瑞银美股通信行业通信与媒体调查结果显示出订阅疲劳20196325页

GlobalResearch3June2019Communications&MediaUBSEvidenceLabinside:SurveypointstosubscriptionfatigueandfurthervideoheadwindsKeyhighlightsfromlatestUBSEvidenceLabMediasurveyThelatestiterationoftheUBSEvidenceLabMediaConsumptionsurvey(raninApril/May'19)hadseveralkeyhighlights,incl:(1)Consumersareonlywillingtopayforafewonlinevideoservices,suggestingsubscriptionfatiguecouldbecomeafactorw/newDTClaunches;(2)20%ofrespondentsadmittopasswordsharing;(3)Cordcuttingintentionsremainelevatedandarenoticeablyhigherforyoungerdemos/streamers(consistentwithouranalysisofNielsondata);(4)Huluw/LiveTVandYoutubeTVremainthemostpopularStreamingTVservices;and(5)telcobroadbandcontinuestoseehigherswitchingintentthancableasconsumersdesirefasterspeeds.SubscriptionfatiguecouldbecomeafactorwithnewOTTvideolaunchesWithOTTservicesproliferating,thereisincreaseddebateoversubscriptionfatigue-oranaturallimittohowmanymonthlysubscriptionsconsumersarewillingtotakeon.Only13%ofrespondentsinthelatestsurveywerewillingtopayformorethan3OTTvideoservicesatonetime.Countertocurrentpractice,60%ofrespondentssaidtheyareunwillingtopay$50forALLvideocontent(Trad'lPayTV,SVOD,vMVPDs,DTC,etc.).Thiscouldchangeovertimebutsuggestsconsumerscouldlooktodropexistingsubscriptionswhenaddingnewservices,resultinginonlyahandfulofwinnersintheOTTvideospaceandanevenlargernumberofpotentiallosers.Cordcuttingintentremainselevated;BroadbandresultspositiveforcableCordcuttingintent(22%ofrespondents)remainedelevatedwithcostthemostcitedfactor.InterestinstreamingTVwasrelativelystable(~31%ofrespondents),withtheintenttodoubleuporkeepbothtrad'landstreamingTVlargelyunchanged(~60%ofstreamingTVsubsalsohadtrad'lTV).Cablebroadbandsatisfactionwasgenerallyaheadoftelcopeers.Nearly70%ofrespondentssaidtheywouldneeda50%discountormoretoacceptslowerHSDspeeds,alsoprovidingapositivereadforcable.Stockimplications:Furtherheadwindsformedia,mixedfordistributorsWithpromosrollingoffatAT&T,theHBOBlackoutatDISHandseasonalweakness,weexpectpayTVdeclinestoworsenin2Q.Thisoutlookhasunderpinnedourcautiousstanceonmedianamesw/highPayTVexposure(AMCX,DISCA,FOXA,VIAB).Fordistributors,DISHhasthehighestvideoexposurewhilecableisbetterpositionedw/~15%ofEBITDAfromvideoandstrongHSDpositioning.AT&Tgeneratesjust17%ofEBITDAfromPayTV(incl.Turner),despitegettingthemostattention.EquitiesAmericasTelecommunicationsJohnC.Hodulik,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]ChristopherSchoell,[e-mail][phone]CharlieCostanzo,CFA,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]Communications&Media3June20192ContentsSummaryofSurveyFindings........................................................................3Subscriptionfatigue:ConsumersonlywantafewOTTvideoservices..........4Cordcuttingintentremainselevated;Pricestillthefrustration.....................7InterestinStreamingTVstable...................................................................11Broadbandresultsstillconstructiveforcable..............................................16JohnC.Hodulik,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]ChristopherSchoell,[e-mail][phone]CharlieCostanzo,CFA,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]Communications&Media3June20193SummaryofSurveyFindingsUBSEvidenceLabconductedthelatestiterationoftheMediaConsumptionSurvey,whichsurveyed2,000consumersintheUS,aged18andaboveinApril/May2019.Thesampleisrepresentativeofthepopulationdistributionintermsofgender,age,geography,householdsizeandincome.Abreakdownofthe2,000respondentsbyvideoproviderisbelow:Figure1:#ofrespondentswiththefollowingtraditionalTVservicesFigure2:#ofrespondentswiththefollowingstreamingTVservices(notmutuallyexclusive)Source:UBSEvidenceLabSource:UBSEvidenceLabThesurveyaimstogaugethepaceofkeytrendsimpactingthecommunicationssectorsuchascordcutting,streamingTVadoptionandchangesinconsumerpreferences.Keytakeawaysforthevideomarketinclude:-Consumersareonlywillingtopayforafewonlinevideoservices,suggestingsubscriptionfatiguecouldoccur.Only13%ofrespondentswerewillingtopayformorethan3servicesatatime-Countertocurrentpractice,60%ofrespondentssaidtheyareunwillingtopay$50forALLvideocontent,includingtraditionalTV,livestreamingTVandsubscriptionvideoondemand.ThisiswellbelowaveragetraditionalvideoARPUof$90intheU.S.-20%ofrespondentsadmittopasswordsharing,with8%doingsodailyand7%doingsoweekly-Cordcuttingintentionsremainelevatedwit