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20114JOURNALOFRENMINUNIVERSITYOFCHINANo42011?现代化理论的兴起衰落与复兴[]自从1959年政治学家李普赛特提出经济发展促进民主化这一现代化理论的基本命题以来,这个论断被反复检测批评和捍卫现代化理论的发展过程分为三个阶段:兴起衰落和复兴通过对这三个阶段主要研究成果及其方法论的介绍,梳理这一领域日益精细复杂的知识框架,阐释这种知识变迁后面的现实因素[]经济发展;民主化;现代化理论;政治文化;民主转型[]刘瑜:法学博士,清华大学人文社会科学学院政治学系副教授(北京100084),,1959,,,:,206070;7080,,,,,,,,(FreedomHouse),(PolityIV);,19[1],;,(WorldValueSurvey),50,,,,,,,16,:,,,,,,:,,(1959),,[2],,::,:,,[3],:,:,,;,;,,:,,;,,1959,,,:;:(1973),,,60,,,,[4](1979),,:,[5]:(1994),,:[6]1999,,,[7](P60),(1992),,17,,,,,,,,,[8](P76),:208090,:,[9](P27)2060:,6070,,,;,58,,19651980,2/3[10]:,,;,,,20,(1996),,:,;,,[11],(1991),,,,,[12](1973),,,,,,,,,,[13]:,,2070,,,:(1970),,,:[14](P346),[15](P344),,,:,[16](P351),,,,,,:18,,,,,,[17](P362)(1986),:,[18](P19-20),,,(1996)15,[19](P77)(1995),,,,,,27,21,2/3[20](P73),(1988):[21](P30),,,2080,,,[22](P99)(2000),,:,,,,,?,,,,13519501990,,,6000,,[23](P3),:,,,[24](P4),19,205070,,GasiowowskiMarkEconomicCrisisandPoliticalRegimeChangeAmericanPoliticalScienceReview,1995,Vol89,No411000,8;10012000,18;6500,[25](P4),,,,,21,,,,,2080(2003),,:,,,,:,,:6000,6000,,,,,,1950,:9072,2017,1950,?,18501949[26],[27]:18501949,,,,,,[28],,(),,,:1000,1/107000,28[29](P169)(2004),19502000116348,[30](2006),,PolityV,-100;17;810[31],20(2005),,,,,:,,,,,,,,:(selfexpressionvalues),,,,[32](P259),,,,,,2080,:8185%,,,,20,:,,:,,:80,,[33](P58):,,,,30%,;45%,[34](P155)72,52%,80%[35](P158),:,?:,19871996,19871996,19871996,,,,:21GDP,:;;;;,,,:1986,1987,,,,,,,:,(1995),206070,,5819651980,,,[36](2003),:,,(),,:[37],,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,U,(2005),:?,,,,,,,[38](,P8),,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,22,1813,,113,103,,,,(Ortega)(Rodriguez)2006,,1959,,,:,,,,,,206070,,,,,GDP,,,,,,,,,,,,,?,,,,?,,,,,,,1950199018501990,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,:,,:,231960200079,,,,:,,,,,20,21,,50,,,,[1]AngusMaddisonMonitoringtheWorldEconomy,18201992OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,1995[2][3]SeymourLipsetSomeSocialRequisitesofDemocracyAmericanPoliticalScienceReview,1959,Vol53,No1[4]RobertJackmanOntheRelationofEconomicDevelopmenttoDemocraticPerformance.AmericanJournalofPoliticalScience,1973,Vol17,No3[5]KennethBollenPoliticalDemocracyandtheTimingofDevelopment.AmericanSociologicalReview,1979,Vol44,No4[6]RossBurkartandMichaelLewisBeckComparativeDemocracy:TheEconomicDevelopmentThesisAmericanPoliticalScienceReview,1994,Vol88,No4[7]RobertBarroDeterminantsofDemocracy.JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1999,Vol107,No6[8]DietrichRueschemeyer,EvelynStephens,JohnStephensCapitalistDevelopmentandDemocracyChicago:UniversityofChicago,1992[9][20]StephanHaggardandRobertKaufmanPoliticalEconomyofDemocraticTransitionsPrinceton:PrincetonUniversityPress,1995[10][36]EdwardMullerEconomicDeterminantsofDemocracyAmericanSociologicalReview,1995,Vol60,No6[11]BarrintonMooreTheSocialOriginsofDictatorshipandDemocracy:LordandPeasantintheMakingoftheModernWorldBoston:BeaconPress,1966[12]GregoryLuebbert,DavidCollierandSeymourLipsetLiberalism,FascismorSocialDemocracyOxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1991[13]GuillermoODonnellModernizationandBureaucraticAuthoritarianismBerkeley:UniversityofCaliforniaPress,1973[14][15][16][17]DankwartRustowTransitionstoDemocracy:TowardaDynamicModelComparativePolitics,1970,Vol2,No3[18]GuillermoODonnellandPhilippeSchmitterTransitionsfromAuthoritarianRule:TentativeConelusionsaboutUncertainDemocraciesBaltimore:JohnHopkinsUniversityPress,1986[19]JuanLinzandAlfredStepanProblemsofDemocraticTransitionandConsolidationBaltimore:JohnHopkinsUniversityPress,1996[21]ZehraAratDemoracyandEconomicDevelopment:ModernizationTheoryRevisitedComparativePolitics,1988,Vol21,No124[22]AxelHadenius,JanTeorellCulturalandEconomicPrerequisitesofDemocracyStudiesinComparativeInternationalDevelopment,2005,Vol39,No4[23][24][25]AdamPrzeworski,MichaelEAlvarez,JoseAntonioCheibubandFernandoLimongiDemocracyandDevelopmentCambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2000[28]CarlesBoixandSusanStokesEndogenousDemocratizationWorldPolitics,2003,Vol55,No4[26]CarlesBoixandSebastianRosatoACompleteDataSetofPoliticalRegimes,18001999Chicago:UniversityofChicago,2001[27]RobertSummersandAlanHestonThePennWorldTable:AnExpandedSetofInternationalComparisons,19501988QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1991,Vol106,No2[29][32][33][34][35]RonaldInglehartandChristianWelzelModernization,CulturalChangeandDemocracy:TheHumanDevelopmentSequenceNewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,2005[30]RyanKennedyReConceptualizingtheSocialRequisitesofDemocracyPaperPresentedattheAnnualMeetingoftheTheMidwestPoliticalScienceAssociation,2004[31]DavidEpstein,RobertBates,JackGoldstone,IdaKristensen,SharynOHalloranDemocraticTransitionsAmericanJournalofPoliticalScience,2006,Vol50,No3[37]CarlesBoixDemocracyandRedistributionCambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2003[38]DaronAcemogluandJamesRobinsonEconomicOriginsofDictatorshipandDemocracyCambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2005DoesEconomicDevelopmentLeadtoDemocratization?TheRise,DeclineandRevivaloftheModernizationTheoryLIUYu(DepartmentofPolitics,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084)Abstract:SincethepoliticalscientistLipsetraisedtheargumentthat/economicdevelopmentpromotesdemocratization0in1959,thisthesisha