德意志银行中国医疗保健ChinaHealthcareMonthlyHospitalRxTracker

17July2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareHealthCarePharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyIndustryUpdateAsiaChinaHongKongIndustryChinaHealthcareDate17July2017DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMonthlyHospitalRxTracker,May2017GrowthimprovesinMayHospitalRxdatasuggestthatgrowthoftotalhospitaldrugssaleswas4.7%,-1.3%,1.4%and7.3%inMay'17,Apr'17,1Q17and2016.Mostflagshipdrugspickedup,andnewdrugssuchasAiTan(Apatinib)grewsteadily.Hengrui'sAiTanandKaiTeLi,SBP'sRunzhong,3SBio'sEPIAOandTPIAOandCSPC'sNBPrecordedgrowthof129%,13%,4%,-4%,12%and13%inQTD2Q17vs.162%,23%,12%,-5%,2%and17%in1Q17and637%,25%,26%,5%,33%and33%in2016.Forourtoppickslist,weaddSinoBiopharmduetomid/long-termgrowthprospects;wetakeCBPOoffduetonear-termconcerns.Hengrui:NewdrugAiTan(Apatinib)deliversstronggrowthThesalesgrowthofflagshipproductsAiTan,AiLi,AiSu,AiHeng,theatracuriumseriesandKaiTeLiwas129%,16%,-1%,1%,8%and13%inQTD2Q17vs.162%,12%,-3%,-2%,5%and23%in1Q17and637%,13%,4%,0%,5%and25%in2016.Ona3-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthforAiLiandAiSuwas10%and-4%inQTD2Q17vs.12%and-3%in1Q17and15%and6%in12M16.SBP:Runzhongpicksup;KaifensolidMajordrugsRunzhong,Ganmei,KaishiandKaifenregisteredgrowthof4%,0%,-12%and16%inQTD2Q17vs.12%,-1%,-8%and25%in1Q17and26%,1%,-1%and31%in2016.Ona3-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthofRunzhongandGanmeiwas6%and-1%inQTD2Q17vs.11%and-4%in1Q17and34%and5%in12M16.3SBio:Yisaipuflat;SEPOkeepsgrowthmomentumGrowthforEPIAOandTPIAOreached-4%and12%inQTD2Q17vs.-5%and2%in1Q17and5%and33%in2016.Yisaipu'sgrowthwasflatinQTD2Q17vs.-6%in1Q17and2%in2016.SEPOdelivereddecentgrowthof63%YoYinQTD2Q17,comparedwith37%in1Q17.CSPC:OncologyfranchisecontinuesrobustgrowthFlagshipproductsNBP,XuanningandOulaininggrew13%,2%and-8%inQTD2Q17vs.17%,-1%and-13%in1Q17and33%,6%and4%in2016.OncologydrugsDuomeisuandJinyoulicontinuedrobustgrowthat37%and95%inQTD2Q17,vs.44%and91%in1Q17and120%and180%during2016.Ona3-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthofNBPandOulainingwas12%and-12%inQTD2Q17vs.20%and-11%in1Q17and36%and8%in12M16.JackHu,PhDResearchAnalyst+852-22036208LincYiuResearchAssociate+852-22036248ToppicksHengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY48.71BuySinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK),HKD6.91BuyUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD6.20BuySource:DeutscheBankDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:17/07/201706:48:09GMT0bed7b6cf11c17July2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareTotalhospitaldrugsalesUp4.7%YoYinMayTotalhospitaldrugsalesgrew4.7%YoYinMayvs.-1.3%,1.4%,and7.3%inApr'17,1Q17,andFY16.Onaquarterlybasis,totaldrugsalesregisteredgrowthof1.4%,6.2%,5.1%,and6.7%during1Q17,4Q16,3Q16,and2Q16.Figure1:Totalhospitaldrugsales(January2014–May2017)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530TotalhospitaldrugsalesYoYgrowthRMBbnSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong17July2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFlagshipdrugdataWesummarizethegrowthdetailsoftheflagshipproductsof13drugcompaniesinthefollowingtables.Wecautioninvestorsthatmonthlysalesdataissubjecttoseasonality,andfirstquarterdataislikelyimpactedbytheCNYeffect.Hengrui(600276.SS)■OncologydrugsAiTan(Apatinib),AiSu(Docetaxel),AiLi(Irinotecan),andAiHeng(Oxaliplatin)grew129%,-1%,16%,and1%inQTD2Q17vs.162%,-3%,12%,and-2%in1Q17and637%,4%,13%,and0%in2016.■AnestheticdrugsKaiTeLi(Sevoflurane)andIoversol’sgrowthdeceleratedto13%and12%inQTD2Q17vs.23%and22%in1Q17and25%and18%in2016.Figure2:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiTan0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%024681012141618AiTanYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure3:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiSu-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070AiSuYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure4:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiLi-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05101520253035AiLiYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure5:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiHeng-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202530AiHengYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage317July2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFigure6:Three-monthrollingaverageforAtracuriumseries0%5%10%15%20%25%0102030405060AtracuriumseriesYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure7:Three-monthrollingaverageforLoversol0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0102030405060IoversolYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure8:Three-monthrollingaverageforKaiTeLi0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05101520253035404550KaiTeLiYoYgrowthRMBmSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage4DeutscheBankAG/HongKong17July2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFigure9:GrowthsummaryforHengrui(January2015–May2017)DrugnameMonthlyJan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-