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1/66分类号学号学校代码10487密级硕士学位论文并购中目标公司价值评估案例研究学位申请人：学科专业：工商管理指导教师：答辩日期：2011年12月ThesisSubmittedinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementsFortheDegreeofMasterofFinanceinEnterpriseAdministration2/66ValuationofTargetFirmsinMergersandAcquisitions:ACaseStudyCandidate:Major:EnterpriseAdministrationSupervisor:HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnologyWuhan,Hubei430074,P.R.ChinaApril,2011摘要3/66兼并和并购是可以使企业迅速获得成功的捷径之一，如今，在企业发展壮大过程中，兼并和并购已经成为最常用的方式。通过兼并企业可以超越对手获得竞争优势，获得更大的市场份额，进入更多领域的市场。企业也可藉此能提高管理运营效率，不仅提高了自己的竞争力，消费者也可获益。2011年5月10日微软公司（纳斯达克股票代码“MSFT”）与世界上最大的网络语音电话业务（ＶＯＩＰ）通讯公司ＳＫＹＰＥ公司联合宣布双方已经签署协议，微软公司将以８５亿美元现金的代价从银湖（ＳＩＬＶＥＲＬａｋｅ）等投资者手中收购ＳＫＰＹＥ公司。根据ＳＫＹＰＥ公司提交给证券交易所的报告，去年该公司营业额８．６亿美元，实现净利润２．６４亿美元，累计亏损６９０万美元。本论文论据架立在相关理论、理论性研究以及对未来不确定的假定之上。在分析贴现现金流模型和公司自由现金流模型(FCFF)的基础上，本文意图逐步分析ＳＫＰＹＥ公司的固有价值，因为这家公司是一个私人公司，无法获得某些至关重要的信息。假设未来5年内SKYPE公司营业额每年增长19%，在10年内逐渐降低到4%，那么该公司达到稳定期之后的营运利润将与行业平均水平（27.5%）持平。研究表明即便从非常乐观的角度去评判，微软公司付出的代价还是超过了SKPYE公司40亿美元的固有价值。本文研究了微软公司和SKYPE公司的协同增效价值，认为潜力巨大。本文没有注重采用传统的方式计算其协同价值，比如现金，税收优惠，财政协同价值等，因为这些方法不适合本案例。本文展望了微软公司将SKPYE整合进入微软的XBOX、KINECT、XboxLive,Window手机操作系统、Lync、Outlook等设备和系统之后的前景，微软将在Windows手机操作系统和Xbox&Kinect等两个市场有潜在机会。根据已有资料，本文同时对这些市场的前景进行了乐观地假设。关键词：合并与收购，内在价值，协同，Microsoft,Skype.4/66AbstractMergersandacquisitionshavebecomethemostpopularusedmethodsofgrowthforthecompanyandit’soneofthebestwaystomakeashortcuttogetthesuccess.Theycreatethelargerpotentialmarketshareandopenituptoamorediversifiedmarket,increasecompetitiveadvantageagainstcompetitors.Italsoallowsfirmstooperatemoreefficientlyandbenefitbothcompetitionandconsumers.OnMay10,2011–MicrosoftCorporation(Nasdaq:“MSFT”)andSkypeGlobalannouncedthattheyhaveenteredintoadealunderwhichMicrosoftwillacquireSkype,thelargestVoIPcommunicationcompany,for$8.5billionincashfromtheinvestorgroupledbySilverLake.Skyperevenuetotaling$860millionlastyearandoperatingprofitof$264million,thecompanylost$6.9millionoverall,accordingtodocumentsfiledwiththeSEC.Inthisthesis,solvingproblemsisbasedonrelevanttheories,theoreticalresearchaswellassomeassumptionsaboutfuturewithuncertainty.Basedontheliteraturereviewaboutdiscountedcashflowmodel,specificallyFreeCashFlowtoFirmmodel(FCFF),thepurposeofthethesisistoprovideananalysisofSkype’sintrinsicvaluewithspecificsteps.Especially,whenthecompanyyouwanttoanalyzeisaprivatecompanywithlackofassessingtoessentialorimportantinformation.Giventhatthecontinuedrevenuegrowthof19%willberemainedforthenext5yearsandslowingdowngraduallyto4%intenyears.TheoperatingmarginofSkype’sisgivenbeingequaltotheaverageindustry(27.5%)afterthecompanyreachestostablelevel.ResearchindicatesthatMicrosoftoverpaidfortheSkype’sintrinsicvaluewithevenaveryoptimisticviewofpoint.TheintrinsicvalueofSkypeisjustabout$4billion.ResearchwastoprovidethesynergyvaluebetweenMicrosoftandSkypeandrealizedthatit’skindofpromisinglypotential.Researchdidn’tfocusonthetraditionalwaystocalculatethesynergyvaluesuchasslackcash,taxbenefits,andfinancialsynergybecauseit’snotquiteappropriateforthiscasestudy.ThisstudyenvisionswhatwillhappenwhenSkypeintegratedintoMicrosoftdevicesandsystemsuchasXboxandKinect,XboxLive,theWindowPhoneoperatingsystem,LyncandOutlook.TherearetwopotentialopportunitiesforMicrosoftintheWindowPhoneandXbox&Kinectmarkets.Researchalsomadesomeassumptionsaboutwhatwillhappeninthesemarketswithoptimisticviewofpointbasedonsomeinformationavailable.Keywords:MergersandAcquisitions,IntrinsicValue,Synergy,Microsoft,Skype5/66TableofContents摘要..........................................................................................................2Abstract.......................................................................................................41Introduction...........................................................................................81.1Background.......................................................................................................81.2ResearchPurposesandSignificance..............................................................111.3ContentandMethodology..............................................................................132LiteratureReview...............................................................................192.1DiscountedCashflow.....................................................................................192.2SynergyValuation..........................................................................................222.3ExtantLiterature.............................................................................................233AnIntroductiontoSkypeandMicrosoft.........................................253.1BriefProfileofSkype.....................................................................................253.2BriefProfileofMicrosoft...............................................................................303.3M&AsProcess................................................................................................324IntrinsicValue.....................................................................................334.1CostofDebt......................