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Fernando&YvonnQuijanoPreparedby:©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior5CHAPTERChapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior2of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.CHAPTER5OUTLINE5.1DescribingRisk5.2PreferencesTowardRisk5.3ReducingRisk5.4TheDemandforRiskyAssets5.5BehavioralEconomicsChapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior3of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior1.Inordertocomparetheriskinessofalternativechoices,weneedtoquantifyrisk.2.Wewillexaminepeople’spreferencestowardrisk.3.Wewillseehowpeoplecansometimesreduceoreliminaterisk.4.Insomesituations,peoplemustchoosetheamountofrisktheywishtobear.Inthefinalsectionofthischapter,weofferanoverviewoftheflourishingfieldofbehavioraleconomics.Sometimeswemustchoosehowmuchrisktobear.Chapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior4of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.DESCRIBINGRISK5.1Probability●probabilityLikelihoodthatagivenoutcomewilloccur.Subjectiveprobabilityistheperceptionthatanoutcomewilloccur.●expectedvalueProbability-weightedaverageofthepayoffsassociatedwithallpossibleoutcomes.ExpectedValue●payoffValueassociatedwithapossibleoutcome.Theexpectedvaluemeasuresthecentraltendency—thepayofforvaluethatwewouldexpectonaverage.Expectedvalue=Pr(success)($40/share)+Pr(failure)($20/share)=(1/4)($40/share)+(3/4)($20/share)=$25/shareE(X)=Pr1X1+Pr2X2E(X)=Pr1X1+Pr2X2+...+PrnXnChapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior5of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.DESCRIBINGRISK5.1Variability●variabilityExtenttowhichpossibleoutcomesofanuncertaineventdiffer.●deviationDifferencebetweenexpectedpayoffandactualpayoff.OUTCOME1OUTCOME2ProbabilityIncome($)ProbabilityIncome($)ExpectedIncome($)Job1:CommissionJob2:FixedSalary.5.99200015101000510.5.0115001500TABLE5.1IncomefromSalesJobsTABLE5.2DeviationsfromExpectedIncome($)Outcome1DeviationOutcome2DeviationJob1Job220001510500101000510-500-990Chapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior6of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.DESCRIBINGRISK5.1VariabilityOutcome1DeviationSquaredDeviationSquaredOutcome2DeviationSquaredWeightedAverageStandardDeviationJob1Job220001510250,0001001000510250,000980,100250,000990050099.5Table5.3CalculatingVariance($)OutcomeProbabilitiesforTwoJobsThedistributionofpayoffsassociatedwithJob1hasagreaterspreadandagreaterstandarddeviationthanthedistributionofpayoffsassociatedwithJob2.Bothdistributionsareflatbecausealloutcomesareequallylikely.Figure5.1Chapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior7of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.DESCRIBINGRISK5.1VariabilityUnequalProbabilityOutcomesThedistributionofpayoffsassociatedwithJob1hasagreaterspreadandagreaterstandarddeviationthanthedistributionofpayoffsassociatedwithJob2.Bothdistributionsarepeakedbecausetheextremepayoffsarelesslikelythanthosenearthemiddleofthedistribution.Figure5.2DecisionMakingTable5.4IncomesfromSalesJobs—Modified($)Outcome1DeviationSquaredDeviationSquaredOutcome2StandardDeviationExpectedIncomeJob1Job220001510250,0001001000510250,000980,10050099.516001500Chapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior8of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.5.1Finesmaybebetterthanincarcerationindeterringcertaintypesofcrimes,suchasspeeding,double-parking,taxevasion,andairpolluting.Otherthingsbeingequal,thegreaterthefine,themoreapotentialcriminalwillbediscouragedfromcommittingthecrime.Inpractice,however,itisverycostlytocatchlawbreakers.Therefore,wesaveonadministrativecostsbyimposingrelativelyhighfines.Apolicythatcombinesahighfineandalowprobabilityofapprehensionislikelytoreduceenforcementcosts.DESCRIBINGRISKChapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior9of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PREFERENCESTOWARDRISK5.2RiskAverse,RiskLoving,andRiskNeutralIn(a),aconsumer’smarginalutilitydiminishesasincomeincreases.Theconsumerisriskaversebecauseshewouldpreferacertainincomeof$20,000(withautilityof16)toagamblewitha.5probabilityof$10,000anda.5probabilityof$30,000(andexpectedutilityof14).Figure5.3Chapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior10of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PREFERENCESTOWARDRISK5.2RiskAverse,RiskLoving,andRiskNeutralIn(b),theconsumerisriskloving:Shewouldpreferthesamegamble(withexpectedutilityof10.5)tothecertainincome(withautilityof8).Finally,theconsumerin(c)isriskneutral,andindifferentbetweencertainanduncertaineventswiththesameexpectedincome.Figure5.3●expectedutilitySumoftheutilitiesassociatedwithallpossibleoutcomes,weightedbytheprobabilitythateachoutcomewilloccur.Chapter5UncertaintyandConsumerBehavior11of34©2008PrenticeHallBusinessPublishing•Microeconomics•Pindyck/Rubinfeld,7e.PREFERENCESTOWARDRISK5.2●riskaverseConditionofpreferringacertainincometoariskyincomewiththesameexpectedvalue.●riskneutralConditionofbeingin
本文标题:平狄克微观经济学课件(英文)05
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