搜索
17October2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareHealthCareHealthCareIndustryUpdateAsiaChinaHongKongIndustryChinaHealthcareDate17October2017DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMonthlyHospitalRxTracker,August2017GrowthmoderationinAugust;mixedresultsforflagshipdrugsTotalhospitaldrugssalesgrew1.9%YoYinAugust17,vs.1.7%/1.9%/7.3%inJuly/1H17/2016.GrowthofoncologydrugssuchasAiTan(apatinib)andDuomeisuwasrobustinAugust.Hengrui'sAiTanandKaiTeLi,SBP'sRunzhong,3SBio'sEPIAOandTPIAOandCSPC'sNBPrecordedgrowthof83%,-17%,-1%,-12%,20%and16%inAugust,vs.128%,-13%,-3%,-18%,16%and7%inJuly,vs.138%,20%,8%,-6%,8%and17%in1H17,vs.637%,25%,26%,5%,33%and33%in2016.However,wecautioninvestorsthattheaforementioneddatamightbeselectivelyindicativeonlyforcorrelationwithreporteddata.Hengrui:apatinibgrewstrongly,whileKaiTeLislowedSalesofAiTan,AiLi,AiSu,AiHeng,theatracuriumseriesandKaiTeLigrew83%,20%,12%,-5%,4%and-17%YoYinAugust,vs.128%,16%,0%,-1%,8%and-13%inJuly,vs.138%,14%,1%,0%,7%and20%in1H17,vs.637%,13%,4%,0%,5%and25%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthforAiLiandAiSuwas15%and6%in3MAug17,vs.12%and-2%in1H17.SBP:Runzhongflat;KaifensolidGrowthofmajordrugsRunzhong,Ganmei,KaishiandKaifenstoodat-1%,2%,-18%and22%inAugust17,vs.-3%,-6%,-18%and21%inJuly,vs.8%,0%,-10%and20%in1H17,vs.26%,1%,-1%and31%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofRunzhongandGanmeiwas1%and-2%in3MAug17,vs.8%and-1%in1H17.3SBio:Yisaipugrowthaccelerated;SEPOcontinuedrobustgrowth3SBio:increasingpricetargettoHKD15.1;risksWeincreaseourpricetargettoHKD15.1fromHKD13.5,basedon28x2018EEPSofHKD0.54(vs.25xweusedpreviously).Webelieve28xisjustified,asitsHKlistedpeersaretradingat20xwith20%EPSgrowthin2018E(vs.the28%wemodelfor3SBio).Webelieveapremiumisdeserved,givenupsidefromtheNRDLrevision,aswellaslimitedpricingpressure.Risksincludepricecutsanddelaysinproductlaunches.GrowthofEPIAOandTPIAOrecoveredto-12%and20%inAugust,vs.-18%and16%inJuly,vs.-6%and8%in1H17,vs.5%and33%in2016.Yisaipu'sgrowthacceleratedto12%YoYinAugust,vs.2%/-2%/2%inJuly/1H17/2016.SEPOdeliveredstronggrowthof80%YoYinAugust,vs.76%/57%inJuly/1H17.CSPC:oncologyfranchiseledthegrowthFlagshipproductsNBP,OulainingandXuanninggrew16%,-11%,and-1%inAugust,vs.7%,-7%and-4%inJuly,vs.17%,-9%and-1%in1H17,vs.33%,4%and6%in2016.OncologydrugsDuomeisuandJinyouligrewstronglyby57%and116%YoYinAugust,vs.70%and102%inJuly,vs.48%and96%in1H17,vs.120%and180%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofNBPandOulainingwas15%and-8%in3MAug17,vs.18%and-10%in1H17.JackHu,PhDResearchAnalyst+852-22036208MeganXuResearchAssociate+852-22035928KeyChangesCompanyTargetPriceRating1530.HK13.50to15.10-Source:DeutscheBankToppicksHengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY63.02BuySinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK),HKD8.88BuyUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD6.80BuySource:DeutscheBankDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.THECONTENTMAYNOTBEDISTRIBUTEDINTHEPEOPLE'SREPUBLICOFCHINA(THEPRC)(EXCEPTINCOMPLIANCEWITHTHEAPPLICABLELAWSANDREGULATIONSOFPRC),EXCLUDINGSPECIALADMINISTRATIVEREGIONSOFHONGKONGANDMACAU.Distributedon:17/10/201705:48:10GMT0bed7b6cf11c17October2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareTotalhospitaldrugsalesUp1.9%YoYinAugustTotalhospitaldrugsalesgrew1.9%YoYinAugustvs.1.7%,1.9%and7.3%inJuly,1H17andFY16,respectively.Onaquarterlybasis,totaldrugsalesregisteredgrowthof2.1%,1.8%,6.2%and5.1%during2Q17,1Q17,4Q16and3Q16.Figure1:Totalhospitaldrugsales(January2014–August2017)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530TotalhospitaldrugsalesYoYgrowthRMBbnSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong17October2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFlagshipdrugdataWesummarizethegrowthdetailsoftheflagshipproductsof13drugcompaniesinthefollowingtables.Wecautioninvestorsthatmonthlysalesdataaresubjecttoseasonality,andfirstquarterdataarelikelyimpactedbytheCNYeffect.Hengrui(600276.SS)■OncologydrugsAiTan(apatinib),AiSu(docetaxel),AiLi(irinotecan),andAiHeng(oxaliplatin)continuedtheirrecentgrowthtrendandrecordedYoYgrowthof83%,12%,20%,and-5%inAugust17,vs.128%,0%,16%,and-1%inJuly17,vs.138%,1%,14%,and0%in1H17,vs.637%,4%,13%,and0%in2016.■AnestheticdrugsKaiTeLi(sevoflurane)andIoversolgrew-17%/9%inAugust,vs.-13%/12%inJuly,vs.20%/19%in1H17,vs.25%/18%in2016.Figure2:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiTanFigure3:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiSu0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%0510152025AiTanYoYgrowth-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070AiSuYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure4:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiLiFigure5:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiHeng-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05101520253035AiLiYoYgrowth-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202530AiHengYoYgrowthSource