JP摩根中国医疗保健行业中国医疗保健行业改善医疗的个人和公共措施2019323页

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Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.AsiaPacificEquityResearchMarch2019HealthcareLeonChik,CFAAC(852)28008590leon.hk.chik@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHealthcareChristineWang+85228008528christine.wang@jpmchase.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHealthcareAlexTso,CFA+85228000496Alex.tso@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHealthcareDavidLi(852)28008546david.xy.li@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHealthcareLingWang(852)28008599ling.wang@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHealthcareSherryYin(852)28008681sherry.yin@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedChinaHealthcareSectorPrivateandpublicmeasurestoimprovehealthcare2ToppicksinChinahealthcaresectorStockpicksToppicksTickerWuxiBiologics2269HKInnovent1801HKBeigene6160HK3SBio1530HKGenscript1548HKKeymessage:Weshouldseemorechangestothecentralprocurement(CP)ProgramastheNMPAassessestheoutcomesofthefirstbatchoftendereddrugsannouncedinDec2018.Thekeyfactorwouldbethequalityandavailabilityofdrugsatthemuchlowerpricesforthosedrugmakersthatwonthetenders.Ourviewisthatthereisstillsomeriskthattheprogramcanbeexpandedtootherdrugsin2019andthatitismorelogicaltoseethedevelopmentintheCPprogramoverthenextfewmonthsbeforewecanhavemoreclarityonthegenericmarket.Wesuggestlookingatcompanieswithinnovativeorbiologicaldrugs,whicharenotundertheCPprogramorthosewithastrongR&DandalargepipelineofinnovativedrugsKeyOWstocks:WuxiBiologics(2269HK),Innovent(1801HK),Beigene(6160HK/BGNEUS),3SBio(1530HK)andGenscriptBiotech(1548HK).Source:Bloomberg,J.P.Morgan3MarkethasdoubledigitgrowthpotentialSource:Beigenecompanyreports.PwCReportonGlobalPharmaceuticalTrend,IMSHealthdata,McKinseyIndustryReportChinaisthesecondlargestRxmarketintheworldwithgreatgrowthpotentialasmoreandmoredrugsareincludedintheNRDL4ChinahealthcareexpenditurestillhasroomtogrowSource:Frost&SullivanNationalHealthcareExpenditureasaPercentofGDP,20155MedicalinsuranceconstraintsSource:Frost&SullivanBreakdownoftotalhealthcareexpenditureinChina(2012-2026E)Deficittocomeasearlyas2020GrowingatCAGRof106%inthepast6years,Chinahasalreadybecomethesecondlargestprescriptionmarketintheworld.ThemonthlycostofoncologydrugsincludedintheNRDLthroughpricenegotiationhasincreasedfrommedianofUS$947in2012toaboutUS$2,141in2018.TheinclusionofmanyoncologydrugsispositivenewsforChinesepatientsbutwillcreatesignificantpressuretothepublicmedicalinsurance.Thegovernmentisdevisingmeasurestocutcostsofoldergenericdrugswhileincreasingnewdrugsintothereimbursementlist.6Matrixofkeyinvestmentfactorsforhealthcaresub-sectorsWehaveloweredourattractivenessratingfordiversifiedpharmaswithamajorityofsalesingenericdrugs(now8versus5inOct)duetotheuncertaintiesfromthecentralprocurementprogramonthepricingandmarginsofgenericdrugsBiologicalbusinessDemandgrowthMarginsDevelopmentriskPricingpowerInvestmentintensityRegulatoryPEG*LowHighBiotechinnovator1.52.0BrandedFTMbiosimilar1.31.5CDMO/CMO/CRO1.31.4Onlineservices/Telemedicine1.21.5Specialtyhospitals1.21.3Devices1.21.3TCM1.11.3Diversifiedpharmas0.91.2Marketing/in-licence0.91.1Distribution0.81.0GeneralHospitals0.81.0*RangeofreasonablePEGforprofitablecopmpanieswithalongtrackrecord(18PEover19EPSy/ygrowth*100)FavorableMildlyfavorableNeutralNotfavorableSource:J.P.Morgan7HealthcareframeworkSalesgrowthisakeyinvestmentcriteriaandsalesforceisalsoagoodgrowthindicatorInnovativetherapeutics(e.g.biologicaldrugs)havebetterpipelinesandhigherR&DspendingPricingpowerandmargins.Wealsolookatcompetitionasanimportantdriverforpricingpowerandmarginsandcompanieswithprotectionfromnewentrants(innovativedrugsandFTMbiosimilardrugsshoulddobetter).PEtogrowthisanindicatorofover/undervaluationGrowthandriskfactorsfordrugmakersSource:J.P.Morgan8Tentopthemesforhealthcare1.PoliciesandregulationsthatimproveaffordabilityandavailabilityofdrugsCentralprocurementimpactondrugprices*NMPA’sacceptanceofclinicaltrialdatafromoverseasNRDLinclusionandtheimpactontenderprices2.Policiesandregulationsthatpromoteaworld-classdomesticbiotechindustryNMPAchangesandimpactontheindustry*Vaccinequalityissueandtheimpactondrugmakers*ConsistencyevaluationofgenericdrugsCMO/CROoutsourcingpolicy/trendsinChina3.PoliciesandregulationsthatreducewasteandoptimizetheuseofpubliccoffersBudgetconstraintsandimpactondrugtendersDoubleinvoicesystemandthereductionofdistributionlayersZeromark-uppolicyonhospitaldisbursements*newlyintroducedin20189CentralProcurementCentralizedprocurement(CP)isnotanewpracticeinChina,buttheregulatoryrestructuringandestablishmentofStateMedicalInsuranceAdministration(SMIA)in2018makethis4+7CPmorepowerfulthanbefore.Consistingof31drugsandonlydrugsthatpasstheco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