风险提示：“两票制”实施进度快于预期；器械集采降价等行业政策激进程度超预期；新产品推广低于预期；创新器械审批进度慢于预期；产品竞争加剧。＃title＃黄金十年，谁执牛耳-医疗器械行业深度研究报告＃createTime1＃2019年03月19日请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-行业深度研究报告[e-mail][e-mail]（Maintained）PharmaceuticalsInternalfactors,suchastechnologicalprogressandgreatindustrialchains,laythefoundationforthedevelopmentofdomesticmedicaldeviceindustry,whileexternalfactors,suchaspoliciesandcapital,createahistoricopportunityfortheindustrydevelopment.Withtechnologyrapidlyadvancing,domesticmedicaldeviceenterpriseshavegraduallybrokenthroughanumberoftechnicalbarriers;moreandmorematurespecializedindustrialclustersofferconditionsforcostcontrolandproductionexpansion.Besides,multiplepolicies,suchasmedicalreform,hierarchicaldiagnosisandtreatment,supportfordomesticmedicaldevicesandencouragementforprivatehospitals,havebeenfullyimplementedandprovidedsubstantialbenefitsfordomesticmanufacturers,whichbooststhesalesvolumeofmedicaldevicesinthemarket.Anactivemarketofinvestment,financingandM&Aprovidessufficientfundsandresourcesforoutstandingdomesticenterprises.Inthecontextofcompetitionbetweendomesticandimporteddevices,replacementofimporteddevicesisthemaintrendinthenextdecade.Domesticmedicaldeviceshavereplacedimportedonesinmanysegmentsofcardiovascularstents,monitors,DRandbiochemicaldiagnosis.Reviewingtheprevioussuccessfulreplacement,wefindthattechnology,brands,cost-returnperformanceanddistributionsconstitutethekeypoints,andpromotionoffavorablepoliciescannotbeignored.Takingadvantageofhierarchicaltreatmentandvolumeincreaseingrass-rootmarket,moreenterprisesareexpectedtoreplaceimportedproductsinthesegmentsofcolordopplerultrasound,CT,MRIandchemiluminescenceinthenextfiveyears.Inadditiontoreplacementofimportedproducts,China’sdeviceenterprisesgaingrowththroughindependentinnovation,platform-orientedlayoutandextensiontothedownstreamindustrialchains.Thechangeindiseasespectrumandtheimprovementinhealth-careconsciousnessofresidentsboosttherapiddevelopmentofhouseholdmedicaldevices.‘Two-invoice’systemformedicaldeviceprocurementand‘jointprocurementwithspecifiedvolume’triggeradownsideriskinpricecuts,whichimpliesaninevitablereformofmedicaldevicemanufacturers.Amidhigherconcentrationrateofmedicaldeviceindustrydueto‘two-invoice’system,manufacturersshouldspeeduptobuildtheirownmarketingteams,reducethedependenceondistributors,andstrengthentheirterminalservicecapacity.With‘jointprocurementwithspecifiedvolume’hinderedbysomeobstacles,multipleprocurementmodeshaveconstantlyappearedinthemarket.Differentfromdrugs,medicaldevicesaredifficulttobeassessedbyQualityConsistencyEvaluation(QCE).Theintroductionofbulkprocurementofhigh-valuedeviceswillalsotakesometimetoprepare,andduetoalargenumberofspecifications,deviceenterprisesareunlikelytoexclusivelywinthebiddinglikedrugmanufacturers.EnterprisesshouldincreaseinputintoR&Dtoimprovetheirtechnicaladvantagesoftheirproductsandavoidproducthomogenization.Investmentrecommendation:weareoptimisticaboutthecompanieswhichcanfullyenjoythebenefitsfromfavorablepoliciesandownstrongR&Dcapacity;meanwhile,weshouldconsiderthenegativeimpactsontheindustrycausedby‘two-invoice’systemand‘jointprocurementwithspecifiedvolume’.Wepayspecialattentiononthesegmentswithlittleshockfrompolicies,rapidgrowthpotentialandappropriatecompetitionstructureandtheenterpriseswithstrongR&Dandmarketingcapacities,differentiatedproductsandhigh-qualityterminalservice.WerecommendMINDRAY(300760.SZ),WDM(600055.SH),SONOSCAPE(300633.SZ),JAFRON(300529.SZ),YUYUEMEDICAL(002223.SZ),LEPUMEDICAL(300003.SZ),AUTOBIO(603658.SH),AMOYDX(300685.SZ).Potentialrisks:faster-than-expect