JP摩根新兴市场投资策略新兴市场企业基本面审查目前还算健康201962726页

(1-212)[e-mail]-MyungHong(1-212)[e-mail](1-212)[e-mail]ge24foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.EMcorporatecreditmetricsstartedtheyearintiptopshape,havingreachedtheirbestlevelssinceatleast2012.Grossandnetleveragemoderated0.4xand0.3x,respectively,to2.4xand1.5xin2018whileinterestcoveragerose0.9xto7.4x.EMregionsmovedfurtheralongthecreditcycle,butremainedintheimprovingphaseorclosetopeak.Ourpreliminary1Q19LTMfiguresshowgrossandnetleveragerisingby0.1xvs2018to2.5xand1.6x,respectively,givensomepick-upindebtandmostlyflattop-linegrowth.Thissuggestswearestilltiptoeingaroundtherecentlyachieved‘bestinclass’metrics,butweseehurdlesforfurtherimprovements.Ourreservationsinthenear-termareprimarilyduetotherevenueside.Weexpectmodesttop-linegainsthisyearasglobalGDPgrowthappearstobeslowingandgiventwoback-to-backyearsofdouble-digitEMcorporaterevenuegrowth.Profitmarginsmayalsocomeunderpressure,giventhelimitedroomforfurthersavings/gainsinefficienciespostthoseachievedinrecentyears.Ondebtlevels,weexpectgrowthtoremainmutedassynchronizedeasingthatappearsforthcomingwouldkeepfinancingcostslow/stimulateLME,therebybalancingtheupsideriskforhigherinterestburden.Tepidglobalcapexgrowthmeansthatweshouldnotexpectsignificantpick-upindebt-fundedcapexwhichwhencombinedwithmutedchangesindebtservicingcostsshouldsupportcoverageratiosaroundcurrentlevels.Globalcomps:EMIGandHYnetleverageis1-2xlowerthanthatforDMcomparables,withthedifferentialatsomeofthewidestlevelsinrecentyears.Spreadperturnofnetleverage(STNL)declinedYTDacrosscreditmarketsasspreadlevelscompressedandfundamentalsremainedbalancedatbestordeterioratedatthemargin.WefindSTNLratioofEMIGtoUSIGofover2xasattractive.OnHYside,therehasbeenarelativeimprovement,butthepick-upversusDMremainssub-2x.Changesinaccountingstandardswithrespecttooperatingleasesarehavinganimpactoncreditmetrics.Weestimatethechangehasadded3%togrossdebtgrowthand0.1xtoEMcorporateleveragein1Q19,butweexcludethisadjustmentfromouroverallmetricstofacilitatehistoricalcomparisons.Notably,weexpecttheimpacttoincreasefurtherastheyearprogresses.ThecreditratingtrendforEMcorporateshasbeenunderpressuresincemid-2018,andwhileweexpectsomestabilization,netratingactionsarelikelytoremainnegativeduetoHYgiventheprospectsofslowergrowthanduncertaintyfromtradetensions.2GlobalCreditResearch27June2019AlisaMeyers(1-212)[e-mail]…fornowEMcorporatecreditmetricsstartedtheyearintiptopshape,havingreachedtheirbestlevelssinceatleast2012.Grossandnetleveragemoderated0.4xand0.3x,respectively,to2.4xand1.5xin2018.Thiswasdrivenbysolidandwidespreadrevenuegains,higherEBITDAmargins,lowerdebtlevelsandmateriallymorerobustinterestcoverage.CommodityandrelatedsegmentsstilldeliveredthemostimprovementsfromYE2017,withleveragedown0.5-0.7x.Otherexporterssuchaspulp&paperalsohadstrongresults.Elsewhere,therealestatesegmentalsohadastrongshowing(leverage-0.5xin2018),althoughweexcludethissegmentfromaggregatemetricsasit’sabitmorebackwardlookingthanforothersegments.Overall,EMregionsmovedfurtheralongthecreditcycle,butremainedintheimprovingphaseorclosetopeak.With65%ofcompaniesinourdatasethavingreported1Q19metrics,weseesometiptoeingaroundtherecentlyachieved‘bestinclass’metrics.Nevertheless,weseehurdlesforfurtherimprovements.Ourpreliminary1Q19LTMfiguresshowgrossandnetleveragerisingby0.1xvs2018levelsto2.5xand1.6x,respectively,givensomepick-upindebtandmostlyflattop-linegrowth.Notably,thesefiguresdonotyetincorporatethenewaccountingstandardsIFRS16/ASC842inordertofacilitateadequateyear-over-yearcomparisons.WeprovidemoredetailsontheimpactofthenewaccountingstandardsonfundamentalmetricsinAppendixB,butthebottomlineisthatthenewaccountingstandardswouldhavenegativeimpactontheappearanceofcreditmetrics,withgrossdebtincrementally3%higher,resultingin0.1xhighergrossleverage.Figure1:EMcorporatesmostlyremainintheimprovingstageofthecreditcycleSource:J.P.MorganInthisreport,weanalyzeearningsfor323EMcorporates,excludingfinancialsand100%quasi-sovereigns.Thedatapresentedherereflectsprovisional1Q19earningsmetrics(utilizingavailabledatafromquarterlyreportersand2018figureselsewhere).Allhistoricaldataisbasedontoday’scompositionoftheassetclasswhichmeansitmaydeviatefromdatapublishedinpriorreports.3GlobalCreditResearch27June2019AlisaMeyers(1-212)[e-mail]?Ourfeelingthatthismaybethe‘top’forEMcorporatefundamentalsinthenear-termisprimarilyduetotherevenueside.Weexpectmodesttop-linegainsthisyearasglobalgrowthappearstobeslowingandgiven