海外医药行业烈火见真金路遥力更足20191115兴业证券35页

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明海外研究行业深度研究报告证券研究报告＃industryId＃海外医药＃investSuggestion＃中性(＃investSuggestionChange＃维持）重点公司重点公司目标价评级中国生物制药13.0买入康哲药业10.3买入东阳光药61.0买入中国中药5.55买入石药集团20.0审慎增持绿叶制药10.0审慎增持先健科技3.0审慎增持三生制药17.0审慎增持＃relatedReport＃相关报告20181128《风雨前行，逆周期飞扬又一年》海外医药研究＃emailAuthor＃分析师：张忆东兴业证券经济与金融研究院副院长[e-mail]：BIS749SAC：S0190510110012＃assAuthor＃联系人：蔡莹琛[e-mail]：BLT552投资要点＃summary＃控费下整体增速放缓，精细化管理倒逼集中度提升：近几十年来我国老年人口占比持续上升，直接导致医疗需求的增加，进而造成医药卫生费用快速增长，给医保带来了较大的支付压力。为提高医保资金的使用效率，监管部门出台了多项重磅政策进行控费，导致医药行业整体增速放缓，对行业内部结构调整产生了深远影响，行业集中度逐步提升。创新成为唯一选择，产品门槛提升将强化集中趋势：在老龄化趋势难以逆转的前提下，我们认为医保控费、行业回归价值本源仍是未来十年乃至更长时间医药行业前进的方向，行业整合已然揭幕。在研发投入、在研产品数量、重磅产品储备等方面，头部药企均拥有明显优势，产品线有望不断扩充，维持业绩的可持续增长，扩大领先优势。我们继续推荐中国生物制药（1177.HK）、石药集团（1093.HK）、翰森制药（3692.HK）。CRO——受益于行业创新的紧迫感，景气度仍将持续：政策压力迫使药企加速转型，如加大新药研发力度、加快仿制药一致性评价等，这些都为CRO行业带来了发展契机，行业持续高景气。目前行业已经逐步进入整合阶段，药明生物（2269.HK）、药明康德（2359.HK）等头部公司在品牌、技术、人才等方面的领先优势有望进一步扩大。填补空白需求，国产品牌崛起，细分领域仍有高成长机会：1）疫苗：疫苗行业监管趋严，同时政策鼓励创新。康希诺生物（6185.HK）这一类罕有的生产流程规范、产品质量优良、有创新研发能力的疫苗企业有望在中国市场打造出可媲美进口品质的高性价比疫苗产品，填补差距。2）辅助生殖：中美渗透率差距大，国内市场正在兴起。锦欣生殖（1951.HK）借助先发优势、技术优势和规模优势有望持续领跑市场，成为广阔市场空间和高成长赛道的奔跑的龙头。3）骨科植入物：随着医保控费的持续和国产品牌影响力的提升，进口替代有望加速，爱康医疗（1789.HK）、春立医疗（1858.HK）等公司将受益。4）核医学：行业护城河较高，竞争格局良好，中国同辐（1763.HK）有望持续享受行业成长带来的红利。5）其他关注度相对较低的细分赛道龙头，如石四药（大输液）、中国中药（中药）、昊海生科（眼科产品）、亿胜生物科技（眼科产品）等，亦有望在本轮行业变革的浪潮中维持并扩大各自的领先优势，实现边际改善。风险提示：控费力度超预期，药品和医疗耗材降价幅度超预期，原材料和人力成本上升幅度超预期，国外产品进入中国市场进度超预期，人民币贬值。烈火见真金，路遥力更足＃createTime1＃2019年11月15日请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-海外行业深度研究报告EqualWeight（Maintained）[e-mail]：[e-mail]:S0190517070001SFC:BIS749Costcontrolofmedicalinsuranceleadstothehealthcareindustry’sgrowthratedroppingandconcentrationincreasing:InChina,healthcaredemandisgraduallyrisingduetotheincreasingratioofolderpeopleandcauseshealthexpendituremultiplying.Andincreasinghealthexpenditurebringspaymentpressuretomedicalinsurance.Toimprovetheefficiencyofmedicalinsurance,thegovernmenthasissuedseveralgroundbreakingpolicies,whichleadtothehealthcareindustry’sgrowthratedroppingandconcentrationincreasing.Higherthresholdresultsinthecontinuingincreaseofthepharmaceuticalindustryconcentration,andinnovationhasbeentheonlychoiceforpharmaceuticalcompanies:Webelievethattheratioofolderpeoplewillbehigherinthefuture,andcostcontrolofmedicalinsuranceisaninevitabletrendinthecomingtenyears.Theconsolidationofthepharmaceuticalindustryhasstartedandwillcontinue.BigPharmahasmoreproductiveandmoreinnovativeR&DpipelinesandhigherR&Dexpenselevelsthansmall/medium-sizepharmaceuticalcompanies,whichwillhelpthemexpandtheirproductpipelinesandmaintainahighrevenue/profitgrowthrate.WestillrecommendSinoBiopharm(1177.HK),CSPCPharma(1093.HK),andHansohPharma(3692.HK).CROsectorbenefitsfromthetransformationofthepharmaceuticalindustry.Itwillbestillinthehighdegreeoftheeconomy:PoliciesurgepharmaceuticalcompaniestospendmoreR&DexpensesforinnovationandstepuptheQualityConsistencyEvaluationforGenericDrugs.ThetransformingofthepharmaceuticalindustrybringsopportunitiestoCROcompanies,andtheCROsectorwillbestillinahighdegreeofeconomyinthefuture.TheconsolidationoftheCROsectorhasstarted.LeadingCROcompaniessuchasWuXiBiologics(2269.HK)andWuXiAppTec(2359.HK)havemoreadvantagesinbrand,technology,andemployee,andwillperformancebetterintheconsolidationoftheCROsector.Insomesub-sectors,domesticmedicalenterprisesgrowuprapidly,andwilldemonstratelotsofinvestmentopportunities.Vaccine:Thesupervisionofthevaccinesectorisbecomingstricterthanbefore,andpoliciessupportvaccineinnovation.CanSinoBIO(6185.HK)hasstandardizedproductionprocedures,high-qualityproducts,andstrongR&Dabilityandmaydevelopvaccineswithahighperformance-priceratiocomparedtoimportedvaccines.Assistedreproductiontechnologies(ART):AlthoughthereisabiggapbetweenChinaandtheUnitedStatesinthepenetranceofART,theChinesemarketsizeofARTexpandsrapidly.JinxinFertility(1951.HK)willbetheleaderoftheARTsectorinChinaanddevelopwiththesector’sexpansionthroughitsfirst-moveradvantage,technicalsuperiority,andscaleeconomics.Orthopedicimplantmaterials:Withthecostcontrolofmedicalinsurance,andimprovementofdomesticproducts’influence,themarketshareoflocalorthopedicimplantmaterialsgraduallygrowsbyreplacingimportedones.AKMedical(1789.HK)andChunliMedical(1858.HK)willbenefitfromtheprocessofreplacement.Nuclearmedicine:Barrierstoenteringthenuclearmedicinesectorishigh,sothecompetitionisnotsuchfierce.CIRC(1763.HK)willbenefitfromthegrowthoftheChinesenuclearmedicinemarket.Leadingenterprisesinothersub-sectorswithlittleattention,forexample,SSYGroup(2005.HK)(Largevolumeinjection),ChinaTCM(0570.HK)(TraditionalChinesemedicine),HaohaiBiologicalTechnology(6826.HK)(Ophthalmicproducts),EssexBio-technology(1061.HK)(Ophthalmicproducts),maygetmarginalimprovementinthereformationofthehealthcareindustry.Potentialrisks:1)Thestrengthofcostcontrolofmedicalinsurancemayextendthemarketexpectations;2)Theextentofthepricereductionofdrugsandmedicalconsumablesmayreachthemarketexpectations;3)Theincreaseofthepriceofrawmaterialsandexpense