德银中国医疗保健市场10月月度医院处方药追踪2017121832页

18December2017HealthCareChinaHealthcareHealthCareHealthCareForecastChangeAsiaJapanIndustryChinaHealthcareDate18December2017DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMonthlyHospitalRxTracker,October2017WeaksalesinOctober;selectivedrugsoutperformedTotalhospitaldrugsalesdropped2.4%YoYinOctober17,vs.2.6%/7.3%growthinYTD9m17/2016.GrowthofoncologydrugsAiTan(apatinib)andDuomeisuremainedsolidat19%and103%YoYrespectivelyinOct,vs.80%and61%in3Q17.FlagshipdrugsKaiTeLi,Runzhong,EPIAO,TPIAOandNBPgrew-3%,-7%,-24%,55%and20%YoYinOct,vs.-8%,-1%,-14%,26%and15%in3Q17,vs.21%,9%,-6%,9%and18%in1H17,andvs.25%,26%,5%,33%and33%in2016.Hengrui:apatinibsolid;KaiTeLilaggedSalesofAiTan,AiLi,AiSu,AiHeng,theatracuriumseriesandKaiTeLigrew19%,2%,-3%,-4%,-6%and-3%YoYrespectivelyinOct,vs.80%,20%,10%,-2%,10%and-8%in3Q17,vs.141%,15%,1%,0%,8%and21%in1H17,andvs.637%,13%,4%,0%,5%and25%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthforAiLiandAiSuwas15%and9%inOct,vs.18%and8%in3Q17,vs.13%and-1%in1H17,andvs.15%and6%in12M16.SBP:Runzhongdeclined;KaifensloweddownSalesgrowthofRunzhong,Ganmei,KaishiandKaifenregistered-7%,-4%,-20%and12%YoYrespectivelyinOct,vs.-1%,-2%,-14%and21%in3Q17,vs.9%,0%,-9%and21%in1H17,andvs.26%,1%,-1%and31%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofRunzhongandGanmeiwas-2%inOct,vs.2%and-1%in3Q17,vs.8%and-1%in1H17,andvs.34%and5%in12M16.3SBio:growthofYisaipuandSEPOacceleratedEPIAOandTPIAOgrew-24%and55%YoYrespectivelyinOct,vs.-14%and26%in3Q17,vs.-6%and9%in1H17,andvs.5%and33%in2016.GrowthofYisaipuacceleratedto19%YoYinOct,vs.9%/-2%/2%in3Q17/1H17/2016.SEPOkeptstronggrowthmomentumandgrew93%YoYinOct,vs.79%/7%in3Q17/1H17.CSPC:oncologyfranchisegrewsubstantiallyValuationandrisksDuetorecentsectorre-rating,weadjustourTPsforSBPandFosun,asspecifiedintheValuationandRiskssection.Risksvarybycompanyandmayincluderegulatorydelays,pricecuts,executionrisketc.FlagshipproductsNBP,OulainingandXuanninggrew20%,-19%and6%YoYrespectivelyinOct,vs.15%,-10%,and-2%in3Q17,vs.18%,-9%and0%in1H17,andvs.33%,4%and6%in2016.OncologydrugsDuomeisuandJinyoulicontinuedtodeliverstronggrowthof103%and112%YoYrespectivelyinOct,vs.61%and117%in3Q17,vs.48%and96%in1H17,andvs.120%and180%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofNBPandOulainingJackHu,Ph.D.ResearchAnalyst+852-22036208MeganXuResearchAssociate+852-22035928KeyChangesCompanyTargetPriceRating1177.HK13.00to14.70-2196.HK39.20to42.80-600196.SS33.50to36.60-Source:DeutscheSecuritiesInc.ToppicksSinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK),HKD12.22BuyUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD7.27BuyJointownPharmaceuticals(600998.SS),CNY19.06BuySource:DeutscheSecuritiesInc.DeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:17/12/201718:15:13GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa18December2017HealthCareChinaHealthcarewas19%and-14%inOct,vs.16%and-7%in3Q17,vs.18%and-10%in1H17,andvs.36%and8%in12M16.Page2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong18December2017HealthCareChinaHealthcareTotalhospitaldrugsalesDown2.4%YoYinOctoberTotalhospitaldrugsalesdeclined2.4%YoYinOctobervs.2.6%inYTD9m17and7.3%inFY16,respectively.Onaquarterlybasis,totaldrugsalesregisteredgrowthof3.3%,2.6%,1.8%and6.2%during3Q17,2Q17,1Q17and4Q16.Figure1:Totalhospitaldrugsales(January2014–October2017)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530TotalhospitaldrugsalesYoYgrowthRMBbnSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage318December2017HealthCareChinaHealthcareFlagshipdrugdataWesummarizethegrowthdetailsoftheflagshipproductsof13drugcompaniesinthefollowingtables.Wecautioninvestorsthatmonthlysalesdataaresubjecttoseasonality,andfirstquarterdataarelikelyimpactedbytheCNYeffect.Hengrui(600276.SS)■GrowthofoncologydrugsAiTan(apatinib),AiSu(docetaxel),AiLi(irinotecan),andAiHeng(oxaliplatin)deceleratedto19%,-3%,2%,and-4%YoYinOct17,vs.80%,10%,20%,and-2%in3Q17,vs.141%,1%,15%,and0%in1H17,andvs.637%,4%,13%,and0%in2016.■SalesofanestheticdrugsKaiTeLi(sevoflurane)andIoversolweredown3%and2%YoYinOct,vs.-8%/16%growthin3Q17,vs.21%/19%in1H17,andvs.25%/18%in2016.Figure2:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiTanFigure3:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiSu0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%0510152025AiTanYoYgrowth-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070AiSuYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure4:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiLiFigure5:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiHeng-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0510152025303540AiLiYoYgrowth-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202530AiHengYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage4DeutscheBankAG/HongKong18December2017HealthCareChinaHealthcareFigure6:Three-monthrollingaverageforAtracuriumseriesFigure7:Three-monthrollingaverageforIoversol0%5%10%15%20%