平狄克微观经济学课件(英文)15

Fernando&YvonnQuijanoPreparedby:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets15CHAPTERCopyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.Chapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets2of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.CHAPTER15OUTLINE15.1StocksversusFlows15.2PresentDiscountedValue15.3TheValueofaBond15.4TheNetPresentValueCriterionforCapitalInvestmentDecisions15.5AdjustmentsforRisk15.6InvestmentDecisionsbyConsumers15.7InvestmentsinHumanCapital15.8IntertemporalProductionDecisions—DepletableResources15.9HowAreInterestRatesDetermined?Chapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets3of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.INVESTMENT,TIME,ANDCAPITALMARKETSCapitalisdurable:Itcanlastandcontributetoproductionforyearsafteritispurchased.Timeisanimportantelementinthepurchaseofcapitalgoods.Whenafirmdecideswhethertobuildafactoryorpurchasemachines,itmustcomparetheoutlaysitwouldhavetomakenowwiththeadditionalprofitthatthenewcapitalwillgenerateinthefuture.Tomakethiscomparison,itmustaddressthefollowingquestion:Howmucharefutureprofitsworthtoday?MostcapitalinvestmentdecisionsinvolvecomparinganoutlaytodaywithprofitsthatwillbereceivedinthefutureChapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets4of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.STOCKSVERSUSFLOWS15.1Capitalismeasuredasastock.Ifafirmownsanelectricmotorfactoryworth$10million,wesaythatithasacapitalstockworth$10million.Supposethefirmsells8000motorspermonthfor$52.50each.Averagevariablecostis$42.50perunit.Averageprofitis$52.50–$42.50=$10perunitandtotalprofitis$8,000permonth.Tomakeandsellthesemotors,afirmneedscapital—namely,thefactorythatitbuiltfor$10million.Thefirm’s$10millioncapitalstockallowsittoearnaflowofprofitof$80,000permonth.Wasthe$10millioninvestmentinthisfactoryasounddecision?Ifthefactorywilllast20years,thenwemustask:Whatisthevaluetodayof$80,000permonthforthenext20years?Ifthatvalueisgreaterthan$10million,theinvestmentwasagoodone.Is$80,000fiveyears—or20years—fromnowworth$80,000today?Moneyreceivedovertimeislessthanmoneyreceivedtodaybecausethemoneycanbeinvestedtoyieldmoremoneyinthefuture.Chapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets5of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PRESENTDISCOUNTEDVALUE15.2SupposetheannualinterestrateisR.Then$1todaycanbeinvestedtoyield(1+R)dollarsayearfromnow.Therefore,1+Rdollarsisthefuturevalueof$1today.Now,whatisthevaluetoday,i.e.,thepresentdiscountedvalue(PDV),of$1paidoneyearfromnow?$1ayearfromnowisworth$1/(1+R)today.Thisistheamountofmoneythatwillyield$1afteroneyearifinvestedattherateR.$1paidnyearsfromnowisworth$1/(1+R)ntoday●interestrateRateatwhichonecanborroworlendmoney.●presentdiscountedvalue(PDV)Thecurrentvalueofanexpectedfuturecashflow.23$1PDVof$1paidafter1year=(1)$1PDVof$1paidafter2years=(1)$1PDVof$1paidafter3years=(1)$1PDVof$1paidafternyears=(1)nRRRRWecansummarizethisasfollows:Chapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets6of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PRESENTDISCOUNTEDVALUE15.2Table15.1shows,fordifferentinterestrates,thepresentvalueof$1paidafter1,2,5,10,20,and30years.Notethatforinterestratesabove6or7percent,$1paid20or30yearsfromnowisworthverylittletoday.Butthisisnotthecaseforlowinterestrates.Forexample,ifRis3percent,thePDVof$1paid20yearsfromnowisabout55cents.Inotherwords,if55centswereinvestednowattherateof3percent,itwouldyieldabout$1after20years.Chapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets7of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PRESENTDISCOUNTEDVALUE15.2Whichpaymentstreaminthetableabovewouldyouprefertoreceive?Theanswerdependsontheinterestrate.ValuingPaymentStreams2$100PDVofStream$100(1)$100$100PDVofStream$20(1)(1)ARBRRForinterestratesof10percentorless,StreamBisworthmore;forinterestratesof15percentormore,StreamAisworthmore.Why?BecauseeventhoughlessispaidoutinStreamA,itispaidoutsooner.Chapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets8of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PRESENTDISCOUNTEDVALUE15.2Inthisexample,HaroldJenningsdiedinanautomobileaccidentonJanuary1,1996,attheageof53.ThePDVofhislostearnings,from1996untilretirementattheendof2003iscalculatedasfollows:whereW0ishissalaryin1996,gistheannualpercentagerateatwhichhissalaryislikelytohavegrown(sothatW0(1+g)wouldbehissalaryin1997,W0(1+g)2hissalaryin1998,etc.),andm1,m2,...,m7aremortalityrates,i.e.,theprobabilitiesthathewouldhavediedfromsomeothercauseby1997,1998,...,2003.Bysummingthelastcolumn,weobtainaPDVof$650,254.20102027077W(1)(1)W(1)(1)PDV=W(1)(1)W(1)(1)(1)gmgmRRgmRChapter15:Investment,Time,andCapitalMarkets9of34Copyright©2009PearsonEducation,Inc.PublishingasPrenticeHall•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.THEVALUEOFABOND1