德意志银行中国医疗保健行业ChinaHealthcareMonthlyHospitalRxTrack

16August2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareHealthCarePharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyIndustryUpdateAsiaChinaHongKongIndustryChinaHealthcareDate16August2017DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMonthlyHospitalRxTracker,June2017GrowthmoderationinJuneTotalhospitaldrugssalesgrew2.1%,1.8%and7.3%in2Q17,1Q17and2016.OncologydrugssuchasAiTan(Apatinib)remainedourfocusandmaintainedstronggrowthmomentumin2Q17.Hengrui'sAiTanandKaiTeLi,SBP'sRunzhong,3SBio'sEPIAOandTPIAOandCSPC'sNBPrecordedgrowthof121%,16%,5%,-8%,12%and16%in2Q17vs.164%,25%,11%,-4%,3%and18%in1Q17and637%,25%,26%,5%,33%and33%in2016.However,wecautioninvestorsthattheaforementioneddatamightbeselectivelyindicativeonlyforcorrelationwithreporteddata.Hengrui:NewdrugAiTan(Apatinib)outstandingThesalesgrowthofflagshipproductsAiTan,AiLi,AiSu,AiHeng,theatracuriumseriesandKaiTeLiwas121%,15%,3%,0%,9%and16%in2Q17vs.164%,13%,-2%,-1%,6%and25%in1Q17and637%,13%,4%,0%,5%and25%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthforAiLiandAiSuwas13%and-1%in2Q17vs.12%and-3%in1Q17and15%and6%in12M16.SBP:Runzhongpickedup;KaifenremainssolidGrowthofmajordrugsRunzhong,Ganmei,KaishiandKaifenreached5%,0%,-12%and16%in2Q17vs.11%,0%,-7%and25%in1Q17and26%,1%,-1%and31%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofRunzhongandGanmeiwas6%and1%in2Q17vs.10%and-3%in1Q17and34%and5%in12M16.3SBio:Yisaipuflat;SEPOcontinuedstronggrowth3SBiorecordedgrowthforEPIAOandTPIAOat-8%and12%in2Q17vs.-4%and3%in1Q17and5%and33%in2016.Yisaipu'sgrowthwasflatin2Q17vs.-5%in1Q17and2%in2016.SEPOdelivereddecentgrowthof72%YoYin2Q17,comparedwith38%in1Q17.CSPC:OncologyfranchiseintactFlagshipproductsNBP,XuanningandOulaininggrew16%,-1%and-7%in2Q17vs.18%,-1%and-12%in1Q17and33%,6%and4%in2016.OncologydrugsDuomeisuandJinyoulicontinuedrobustgrowthat49%and99%in2Q17,vs.46%and91%in1Q17and120%and180%during2016.Ona3-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthofNBPandOulainingwas15%and-9%in2Q17vs.21%and-10%in1Q17and36%and8%in12M16.JackHu,PhDResearchAnalyst+852-22036208ToppicksHengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY54.52BuySinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK),HKD6.71BuyUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD6.21BuySource:DeutscheBankDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:15/08/201718:52:47GMT0bed7b6cf11c16August2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareTotalhospitaldrugsalesUp1.8%YoYinJuneTotalhospitaldrugsalesgrew1.8%YoYinJunevs.2%and7.3%inYTD5m17andFY16.Onaquarterlybasis,totaldrugsalesregisteredgrowthof2.1%,1.8%,6.2%and5.1%during2Q17,1Q17,4Q16and3Q16.Figure1:Totalhospitaldrugsales(January2014–June2017)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530TotalhospitaldrugsalesYoYgrowthRMBbnSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong16August2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFlagshipdrugdataWesummarizethegrowthdetailsoftheflagshipproductsof13drugcompaniesinthefollowingtables.Wecautioninvestorsthatmonthlysalesdataissubjecttoseasonality,andfirstquarterdataislikelyimpactedbytheCNYeffect.Hengrui(600276.SS)■OncologydrugsAiTan(Apatinib),AiSu(Docetaxel),AiLi(Irinotecan),andAiHeng(Oxaliplatin)grew121%,3%,15%,and0%in2Q17vs.164%,-2%,13%,and-1%in1Q17and637%,4%,13%,and0%in2016.■AnestheticdrugsKaiTeLi(Sevoflurane)andIoversol’sgrowthdeceleratedto16%and16%in2Q17vs.25%and22%in1Q17vs.25%and18%in2016.Figure2:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiTan0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%02468101214161820AiTanYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure3:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiSu-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070AiSuYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure4:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiLi-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05101520253035AiLiYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure5:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiHeng-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202530AiHengYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage316August2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFigure6:Three-monthrollingaverageforAtracuriumseries0%5%10%15%20%25%0102030405060AtracuriumseriesYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure7:Three-monthrollingaverageforLoversol0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0102030405060IoversolYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure8:Three-monthrollingaverageforKaiTeLi0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05101520253035404550KaiTeLiYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage4DeutscheBankAG/HongKong16August2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFigure9:GrowthsummaryforHengrui(January2015–June2017)DrugnameMonthlyJan-16Feb-16Mar-16Apr-16May-16Jun-16Jul-16Aug-16Sep-16Oct-16Nov-16Dec-16AiTan4523%1019%1861%3042%2301%4440%1762%1422%731%495%289%111%Jan-17Feb-17Mar-17A