JP摩根美股医疗保健行业生命科学与诊断生物工艺深度研究202019432页

LIFESCIENCETOOLS&DIAGNOSTICSBioprocessingDeepDive2.0Seetheendpagesofthispresentationforanalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.NorthAmericaEquityResearchApril2019LifeScienceTools&Diagnostics,C[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]@[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]PortfolioManager’sSummaryCDMOs(CTLT,LONN,SamsungBiologics,TMO)CapacitySupply&DemandOutsourcingTrend&ThreatfromExcessIn-houseCapacityBiosimilarImpactonVolumes&OutsourcingPricingTrendTopPlayers&CompetitivePositioningEquipmentVendors(DHR,GE,MRK,RGEN,SRT,TMO)TechnologyTrends(Sing-useAdoption,KeyAreasforFutureInnovation)CompetitiveLandscape&VendorPositioninginKeyAreasPricingTrendIndustryConsolidation&ThoughtsonDHR/GEDeal356121417182021232526Appendix&[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]PORTFOLIOMANAGER’[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]PortfolioManager’sSummaryCapacitysupply&demand:Recentcapacityexpansionswerereactivetoastrongpipeline,withmostlarge-scalebuildsinEuropeandAsiaWhilethesupply/demandgaphasbeenclosedfortraditionalbiologics,demandtocontinueDDgrowthinthemediumtermAsignificantcapacitycrunchexistsforcell/genetherapyCDMObacklogremainselevated,andutilizationwillsteadilyincrease.Overcapacityriskisidiosyncratic(i.e.Samsung)Single-usetechnologies(SUT)makeovercapacityconcernslessrelevantOutsourcingtrends:OutsourcingratereachedahistoricalhighlastyearExcessin-housecapacityisunlikelytoposeameaningfulthreatBiosimilarimpact:WiththemAbpipelinematuring,biosimilarspresentthenextpotentialsourceofgrowth(25%CAGR)U.S.pharmacautiousaboutin-houseinvestmentforbiosimilars,apositiveforCDMOsBiosimilarscouldsee60%outsourcingrate,2xcurrentlevelsPricingtrends:Commercial-scalepricingsupportedbycontrolledcapacitysupplyandlong-termcontracts,whileclinical-scalepricingcouldbepressuredbynewcapacitybasedoncheaperSUTBiosimilarscoulddrivelowerpricing,butCDMOmarginsshouldremainsupportedStock-specificimplications:CDMOswithleadingSUTcapacityarebestpositionedforbioprocessing(WuXi,TMO/PTHN,LONN,CTLT)LONN,TMO/PTHNandBINGbestpositionedforbiosimilarsTMOnowwellpositionedforcell/genetherapyfollowingBrammerBioacquisition(seeourthoughtsonthedealhere)KeyTakeawaysTechnologytrends:Single-useequipmentsalestogrowat+26%CAGRandreach~30%oftotalequipmentmarketinfiveyearsContinuousdownstreamprocessing(relevantforDHR,GE,MRK)isakeyareaforfutureinnovation,butindustryadoptionwilllikelybeslowDigitizationandautomationisanotherfocusareaseeinglotsofpartnerships/tuck-inacquisitionsCompetitivelandscapeandvendorpositioning:Allfiveleadingvendorshavebroadportfolios,andtheindustryistrendingtowardone-stop-shop,buteachvendorstillhasadifferentfocus/strengthGE’sstrengthinSUTislikelyunderappreciatedDHR/PLLwellpositionedforcell&genetherapyRGENhas40%shareinprepackedchromatographycolumnsPricingtrends:HighlydifferentiatedproductssupportfavorablepricingtrendSUTbringsstickyconsumablerevenuewithattractivemarginsExpectminimalimpactfromdrugpricingpressureIndustryconsolidation:Expectcontinuedindustryconsolidationduetosignificantadvantageofone-stop-shopofferingsFuturebioprocessingworkflowincreasessynergybetweenprocessingequipmentandanalyticalinstrumentsStock-specificimplications:DHR&TMOshouldcontinuetoseeabove-marketgrowthwiththeirbroadestscopeofportfolioDHRshouldalsoseemeaningfulupsidefromGEsynergiesandPLL’sstrongpositioningforcell/genetherapyAlsolikeRGENformarketleadershipinselectapplicationsCDMOs(CTLT,LONN,SamsungBiologics,TMO/PTHN,WuXiBiologics)EquipmentVendors(DHR,GE,MRK,RGEN,SRT,TMO)Formoreindustrybackground,pleaserefer[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]+121