海外医药行业风雨前行逆周期飞扬又一年20181128兴业证券45页

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-海外行业深度研究报告Overweight（Maintained）[e-mail]：[e-mail][e-mail]:S0190517070001SFC:BIS749Newpoliciescausenewmarketpatternsandnewdifferentiation.Withtherealizationof“universalcoverage”ofmedicalinsuranceandtheagingofthepopulation,thecostcontrolofmedicalinsuranceisaninevitabletrend.Inthefuture,drivenbyrefinedfeescontrolling,clinicalpathwaymanagement,drugratiocontrolling,andvolumeprocurement,thestructuraldifferentiationofthepharmaceuticalindustrywillbealong-termtrend.Thedifferencesbetweenproductswillbecomelargerandlarger,andthestructuralopportunitiesinpharmaceuticalswillbehighlighted.Despitechallengesanddifficulties,2018isstillayearofharvest.Theperformanceofthepharmaceuticalsectorhasincreasedfurtherin2018.Despitethepolicydisturbanceinthethirdquarter,theperformanceofmostcompaniesisstillinastablerange.Thisyear,listedpharmaceuticalcompanieshaveobtainedfruitfulnewdrugs,whichlaysthefoundationformedium-termgrowth.Thestockpriceofthesectorsinmedicaldevices,Chinesemedicines,pharmaceuticalcirculation,andCROperformedwell.However,thepharmaceuticalsectorandmedicalservicessectorbothfellabout20%,whichmeansthatthestockpriceandvaluationcontinuedtodifferentiateamongsectors.In2019,themedicalindustrywillstillbecountercyclicalandcontinuetogrow,andtherewillbestilllotsofinvestmentopportunitiesinthesub-sectors:Inthepharmaceuticalsector,underthegeneraltrendofcostcontrolofmedicalinsurance,theindustry'secologyisfacingreshaping.LeadingenterpriseswithR&Dstrengthandmulti-dimensionalcompetitiveadvantages,aswellassmallleadersthathavebuiltuniquebarriersinsegmentationfields,willcontinuetobestrongerandstronger.InthebiotechsectorandCROsector,innovativeunicornswillbehighlyregarded.Beforetheprofitisrealized,consideringthattheassumeddatainDCFmodelsdon’tcomefromfundamentalfactors,thestockpriceissubjecttoevent-driven,andthevolatilityishigh.TheCROindustrycontinuestobenefitfromthehighgrowthbroughtaboutbytheindustryboom.Inthecirculationsector,marginalimprovementhasstartedsincethethirdquarter.Theconcentrationofthesectorhascontinuallyincreasedunderthepolicytrend,andthescalebarriersofleadingenterprisesaresignificant.Inthemedicaldevicesector,domesticsubstitutionaccelerates,innovationandpricecutssubverttheindustrypattern,andtheoverallsectorisgrowing.IntheChinesemedicinesector,theformulaparticleshavemulti-dimensionaladvantagesovertraditionalformsofChinesemedicine,andthecoverageandpenetrationratewillincreasesteadily.Inthemedicalservicesector,structuralcontradictionsbetweensupplyanddemandaresharp,andwordofmouth,scale,andprecisemanagementarecorecompetitiveness.Investmentstrategyin2019:1)Becauseofsteadyperformanceandthedownsidevaluation,therearecurrentlycertainopportunitiesinleadingenterpriseswithR&Dstrengthandmulti-dimensionalcompetitiveadvantages.In2019,westillrecommendSinoBiopharm(1177)andCSPC(1093).2)Inadditiontothefirst-lineleadingenterprises,thesegmentalleadershavehighergrowthpotentialbybuildinghighbarriersthroughscaleeffect,brandadvantageandexclusiveproducts.WerecommendChinaTCM(570),Lifetech(1302),ChinaMedicalSystem(867),andHECPharma(1558).3)Theinnovationsectorwillstillbethehotspotforthenextyear.WerecommendfocussingonInnoventBio,BeiGene,andsoon.Inaddition,thevaluationofthemedicalservicesectorandtheChinesepatentmedicinesectorhavebeensluggishforalongtime.Oncethemarginalimprovementoftheindustrypolicyorthecompany'soperation,therewillbeahighprobabilityof“DavisDoublePlay”.Itisrecommendedtopayattentiontothesesectors.Potentialrisks:1)uncertaintyinthedirectionandimplementationofthepolicy;2)uncertaintyintheprogressandsuccessrateofnewproductdevelopment;3)anduncertaintyinmarketingafterapproving.ACountercyclicalIndustryGoingUpWithFluctuation11/28/2018请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-海外行业深度研究报告目录1新政策、新格局、新分化................................................................................-5-1.1药审改革：机构调整与人事变更不影响改革继续深化........................-5-1.2医保改革：药价与支付端集中管理，后续发展引人关注..................-10-1.3医疗改革：基药制度重振再出发，分级诊疗持续基层扩容..............-23-2风雨中前行，2018依旧是收获满满的一年.................................................-28-3行业展望..........................................................................................................-35-3.1制药：政策扰动中穿越前行，看好龙头和细分赛道强者...................-35-3.2生物板及CRO：CRO行业高成长带来高溢价，独角兽受事件驱动-36-3.3流通：边际改善持续，龙头占据绝对优势...........................................-37-3.4器械：国产替代加速，创新与降价颠覆行业格局...............................-38-3.5中药：配方颗粒仍是朝阳行业..............................................................-38-3.6医疗服务：口碑、规模、精细化管理为核心竞争力...........................-40-4投资策略..........................................................................................................-40-4.1白马是性价比高的确定性机会..............................................................-40-4.2细分行业高壁垒小龙头有望通过消除预期差贡献更大弹性...............-41-4.3创新板块仍是接下来一年的热点..........................................................-41-4.4关注低迷行业的边际变化.........................................................